you need 5 stacks before u kill it. noob

This game diablows. There was more enjoyment by simply creating the portal to the secret cow level than any moment in diablo 3, combined.

As for the op try relogging, its weird but whenever one of my friends got dry few times in a row, they relog and get next key/organ or whatever. Coincidence or way to reset rng? No idea.

Its very unlikely to have such bad luck, but ofc possible, chance is rolled each time u kill warden/boss.

I am from Brazil, i am 30 years old, sorry for the bad english.

I tried to submit a ticket about this, but i was unable to find any option who let me type to explain my problem (this is ridiculous). So i am writing here to get some help.

My character is bugged. I have a barb lvl 60, with paragon lvl 37, i did the run to drop the terror key, from the boss who drops ice from the sky, i know its the correct boss to drop the key, but i CANT make it to drop!. I made exactly 33 tries with nefalem at 5 and MP4.

Tried to get the key with a friend in party too for 5 times at MP5 and nefalem at 5, no deal.

What the heck is going on?

Why i cant get de damn key?

33 tries with max nefalem and MP4 is not enough?

The character name is Rivotril (barb).

Please help me.

Try MP 10 and I will make you sure you will get one ;)

Something IS different as 40% is 40% so after 33 runs that OP claims then he should have 40% of 33 runs (approx), as keys!

Don't go giving me this RNG crap, it's 40% at MP4.

Add me Zed#1489 and I will SNS MP10 for you to get you a key.

43 tries without sucess? Monster power 4?

Let crunch the odds for you. 40% chance key will drop, 60% will not drop (0.6)

0.6^43 = 2.89 * 10^-10

*100 (for percent) = 0.000000029% chance of this happening

Killer odds man. Assuming you are telling the truth, I think you account is indeed bugged. Try one run on mp10 and see if you get the key. And any additional magic find does not improve chances btw. You just need 5 stack NV.

It doesnt matter how many times this happens. Every run is independent of the other runs. Each run has a 40% chance to drop the key. While it is highly unlikely to not get a key drop 43 times...it is indeed possible. Also im pretty sure that there is some amazing exaggeration going on here.

Another thing to remember is that he never even said he was doing this on inferno. I know people who have run the keywarden on Hell MP7 without realizing it until the 5th run. This guy seems like the type who would do that.

Uh, yeah, they're independent, but the streak is practically impossible. (His math is correct. I believe a similar occurrence would be a 1 in 1000 drop that you just got 3x in a row. In D3 terms, think getting 2 epic legendary drops in the same area. The odds are so low you don't even consider it.)

Him being on Hell instead of Inferno sounds like what's going on though. Otherwise, that's a seriously bad case of RNG....

That was just to call the OPs attention, all rest is in English.

I recommend you do a post in the bug report forum. If you are telling the truth and doing everything right there is probably a bug. Math below, you may quote it there to support your petition.

Also, there is no such thing as Law of Averages.

For the probabilities,

0.000000029% is the chance of this happening to you specifically. While I agree that's what matters for you, to have an idea if this is a bug we need to know the probability of this happening to at least one person of all playing.

Call A this event (not getting the key in 43 runs in MP4).

And P(A) = 0.000000029% for a single person.

Probability of getting at least 1 key in 43 runs in MP4:

P(A') = 1 - P(A) = 99.999999971%

Assuming 10,000,000 players (there are probably less), then chance of everyone getting at least 1 key in 43 runs in MP4 is:

P(A')^(10^7) = 99.97113

Probability of at least one person not getting at least 1 key in 43 runs in MP4:

1 - P(A')^(10^7) = 0.02887 %

That's what matters to see if this is a bug.

Conclusion: Even if there are 10,000,000 players the chance of this happening to someone at random are ridiculously low. Less than 1%. Less than 0.1%.

12/10/2012 10:58 AMPosted by EnderI've encountered this bug before, deleting your account should fix the problem.

ROFL oh man... thats good

I am from Brazil, i am 30 years old, sorry for the bad english.

I tried to submit a ticket about this, but i was unable to find any option who let me type to explain my problem (this is ridiculous). So i am writing here to get some help.

My character is bugged. I have a barb lvl 60, with paragon lvl 37, i did the run to drop the terror key, from the boss who drops ice from the sky, i know its the correct boss to drop the key, but i CANT make it to drop!. I made exactly 33 tries with nefalem at 5 and MP4.

Tried to get the key with a friend in party too for 5 times at MP5 and nefalem at 5, no deal.

What the heck is going on?

Why i cant get de damn key?

33 tries with max nefalem and MP4 is not enough?

The character name is Rivotril (barb).

Please help me.

33 TRIES? even if it's bad luck it's not justified...

The probability that no one player sees a dry spell of 33 key warden kills on mp 4 isn't as rare as you might think. If one million people world wide do 33 key warden runs the probability that someone doesn't hit a dry spell of 33 key warden kills in a row = (1 - .6^33)^1,000,000. that comes out to about 0.95. That basically means that with one million people actively doing key runs someone will hit a dry spell as bad as yours 5% of the time. 5% is a pretty big chance, so one person out of a million has to bite the bullet more often then we want to accept.

There's a forum bias going on here as well. We don't post about being blessed by luck as much as being cursed by it. That means that if you read the forums it will probably bias you into thinking that drop rates are worse than they should be (i.e. people are quick to post their own personal experience of extremely bad luck yet the community isn't counterbalancing it with their own personal experiences of good luck).

Dá uma lida aqui:That was just to call the OPs attention, all rest is in English.I recommend you do a post in the bug report forum. If you are telling the truth and doing everything right there is probably a bug. Math below, you may quote it there to support your petition.Also, there is no such thing as Law of Averages.For the probabilities,0.000000029% is the chance of this happening to you specifically. While I agree that's what matters for you, to have an idea if this is a bug we need to know the probability of this happening to at least one person of all playing.Call A this event (not getting the key in 43 runs in MP4).And P(A) = 0.000000029% for a single person.Probability of getting at least 1 key in 43 runs in MP4:P(A') = 1 - P(A) = 99.999999971%Assuming 10,000,000 players (there are probably less), then chance of everyone getting at least 1 key in 43 runs in MP4 is:P(A')^(10^7) = 99.97113Probability of at least one person not getting at least 1 key in 43 runs in MP4:1 - P(A')^(10^7) = 0.02887 %That's what matters to see if this is a bug.Conclusion: Even if there are 10,000,000 players the chance of this happening to someone at random are ridiculously low. Less than 1%. Less than 0.1%.

Yeah, 43 is rare even for a relatively large population. However, we need to keep in mind that each player can generate multiple strings of 43 keywarden kills. Given enough time, even an event as rare as 43 kills in a row with no key will happen. When it happens it happens to one or two unlucky few. We can only conclude this is a real problem if dozens of players start hitting dry spells similar in length.