match-making based on your deck archetype

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https://imgur.com/vRn5ENy

I can see where the first 4 block begins 3rd from the bottom. The bottom 2 are a part of a 4 block that extends off the page.

Every hunter is a negative less than -50% matchup(except recruit) which means that was most likely a control lock or even lock surrounding those hunters for one favorable matchup.

3 unfavorable 1 favorable

Next you have Priest, Mage, Warrior, Rogue, based on the meta at that time most likely Combo, Clone, or Quest Priest all favorable matchups. Mage Big Spell or Odd both unfavorable, Warrior most likely Odd or Quest at that time, both unfavorable. Rogue most likely Odd, unfavorable

3 unfavorable 1 favorable

next 3 hunters and a shaman, All three hunters all unfavorable, which means that's most likely a midrange shaman unless one of those hunters is recruit.

That's 3 unfavorable 1 favorable

System working perfectly, and even though I can call the matchups blind by knowing the system lol still downvoted, confirmation bias is a hellva drug.
01/22/2019 01:03 PMPosted by Mand
Except for the fact that, you know, the millions of recorded Hearthstone matches don’t show any evidence of this. And the direct explanations from Dev about what is and is not included in the matchmaker. And your COMPLETE lack of justification for allegedly knowing the innermost secrets of the matchmaking algorithm, except for you totally know people.

Again, to get down to the bottom line:

If you think the developers of a videogame are lying to you in order to make you lose, you should stop playing it.


There isn't a single program in the world tracking an accounts overall winrate just a decks.

So there was actually nothing looking for it, once you know the parameters it's impossible to miss, but without knowing how it works it's like looking for a needle in a haystack. Plus everytime someone switched decks it would show it as random, not many players stick to a single deck and than pour of that seasons history looking for patterns. Nothing in the deck trackers would show it either so all those tracked game matches are irrelevant.

Something like .001% of the population could detect the patterns in old games like pac man and donkey kong so it's totally normal the majority of players would miss it.

I gave 240 games with the pattern repeating 60 times, and then Eggs gave 100 more and showed it in his lol so you can keep saying it's just my opinion but I provided evidence of it at play.
So...your “calling the matchups blind” consists of predicting Hunter will show up a lot?

Wow. Just thrilling.

What you call patterns is, in fact, your confirmation bias.
01/22/2019 01:43 PMPosted by Fallen
01/22/2019 01:03 PMPosted by Mand
Except for the fact that, you know, the millions of recorded Hearthstone matches don’t show any evidence of this. And the direct explanations from Dev about what is and is not included in the matchmaker. And your COMPLETE lack of justification for allegedly knowing the innermost secrets of the matchmaking algorithm, except for you totally know people.

Again, to get down to the bottom line:

If you think the developers of a videogame are lying to you in order to make you lose, you should stop playing it.


There isn't a single program in the world tracking an accounts overall winrate just a decks.

So there was actually nothing looking for it, once you know the parameters it's impossible to miss, but without knowing how it works it's like looking for a needle in a haystack. Plus everytime someone switched decks it would show it as random, not many players stick to a single deck and than pour of that seasons history looking for patterns. Nothing in the deck trackers would show it either so all those tracked game matches are irrelevant.

Something like .001% of the population could detect the patterns in old games like pac man and donkey kong so it's totally normal the majority of players would miss it.


We have access to millions of publicly streamed games, live, and they’re all recorded. They’re even tied to individual accounts! And yet nothing.

Oh, right, I forgot. They’re streamers, so the game must roll out the red carpet for them.
01/22/2019 01:44 PMPosted by Mand
So...your “calling the matchups blind” consists of predicting Hunter will show up a lot?

Wow. Just thrilling.

What you call patterns is, in fact, your confirmation bias.


A distinct repeating pattern of 3 unfavorable matchups followed by 1 favorable at a benchmark of a winrate at 55% is quantifiable data.

Your refusal to acknowledge it is confirmation bias.

And I called the matchups based on him playing a miracle rogue and knowing the winrate percentages of the decks he could possibly face. By plugging in the formula I can know which decks he was matched against. The fact that they were hunters is irreverent the fact that miracle rogue has a negative winrate vs every hunter besides recruit is relevant.

And we just proved how a player can literally submit the pattern in effect from a decktracker in an effort to disprove it, while being totally oblivious to it happening right infront of them.

It's very clever it was designed to be.
Or...it’s someone successfully climbing the ladder from rank 8 to rank 6 before the end of the month drop back to 10.

Putting aside the fact that I don’t know why I should have to care about your matchup favorability opinions, why didn’t the system prevent it, if that’s your goal? Plenty of people climb the ladder, with short-term winrates a lot higher than 55%. Kibler did it live where he went 28-8 with big hand elemental mage, peaking at rank 17 legend. Why was this allowed?
01/22/2019 02:05 PMPosted by Mand
Or...it’s someone successfully climbing the ladder from rank 8 to rank 6 before the end of the month drop back to 10.

Putting aside the fact that I don’t know why I should have to care about your matchup favorability opinions, why didn’t the system prevent it, if that’s your goal? Plenty of people climb the ladder, with short-term winrates a lot higher than 55%. Kibler did it live where he went 28-8 with big hand elemental mage, peaking at rank 17 legend. Why was this allowed?


The system can't prevent anything, you should probably actually read the thread because you don't seem to understand what we are actually saying.

Once an ACCOUNTs(not deck) winrate of beyond 54% is attained you will be given 3 unfavorable matchups and one favorable every 4 matches, from whats available in the player pool.

This cannot force you to lose or win, it just makes losing more likely, I'm sure the same happens in reverse when your winrate drops to 44% but I can't prove that.

You can still win the majority of those unfavorable matchups as both Eggs and my Decktracker show.
How are you so sure it’s that specific? 54%, why that cutoff? Why 3 games out of 4?
01/22/2019 02:17 PMPosted by Mand
How are you so sure it’s that specific? 54%, why that cutoff? Why 3 games out of 4?


LOL I have absolutely no clue, that's just the way it works.

I know it begins at a 55% winrate and then spits out 3 unfavorable -50% winrate matchups and 1 favorable plus 50% winrate matchup in blocks of 4 games from that point on.

It's what I observed happening 60 repeatable times in 240 games, but it tracks it by account so you would only notice it if you played with the same deck for the entire season, never switched(Or tracked the percentages from the switched deck and calculated them in) and knew what to look for.

Because the favorable matchup can fall anywhere within the 4 match block it's nearly impossible to detect unless you knew what to look for. Especially when you consider its tracking winrate by account not deck.
It seems unlikely to me,that if a system like this is in place,(which i do believe just to be clear) that it would take lifetime winrates. it would probably reset with the start of every new ladder season,or at the slowest with every new expansion.
Feeding this 3 unfavorable 1 favorable matchup once you are above 55% also means that the opposite (or close to it,could be spread out ) must happen,players getting 3 favorable and 1 unfavorable matchup,presumably when the winrate has dropped below 45%.

Just a few parameters for those who want to test either of the 2 scenarios (both above 55% and below 45%). The lower scenario would be much easier to test for many people because they can simply concede till they are sub 45%.
It has to be a clearly defined meta deck,preferably tier 1 With no specific tech cards.just to be sure.
People could also try gaming the system,which is done to some extend already when you have a homebrew thats good against the meta.
How would blizzard identify a deck as dr hunter? The cube alone could be enough but maybe there are more cards. Same for other decks,if you discover what cards blizzard uses to identify a deck you can maybe play around with it a little bit.
Its funny that off meta decks do so well in high legend. Like boar control streaming his mech egg paladin deck at rank 20 past few days,or kolento about 1 month ago with some druid deck. maybe those decks are not in the system and cant be fed the favorable and unfavorable matchups. Its noticable when you watch streams,people often do very well with homebrew/non meta.

The system probably wont work right after a new expansion has come out,first the meta has to settle. Though it could still be used for all the old decks from the previous meta. It also means that adepting to the meta by using a meta deck is completely pointless. There could be 75% hunters at your rank but if you are smart and play counter to hunter,you still wont gain anything from it. That takes away some of the fun and rewards for beeing able to read the meta and adjust to this.

Would like to ask blizzard to turn of this matchmaking system. It does not make the game more fun on the contrary. If you play well you should be rewarded,and if you adjust well to the meta you should also be rewarded.
who cares if the top players get 75% winrate while playing against equall opponents? They then deserved it. And the players winning 25% they will drop quickly and meet less skilled opponents. Maybe this is why blizzard want end esports for hs,its not esports worthy if a system like this is in place.

People have complained about switching deck and still facing more or less hard counter right after switch since like forever,everyone knows its happening and this explains perfectly why and how its happening.
Its annoying when people are still trying to defend the opposite while it really is pretty obvious.

Gaming the system is probably be the best response (besides quitting because a system like this is appaling for every competitive gamer) the system is very punishing for positive winrate players who play meta decks and is rewarding off meta above 55% winrate (and equally non rewarding when playing non meta below 45% winrate because then you dont get the extra favorable matchups )it could be worth it to play a slightly worse deck if that means the system can no longer properly recognize your deck and feed accordingly but that probably will be impossible,because a dr hunter without cube would be much weaker for example.

Maybe its done in arena as well though it will be less accurate as it cant take into account synergys. But they could rate every deck with a score like hs arena does and then comsider all decks above the median as favored and all decks below the median score as unfavored.

And i honestly do not understand the downvotes op gets. He has been polite and not judgemental,replying to all counter arguments. Its right there in front of everyones eyes,the patern is undeniable. It is happening. Downvotes is not going to make the patern go away,it will still be there. though maybe blizz will now try adjust the patern to make it a bit less obvious lol.
55% and blocks of 4,they probably thought noone would ever find it.

Blizz should come out with this,admit it and then we can have an open discussion about the merits of system like this. (I know,not gonna happen)
It seems unlikely to me,that if a system like this is in place,(which i do believe just to be clear) that it would take lifetime winrates. it would probably reset with the start of every new ladder season,or at the slowest with every new expansion.
Feeding this 3 unfavorable 1 favorable matchup once you are above 55% also means that the opposite (or close to it,could be spread out ) must happen,players getting 3 favorable and 1 unfavorable matchup,presumably when the winrate has dropped below 45%.

Just a few parameters for those who want to test either of the 2 scenarios (both above 55% and below 45%). The lower scenario would be much easier to test for many people because they can simply concede till they are sub 45%.
It has to be a clearly defined meta deck,preferably tier 1 With no specific tech cards.just to be sure.
People could also try gaming the system,which is done to some extend already when you have a homebrew thats good against the meta.
How would blizzard identify a deck as dr hunter? The cube alone could be enough but maybe there are more cards. Same for other decks,if you discover what cards blizzard uses to identify a deck you can maybe play around with it a little bit.
Its funny that off meta decks do so well in high legend. Like boar control streaming his mech egg paladin deck at rank 20 past few days,or kolento about 1 month ago with some druid deck. maybe those decks are not in the system and cant be fed the favorable and unfavorable matchups. Its noticable when you watch streams,people often do very well with homebrew/non meta.

The system probably wont work right after a new expansion has come out,first the meta has to settle. Though it could still be used for all the old decks from the previous meta. It also means that adepting to the meta by using a meta deck is completely pointless. There could be 75% hunters at your rank but if you are smart and play counter to hunter,you still wont gain anything from it. That takes away some of the fun and rewards for beeing able to read the meta and adjust to this.

Would like to ask blizzard to turn of this matchmaking system. It does not make the game more fun on the contrary. If you play well you should be rewarded,and if you adjust well to the ,eta you should also be rewarded.
who cares if the top players get 75% winrate while playing against equall opponents? They then deserved it. And the players winning 25% they will drop quickly and meeting less skilled opponents. Maybe this is why blizzard want end esports for hs,its not esports worthy if a system like this is in place.

Anyway people doubting this is in place they are not to be taken seriously. People have complained about switching deck and still facing more or less hard counter right after switch since like forever,everyone knows its happening and this explains perfectly why and how its happening.
Its annoying when people are still trying to defend the oppositie while it really is pretty obvious.

Gaming the system is probably be the best response (besides quitting because a system like this is appaling for every competitive gamer) it could be worth it to play a slightly worse deck if that means the system can no longer properly recognize your deck and feed accordingly.


It does reset each season and it actually analyses the entire deck, so teching won't matter. I use Hsreplay to match the winrates of a deck type to a degree but the system can find a counter knowing the exact tech card difference.

I made a mech/secret hunter that was doing really well, and I ran into an Odd Warrior running EMP Operatives lmao.

I never seen a single person run that card in ranked until I made that deck lol. So it definitely analyzes the entire deck and finds a counter based off your cards and not deck type. When you make a homebrew thats good against the current netdeck meta, you'll start seeing other homebrews in ranked that are counters to your homebrew lol. Of course if you make a truly unique and powerful deck they won't be able to find you counters.

I just used the Hsreplay winrates to find the pattern because they have loads of data from games.
01/22/2019 03:08 PMPosted by Rassy
And i honestly do not understand the downvotes op gets. He has been polite and not judgemental,replying to all counter arguments. Its right there in front of everyones eyes,the patern is undeniable. It is happening. Downvotes is not going to make the patern go away,it will still be there. though maybe blizz will now try adjust the patern to make it a bit less obvious lol.
55% and blocks of 4,they probably thought noone would ever find it.

Blizz should come out with this,admit it and then we can have an open discussion about the merits of system like this. (I know,not gonna happen)


I really appreciate the support, but what they will most likely do, is perma ban me, lock or delete the thread. Release a statement saying "We match only by rank and MMR nothing to see here folks".

And patch the program changing how it works.
01/20/2019 03:45 PMPosted by NugSss
I love how there are so many people claiming tin foil hats are being worn, when it fact they haven't read up on the matter themselves....

https://playhearthstone.com/en-us/blog/22788308

They specifically state in this article how they are attempting to reach a 50% win rate.


Please read the articles you post. It is important to not make assumptions based off the case you want to provide, but off the actual information provided. This article is about reaching a 50/50 overall win rate based off balance - a process used by just about every game, not just Hearthstone and not just Blizzard.

The title, as well as the different topics in the article discuss about balancing cards. Through cards being balanced, players will fall into their respected ranks based off skill. From there, you win games where your skill is higher and lose games when your opponent is better. The goal is for this ratio to end around 50%. This is covered more eloquently in the sections titled “Solving Constrained Optimization Problems”.

01/20/2019 03:45 PMPosted by NugSss
I honestly think hearthstone employees and mods are in these forums down voting everyone.


We don’t need to. There are plenty who understand meta, balance and matchmaking enough who disagree.

01/20/2019 03:45 PMPosted by NugSss
Consistent hearthstone players are not down voting , it is either the casuals , or employees.


This is a tactic I see quite often. Trying to dissuade someone from downvoting your comment by insulting them or putting them into a certain group. If you honestly wanted to have a conversation, may I suggest a route of being open to differing opinions and not immediately look to put down anyone who doesn’t buy into your theory?

01/20/2019 03:57 PMPosted by Fallen
While it's pretty damned obvious to anyone with high rank who has a brain, they have cultivated stupidity on these forums by banning anyone who posts stuff like you just did.


Incorrect. The bans come when someone starts insulting others because they don’t agree with them. These conversations have been locked because they don’t go anywhere and add nothing to the topic. If you wish to believe the game is rigged, you are free to think what you like. It has been stated time and again that is not the case. Instead of going back and forth over a topic that has no weight, everyone else just moves on. I have tried on multiple occasions to leave this topic open in threads to be discussed. However, it 100% of the times ends up with someone making comments as you just did, instead of adding any real information and cause a flame war. Then when the threads get shut down, some think spamming the topic is the way to make a point. This is what leads to action being taken. I’ve never suspended someone for a specific topic, just the delivery.

01/20/2019 04:42 PMPosted by NugSss
https://kotaku.com/activision-patents-matchmaking-that-encourages-players-1819630937

To put it simply this article states that a lesser rogue will get grouped with a fully kitted rogue that has the cards the lesser rogue wants and needs to influence him to purchase the cards.


Also incorrect. I have explained everything around this article multiple times. As well, others who have read and researched the matter have put together some pretty in-depth explanations about what it actually is and means. I would encourage you to research the matter further.

01/20/2019 04:42 PMPosted by NugSss
Not only that but the cards the lesser rogue needs would have a greater impact in the game at hand.


So “the patent” tells players what and how to play their cards? There are a lot of human interactions left out in assuming this could be applied to a CCG.

01/20/2019 06:34 PMPosted by NugSss
The article specifically states that you will receive the powerful cards more often than not, that is not random, that is giving better cards higher probabilities to drop.


“The more weight a card has, the higher the chance that you’ll see it during a draft.” <- During the draft, not the match. The how and why for this are also explained in the article. Has nothing to do with in-game.

01/20/2019 07:06 PMPosted by Fallen
LOL it's really not hard to see, if you want to see it, if you don't want to see it you never will, but it isn't hidden at all.


If anyone is presenting data like this, I would encourage them to provide the ranks they are playing at as well. Your wins came early on as you moved up. You then ran into players at your appropriate level, where you started to lose more often.

If a Legend ranked player started to play at rank 25, it would be safe to assume that they would have some pretty strong win streaks until they started running into other higher skilled players. At which point, they would start to see more losses than previously. This isn’t a super computer rigging your game. This is how MMR based system work.

01/22/2019 03:08 PMPosted by Rassy
Blizz should come out with this,admit it and then we can have an open discussion about the merits of system like this. (I know,not gonna happen)


Because it isn’t. That HAS been stated time and again.

01/22/2019 04:10 PMPosted by Fallen
I really appreciate the support, but what they will most likely do, is perma ban me, lock or delete the thread. Release a statement saying "We match only by rank and MMR nothing to see here folks".


Why? Once again – actions are taken over delivery, not topic.

However, I will indeed be locking this thread, but this has nothing to do with you or any specific person. I covered the reason above as well as many other times in these threads.

Hearthstone is not rigged. There is no super program, watching how much you win, then going through your deck, scouring your rank for a counter, matching you (in the moments the matchmaker takes to pair you) in the hopes your opponent plays as needed to defeat you or whatever else this alleged program does. It just isn’t happening, but everyone is free to believe what you like.

Cheers

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