Prince Keleseth on turn 2

Play Mode Discussion
I know we had this topic before, I know a lot of you said that you play it and that you don't play Keleseth on turn 2 too often, but out of last 10 games against Keleseth, he was played on turn 2, 7 times (last 4 games in a row even)... It's not his presence that I am fascinated by, but how come he's not played on turn 3+, its the precise moment of his entrance that is messed up, he either comes in in turn 2 or he doesn't comes in at all... I don't think probality of that card is equal to probability of other cards in the deck, that should be stated on the card...
He never seems to visit me until he is pretty useless. But that’s how card games work.
11/07/2018 11:58 AMPosted by ZombieSlav
I know we had this topic before, I know a lot of you said that you play it and that you don't play Keleseth on turn 2 too often, but out of last 10 games against Keleseth, he was played on turn 2, 7 times (last 4 games in a row even)... It's not his presence that I am fascinated by, but how come he's not played on turn 3+, its the precise moment of his entrance that is messed up, he either comes in in turn 2 or he doesn't comes in at all... I don't think probality of that card is equal to probability of other cards in the deck, that should be stated on the card...


There could be a reason not to play him on 3. A 2/2 is not a good tempo play on turn 3. If you're in a match-up where every piece of tempo matters it can happen.

Mulligan's also filter through 6-8 cards of your 30 card deck , which isn't too insane of a probability to reliably get cards you want.

Not to mention our brains are designed to focus on negative events. We don't recollect when Keleseth doesn't come out, only when it does.
most decks that run him will hard mull for him in the starting hate. So if you figure 6-8 cards trying to get it, plus your first two raws, you have 8-10 chances to get it, which is about a third of your deck. that's decent odds of getting it for turn 2.
11/07/2018 12:33 PMPosted by xlux
11/07/2018 11:58 AMPosted by ZombieSlav
I know we had this topic before, I know a lot of you said that you play it and that you don't play Keleseth on turn 2 too often, but out of last 10 games against Keleseth, he was played on turn 2, 7 times (last 4 games in a row even)... It's not his presence that I am fascinated by, but how come he's not played on turn 3+, its the precise moment of his entrance that is messed up, he either comes in in turn 2 or he doesn't comes in at all... I don't think probality of that card is equal to probability of other cards in the deck, that should be stated on the card...


There could be a reason not to play him on 3. A 2/2 is not a good tempo play on turn 3. If you're in a match-up where every piece of tempo matters it can happen.

Mulligan's also filter through 6-8 cards of your 30 card deck , which isn't too insane of a probability to reliably get cards you want.

Not to mention our brains are designed to focus on negative events. We don't recollect when Keleseth doesn't come out, only when it does.


I think the OP means that it is always in his opponent's opening hand, or it is in like...the bottom 15 of their deck. No in between.
@Jekkies

But they are basing that only on the fact they dont see it played on turn 3 or 4.

In a tempo mirror it can easily be a bad play on any turn but 2. You cant afford negative tempo at all in the mirror. They could have drawn it, but opted to play real tempo plays instead off curve.

Those are blind spots in this posters data evaluation. It's also why eye witness testimony is completely ignored in science. The limitations of our perception ruin it.

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