RNG/Luck

Play Mode Discussion
So I've been a hearthstone player since release. Despite my luck being horrible since day 1 I continue to play and push. I love this game that much. But....... Why does it seem like some players always have that lucky side to them? Streamers. Youtubers. Whatever. In my years of experience I've found that some players just have bad luck. No matter how much they play. Some players have great luck. All of the time. Why does this seem too true? What is it about Hearthstone that allows some players to thrive because of luck and others to drown in bad luck even if they're decent players? Why can't I catch a break? =P
Because Luck is force multiplier for Experience, Planning, and Resource Management.

People who have a lot of Experience, are good at Planning, and have skilled Resource Management can win games without Luck. Luck can help them, but they don't always need it.

People who lack Experience, who aren't good at Planning, and have poor Resource Management skills will sometimes have Luck operate in their favor ... but when Luck isn't on their side? Sucks to be them.
11/01/2018 03:41 PMPosted by TheRiddler
Because Luck is force multiplier for Experience, Planning, and Resource Management.

People who have a lot of Experience, are good at Planning, and have skilled Resource Management can win games without Luck. Luck can help them, but they don't always need it.

People who lack Experience, who aren't good at Planning, and have poor Resource Management skills will sometimes have Luck operate in their favor ... but when Luck isn't on their side? Sucks to be them.


I understand that. I'm not referring to your general luck vs experience. I'm talking about your incredible situations that tend to always go in the favor of specific players. Your top decks and your spell rng.
It’s just the way it goes with games that have a lot of inherent rng, draw, etc types of luck in them. It’s supposed to even out over time as they claim but I’ve never seen a statistic that says or proves when that actually happens. sure, you can manage this stuff to some extent but let’s be honest here: it is very possible for one person to be luckier than another person over the course of even thousands of games. I depends on the decks you play too. Some are more likely to be affected by rng and crazy swings.

Take the classic coin flip scenario. If you flip a coin 1,000 times then the "stats" say it SHOULD be exactly 500 heads and 500 tails, right? But, go ahead and do the test like a hundred times. I bet it hardly ever actually ends up that. More likely you’ll see like 560 heads and 440 tails or some results like that. Uh oh. What happened to my "lock" of pure 50/50 split. It’s just probabilities, that’s all.

Easier way to simulate is to write a quick computer program or script that simply generates a random(or picks between two numbers we'll say) number....either a 1 or a 2. Run it 10,000 iterations. See how many times it’s a 50/50 split. ;)

that being said, it IS true that you can help yourself with better in game decisions and learn the strong decks. But ultimately, the game has a lot of rng and chance built into it. Just how it is.
11/01/2018 03:41 PMPosted by TheRiddler
but when Luck isn't on their side? Sucks to be them.

Doesn't matter who you are. If luck isn't on your side it sucks.
Some elements of luck can be controlled in this game. Others are just out of the blue and sometimes feature a very wide variance. We all remember what a clown fiesta the original Yogg-Saron was, and it was played regularly as a Hail Mary.
11/01/2018 04:55 PMPosted by Spudnuts

I understand that. I'm not referring to your general luck vs experience. I'm talking about your incredible situations that tend to always go in the favor of specific players. Your top decks and your spell rng.


Because people tend to remember bad things, so when they get favoured by luck, they forget it fast. Or they take their luck for granted. Like they topdeck the best possible card it's skill. Their opponent does, it's RNG.
I've been playing this game for 4+ years. I love how DruidFanBoy and others like him will jabber on and on about how much 'skill' HS requires.

Memory, deductive reasoning, and experience - absolutely. Other than that, this game is like 80-90% card draw. I've had this debate so many times it's just silly at this point. But if you've been playing for any extended period of time then I regard you as an absolute fool if you still say the game is more than skill based than luck of the draw.

We have all won and lost countless games against various types of opponents that simply came down to what cards each had In their hands during critical moments, and who out drew the other guy in the end.

It's just that simple. Oh and by the way - When you have the resources to literally own every single card in the entire HS catalogue, like the 'pros' and the streamers and all the top legendary players do, then the ability to form MULTIPLE incredible decks that, combined with experience and decent card draw, are capable of outperforming other decks/players most of the time, well that would certainly give the appearance of the game being more skill based, wouldn't it?
11/01/2018 03:24 PMPosted by Spudnuts
Why does it seem like some players always have that lucky side to them? Streamers. Youtubers. Whatever.

Remember that the youtube highlights you see from Toast's/Kibler's/etc stream is one game out of a full day of streaming.
Sometimes they'll just get wrecked. Sometimes they'll wreck their opponent. Sometimes some amazing RNG shenanigans will happen. And sometimes a good game will happen.

But in the highlights you just see the RNG shenanigans or the amazing draw to save the day or whatever.
11/02/2018 02:40 AMPosted by Mikey
Take the classic coin flip scenario. If you flip a coin 1,000 times then the "stats" say it SHOULD be exactly 500 heads and 500 tails, right? But, go ahead and do the test like a hundred times. I bet it hardly ever actually ends up that. More likely you’ll see like 560 heads and 440 tails or some results like that. Uh oh. What happened to my "lock" of pure 50/50 split. It’s just probabilities, that’s all.
This is a common, but terrible, misconception about statistics.

Statisticians don't say it should be exactly 500 heads to 500 tails. They say that the expected number of heads is 500, and then they go on to actually describe the distribution, which lets you answer questions such as, "what is the probability that I get 560 heads or more?"

This is a simple binomial distribution, and the answer is 0.00008252494. That means if 10 million people each flip a coin 1000 times, approximately 825 of them will get 560 heads or more. If you also want to include those who get 560 or more tails, that number doubles to 1650, or roughly 0.0165%.

Obviously, the number of people who do this won't be exactly 1650 either, but it'll be close. And we can describe the distribution for that outcome as well.

(Also, the probability of exactly 500 heads is .025225, or 2.5225%. It's small, but it's more likely than any other specific outcome.)
11/01/2018 04:55 PMPosted by Spudnuts

I understand that. I'm not referring to your general luck vs experience. I'm talking about your incredible situations that tend to always go in the favor of specific players. Your top decks and your spell rng.


I think one area that is not usually mentioned is the visibility of certain players.

Example:
Youtuber usually extract specific games that favors their agenda and viewership, which may tend to omit bad rng and promote good rng clips.
Streamers may have practiced lots before streaming. That reduce the rng factors that may affect the game.

Look at WowHobbs that usually plays a meme-ish deck where you can see how rng affects his play.
11/02/2018 06:39 AMPosted by NightRaven
I've been playing this game for 4+ years. I love how DruidFanBoy and others like him will jabber on and on about how much 'skill' HS requires.

Memory, deductive reasoning, and experience - absolutely. Other than that, this game is like 80-90% card draw. I've had this debate so many times it's just silly at this point. But if you've been playing for any extended period of time then I regard you as an absolute fool if you still say the game is more than skill based than luck of the draw.

We have all won and lost countless games against various types of opponents that simply came down to what cards each had In their hands during critical moments, and who out drew the other guy in the end.

It's just that simple. Oh and by the way - When you have the resources to literally own every single card in the entire HS catalogue, like the 'pros' and the streamers and all the top legendary players do, then the ability to form MULTIPLE incredible decks that, combined with experience and decent card draw, are capable of outperforming other decks/players most of the time, well that would certainly give the appearance of the game being more skill based, wouldn't it?


DING DING!
11/02/2018 08:33 AMPosted by ilikeeggs
11/02/2018 02:40 AMPosted by Mikey
Take the classic coin flip scenario. If you flip a coin 1,000 times then the "stats" say it SHOULD be exactly 500 heads and 500 tails, right? But, go ahead and do the test like a hundred times. I bet it hardly ever actually ends up that. More likely you’ll see like 560 heads and 440 tails or some results like that. Uh oh. What happened to my "lock" of pure 50/50 split. It’s just probabilities, that’s all.
This is a common, but terrible, misconception about statistics.

Statisticians don't say it should be exactly 500 heads to 500 tails. They say that the expected number of heads is 500, and then they go on to actually describe the distribution, which lets you answer questions such as, "what is the probability that I get 560 heads or more?"

This is a simple binomial distribution, and the answer is 0.00008252494. That means if 10 million people each flip a coin 1000 times, approximately 825 of them will get 560 heads or more. If you also want to include those who get 560 or more tails, that number doubles to 1650, or roughly 0.0165%.

Obviously, the number of people who do this won't be exactly 1650 either, but it'll be close. And we can describe the distribution for that outcome as well.

(Also, the probability of exactly 500 heads is .025225, or 2.5225%. It's small, but it's more likely than any other specific outcome.)


How can you understand that but fail to understand that in a game with 70 million players not having a single deck with a higher than 65% winrate on Hsreplay is a sheer mathematical impossibility?

You must use confirmation bias to choose what data supports your narrative. Because you will use the rules of probability when it suits your claims and ignore it completely when it shows things happening in Hearthstone that are utterly improbable and mathematically impossible.
@NightRaven:

Thats human nature. Nobody would accept we have no control over our lifes. Nobody would like to accept some !@#$ might happen even when you do everything right and nobody likes to be labeled as totally unimportant.

Same in HS - nobody likes to accept the fact the game mechanic alone might decide the game (and not the player).
So some players decided to talk about skill - "Its a skill I have topdecked X; its a skill he hasnt draw Y; its a skill I have discovered the perfect response etc."
Yeah, they are pretty ignorant but its just a human nature. Dont be mad at them.

Some example.

You would work in a company as hard as you could, you would be one of the best. And then voila - you loose a job because that company would be decimated by rival company and you would get fired. Was that because you were bad? Nope. But %^-* like that happens and you do not have control over it at all.

You would work in a company and you would be average or even below average in your job. But your company would somehow take over the rival company and you would get raise. Do you actually deserved it? You know you dont but goodies like these happens.

Same in HS.
1)You play exactly like you should. You predict "enemy" turns, avoid making mistakes but then boom - he plays Witch Apprentice into a Volcano.

2)You stare at enemy board knowing you shouldnt let the board uncontested for another turn. Now you are facing lethal. Only a miracle might save you - boom - topdeck Flamestrike.

In all of these cases you had no control over the situation that might occur.
1) he might have played Witch Apprentice and get Totemic Might instead.
2) you might have topdeck Mana Wyrm

None of these situations are rare. I have seen it from my pov, I have seen it watching streamers and some tournament vids. Only difference is - I do not yell: "Easy game" when the rng won the game instead of me.
11/02/2018 10:01 AMPosted by haargroth
Thats human nature. Nobody would accept we have no control over our lifes. Nobody would like to accept some !@#$ might happen even when you do everything right and nobody likes to be labeled as totally unimportant.

Nobody likes to accept they are responsible for their failures either.
Going "Nothing I could do, my opponent was luckier than me" after a loss is a terrible attitude.
11/02/2018 10:16 AMPosted by Cascade
11/02/2018 10:01 AMPosted by haargroth
Thats human nature. Nobody would accept we have no control over our lifes. Nobody would like to accept some !@#$ might happen even when you do everything right and nobody likes to be labeled as totally unimportant.

Nobody likes to accept they are responsible for their failures either.
Going "Nothing I could do, my opponent was luckier than me" after a loss is a terrible attitude.


Sure. Thats what I hate about streamers too but as long as I wasnt in their place in that match it isnt right to critize their play.
11/02/2018 10:01 AMPosted by haargroth
@NightRaven:

Thats human nature. Nobody would accept we have no control over our lifes. Nobody would like to accept some !@#$ might happen even when you do everything right and nobody likes to be labeled as totally unimportant.

Same in HS - nobody likes to accept the fact the game mechanic alone might decide the game (and not the player).
So some players decided to talk about skill - "Its a skill I have topdecked X; its a skill he hasnt draw Y; its a skill I have discovered the perfect response etc."
Yeah, they are pretty ignorant but its just a human nature. Dont be mad at them.

Some example.

You would work in a company as hard as you could, you would be one of the best. And then voila - you loose a job because that company would be decimated by rival company and you would get fired. Was that because you were bad? Nope. But %^-* like that happens and you do not have control over it at all.

You would work in a company and you would be average or even below average in your job. But your company would somehow take over the rival company and you would get raise. Do you actually deserved it? You know you dont but goodies like these happens.

Same in HS.
1)You play exactly like you should. You predict "enemy" turns, avoid making mistakes but then boom - he plays Witch Apprentice into a Volcano.

2)You stare at enemy board knowing you shouldnt let the board uncontested for another turn. Now you are facing lethal. Only a miracle might save you - boom - topdeck Flamestrike.

In all of these cases you had no control over the situation that might occur.
1) he might have played Witch Apprentice and get Totemic Might instead.
2) you might have topdeck Mana Wyrm

None of these situations are rare. I have seen it from my pov, I have seen it watching streamers and some tournament vids. Only difference is - I do not yell: "Easy game" when the rng won the game instead of me.


Hahaha hey, man I'm not angry with anyone. Just cuz I think someone is foolish for believing something doesn't mean I'm angry with them. I could care less what they believe honestly as long as they don't try to force their folly on anyone else. It's all good bro. Peeeeaaaaaccceeeeee!
I played a game that I think explains the interaction between luck and skill in hearthstone fairly well.

Its bad luck to go against a meta netdeck even warlock with a homebrew odd mage.
Its luck for the even warlock to have a 3 mana 8/8 on turn 3 but it takes zero skill for them to play it. Its luck for the mage to have mirror entity in the starting hand but unlike the warlock it takes skill for the mage to know the warlock will play an 8/8 on turn 3 so the mage plays mirror entity rather than explosive runes in anticipation of the 8/8.
11/02/2018 10:16 AMPosted by Cascade

Nobody likes to accept they are responsible for their failures either.
Going "Nothing I could do, my opponent was luckier than me" after a loss is a terrible attitude.


Wooohooo that's a hot one! How is that a terrible attitude if It's true?

So giving it the old shrug and letting it roll off your back is a bad thing?

What are you supposed to? Cry and come on the forum, and rant about how your opponent played some crazy O.P. card and it should be banned immediately from the game, and your opponent cheated and you are sure of it, even though you don't have any evidence, and the devs suck, and HS is pay to win, and you are going to delete all your decks and go play some other game.....

wait a minute! Man, I'm so silly! That's what most people actually do, isn't It? Gawrsh! *blush *blush *blush
11/02/2018 11:44 AMPosted by Ypeachera
I played a game that I think explains the interaction between luck and skill in hearthstone fairly well.

Its bad luck to go against a meta netdeck even warlock with a homebrew odd mage.
Its luck for the even warlock to have a 3 mana 8/8 on turn 3 but it takes zero skill for them to play it. Its luck for the mage to have mirror entity in the starting hand but unlike the warlock it takes skill for the mage to know the warlock will play an 8/8 on turn 3 so the mage plays mirror entity rather than explosive runes in anticipation of the 8/8.


That's not skill. That's an example of correct deductive reasoning through experience. Like Gin Rummy, for example. Skill is being able to replicate a desirable outcome in a repeated and predictable fashion through elevated abilities in a particular arena. While skill can be developed through experience, having experience does not grant skill.
11/02/2018 10:16 AMPosted by Cascade
11/02/2018 10:01 AMPosted by haargroth
Thats human nature. Nobody would accept we have no control over our lifes. Nobody would like to accept some !@#$ might happen even when you do everything right and nobody likes to be labeled as totally unimportant.

Nobody likes to accept they are responsible for their failures either.
Going "Nothing I could do, my opponent was luckier than me" after a loss is a terrible attitude.


I'm higher ranked than you and hover constantly around a 60% winrate.

Wins and loses are more RNG based than skill based.

I know at first kids have a lot of trouble admitting Santa's not real.

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