Average win rate for new players

Arena Discussion
So I have been playing Hearthstone for just shy of 2 weeks now and I thought I would give Arena a try today.

My 1st run ended 4-3 and I was rewarded 80 Gold and a Rakastan Pack.

What is the average or expected win rate for a new player? And also, I wondered if anyone could look over my last 2 games to see where I could improve.

WIN: (4-2) https://hsreplay.net/replay/5MRKCK9JdxeVXSRQKKpDJC

LOSS: (4-3) https://hsreplay.net/replay/X5kzK5KsdhJZKC4GsdEJGT

I don't think I did too badly for a 1st run, but I can see some mistakes I made and would like to know how I might improve. It's the 1st time I have drafted a deck in Arena too so that was an experience.
01/02/2019 09:43 AMPosted by Xnstra
What is the average or expected win rate for a new player?
For an average player, the average run should last 3 games, as that is what you get when you win 50% of your games.
For new players, it is usually lower. However, there used to be (and perhaps still is) a separate pool of new arena players for matchmaking in the first few games, which may make your first run look favorably. But still, 4-3 for a first run is very good; even when you were matched against other beginners, you still have a better than 50% win rate.

I looked at your games. Especially the first was mostly quite good, actually. The second was a bit worse but given that you just started I am really impressed.
But you asked for feedback so here goes. I'm not harsh because I hate you, I'm harsh because you ask to be pointed to your mistakes.

In your won game, you have a very obvious misplay in turn 8. If you had played the minions in the other order, the Fungalmancer would have buffed the other minion too. You probably made the very common mistake of seeing the first thing you want to do, play it, and then think about the rest of your turn. Try to always think through all you want to do before you do anything.
I personally might have considered playing the Dire Wolf Alpha for tempo in turn 2, but you have a very control-oriented deck so I'm not going to call it a mistake - just a different option.
In turn 11, I agree with hitting the poison minion with your face, and I also agree with trading off the giant. But I would have sent the rest of your minions face. Again, a choice that can fall two ways, but since you are running low on cards and your opponent still has a full hand there is the risk of them having some good comeback mechanic. Putting them to 8 health while maintaining a wide board that includes some strong minions almost guarantees a next turn lethal. Alternatively, you could have traded face into poison, the two 1-2's into the other minions to put them at 2 health, and then played Baron Geddon.
Turn 12 you missed lethal: both minions + your weapon into opponent face + play Baron Geddon. After choosing your line, you should have held the Rampage in hand. Cards like that should in most cases be played at the start on your turn on a minion that can already attack, to prevent losing the effect to silence or removal. Especially if you apply it the the minion that is already the biggest threat. The attack with your axe into a 4-health minion served no purpose at all. It might even have enabled an extra draw chance for your opponent (not really sure whether Pyromaniac triggers if itself is killed)

In the lost game, I would not have kept Witchwood Piper. Your deck has a nice collection of lower mana cards, I would have tried to get a 1, 2, or 3 drop instead.
Coin into 2-drop can be a good playh on turn 1, but Scarab Egg provides zero tempo unless you have something in hand to force it to trigger. You did not so I would have passed turn 1. Especially because your only other 2-mana card is very weak for its stats if you cannot use its battlecry, *AND* it dies for free to your opponent's dagger. You were lucky they didn't have a 3-drop, otherwise you would have been miles behind on board by the end of turn 3.
I don't like playing the Thug on turn 3, even though you did already have a weapon. But due to already wasting the coin earlier, you were out of options, and if the opponent had not had the Phoenix it would have forced them to sacrifice their board - so given the circumstances it was okay.
Turn 5, given that you chose to use your weapon (probably correct, not 100% sure though), you should have attacked into one of the 3-health minions (it would die to the weapon's deathrattle), and played your minion AFTER that - unless you did this deliberately to play around a potential backstab?
Turn 7: Why not the Amani War Bear? I'm also not sure about your attack choices, I understand that you wanted to get value from your minions but you left both at 1 health; I would probably have suicided the Piper into the taunt so that Militia Commander would be left with 3 health.
All in all, you were behind after your misplays in the first few turns, then the opponent sealed the deal by having some perfect cards in turns 5 and 6. After that, you were fighting an uphill battle and faced with nothing but rocks and hard places. The things I would have done differently in the later turns would not have changed the final result. A better early game might have - or perhaps not, both deck and draw of your opponent were pretty strong.
I really appreciate the in depth feedback. I'll rewtch the games and compare your feedback so I can see where I can get better.

I know I made mistakes in that last game. I don't tend to rush choices however I see after where the play could be executed better. I suppose that will come with time.

I think I focus too much on control so where you say go face I sight have thought that at the time but I need to start abandon a bit deeper.

Thanks for taking the time to post that,it will surely help a lot
Hugger did a great job going through your games but I want to put a word in about the draft. I'm probably going to sound super harsh but it really is for your own good.

This is a heavy deck, and for a heavy deck you really need a decent number of 3 drops because that's where heavier decks start to contest the board more often than not. I would also have preferred more 4s.

It's also heavy in the wrong way, in my opinion. You do need more than just big bodies for a control style deck.

I think you did do a decent job picking taunts and removals.

If I were playing the deck there would be maybe 8 cards that I'd even consider keeping in a mulligan. That's really low.
No mate I appreciate the feedback.

I started hearthstone 2 weeks ago so there is still soooo much I need to learn. I tried to pick the 1st 10 as just the best cards offered as advised by Kripp then tried to balance the rest out but I guess I need some more practice..

Just did another arena run my second one.. And came out 2-3. Paid for itself but I played warlock and ballsed up loads. I don't play warlock. I'll keep practicing and in a few months I'm confident I can come out with a 4 win average. I'd like to get to a 6 win average and if I can do that within 12 months I'll be happy
01/04/2019 08:23 AMPosted by Xnstra
I'd like to get to a 6 win average and if I can do that within 12 months I'll be happy
Hey, if you manage to get there in 12 months, I'll be dripping with envy! (and admiration).

I've been playing for more than 3 years. My Arena average is roughly 4,25 wins per run, and I think that's already something to be proud of. (You need a 68% average win rate to get to 6 wins per run)
My win rate at the minute in ranked is 71% but dropping fast as I get nearer to rank 20

We'll talk in 12 months!
DUDE WTF 4-3 first run EVER that's fantastic

the global n00b average is 2.8-2.9 so u're doing well

i'm averaging like 5.5 this expansion lol cuz u just win and lose and learn

at the height of my performance i was averaging 7.8 so keep grinding u'll get there!

also i'm on NA server wrathblade#1420
Wrathblade is right, it's a fantastic performance for a new player. Like, people are surprised when I tell them that my new player winrate was abysmal (rocking that 0.83 wins per run back during the LoE meta). You just gotta practice and study and you'll get there... and watch The Lightforge, you should probably watch The Lightforge too (I probably will rewatch this week's episode, probably more than once and take notes).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IvhymNdRpw
Game 2.
The mulligan is critical I think. I would probably have tossed all my cards hoping to get either a war axe or the firefly. The egg is also better then the 2/1 silence taunt (which really is pretty weak against rogue) and heroic strike I would also prefer in hand over the 2/1 silence taunt. (which is a bit borderline card in general imo,its weak most of the time but it does have a few decent targets). The piper I would never keep,its a card that you want to draw into (I don't draft this card usually,as I think its pretty bad) and its a bad tempo play on t4. Say opponent plays yeti and you play this. He kills this for free and then you play your 2 drop to trade with his yeti. You still lost 2 mana of tempo on that affair. Its difficult for me to see this card give a good outcome in any situation other then a tempo flood deck (which your deck definitely is not)
I don't know how other players mulligan but if I have 4 or more cards that I would rather have then any of my first mulligan cards then I usually toss all,unless I see a good gameplan with some of the cards I have in hand and with opponents class taken into account. (I sometimes keep 6-8 mana drops based on this. don't automatically throw away all your cards above 4. it can be worth it to keep them depending on opponents class and your draft. If you have a tar creeper in hand you can afford to keep almost any card that you think will be good against opponent)
You did make the right play by offering it to his dagger btw,because it would cost him the dagger and he would have to re-dagger to kill your hench clan which would get you a lot of tempo and seeing that you where already in a though spot that was the best way to proceed I think. It was not an easy play to make as offering it to the dagger feels very counter intuitive. Unfortunatly he had the deal 2 damage 4 drop and after that there was not much left to do anymore. If anything is to blame in this game then its the mulligan. The war axe is strong against rogue and that's the card I would want to go for.

Your deck overall looks pretty weak so I think going 4/3 with this is great.
thanks, i really appreciate all the feedback. I have done 5 arena runs now, and 3 of them I ended up 4-3 and the other two i finished 3-3.

I'll keep pressing forward and hopefully at some point I can make it to a 7 win average, it's only been a month so from what I gather I'm not doing too badly at all :)
keep it up if you need help i'm always online

NA server wrathblade#1420 cheers bud
I noticed that you mentioned kripp's advice as part of your line of thinking, and one of the best pieces of advice I can give to a new player is watch hearthstone content creators who are good at arena, especially ones that offer behind the scenes insight. Kripparian is a good one to watch and generally offers very in depth insights that can be very helpful.

My arena play improved greatly after watching kripparian and other hearthstone streamers (I average over 6 wins now, as compared to my abysmal 1.5 average when starting). Of course, this can be a bit of a time commitment and I'd only recommend it if you also find it at least somewhat entertaining.

My personal advice, memorize as many standard cards you can and what they do, know how to make value trades, and know your deck and how it should be played (i.e. when to go for tempo or value). This is very much a numbers game and every single integer on a card matters and can make an enormous difference, especially in arena mode.

Tempo/board control is king in arena, do your best not to fall behind especially if you don't have many board clears, removals, or large taunt minions to fall back on. At the same time know when to not over-commit to a board; if you have enough control already, playing too many minions against most classes could result in a more devastating board clear. Knowing what removal and board clears each class has and how likely they are to have it is also very important.

I also mentioned memorizing cards earlier, because a good vs. bad draft absolutely makes or breaks an entire arena run. There is definitely luck involved in a draft but knowing which cards are good, bad, and which synergize with which is vital. Keep an eye on your deck's mana curve as well; you don't want a deck with too many late game cards or too much earlier game. The exception to this is that sometimes having excessive early game is good for an aggressive deck (the best class for aggressive decks tends to be hunter, warlock and rogue can work as well), though even then you don't want to only have early game.

Most of this is learned through lots of observation and practice and you seem to know some of it already. Just keep at it, you're doing great!

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