Monopoly do have more skill then HS nowadays.

Arena Discussion
I just got blastwave into "polymorph fireball frostbolt" and got killed by a 2 health mage. I love HS.
monopoly takes skill. There is even a world championship for monopoly.
I think you played against me, you were a paladin right?
Why do good arena players have consistent win rates way above 7, then? If it is pure luck?
01/14/2019 04:01 AMPosted by Lemminkäinen
Why do good arena players have consistent win rates way above 7, then? If it is pure luck?

Noone has a consistent winrate above 7. That's mathematically simply impossible. You can take a look at the top arena player list. There are only a couple hundred who have an average winrate of 7, means that he sometimes win only 4 games and sometimes like 10 games.
Your comment indicates that there are people who manage to get 7+ wins every arena run. Not possible. Simple math. I am sorry.
01/28/2019 06:38 AMPosted by Tenray
01/14/2019 04:01 AMPosted by Lemminkäinen
Why do good arena players have consistent win rates way above 7, then? If it is pure luck?

Noone has a consistent winrate above 7. That's mathematically simply impossible. You can take a look at the top arena player list. There are only a couple hundred who have an average winrate of 7, means that he sometimes win only 4 games and sometimes like 10 games.
Your comment indicates that there are people who manage to get 7+ wins every arena run. Not possible. Simple math. I am sorry.
True. But your comment sidesteps the actual issue.
There are players that consistently get 7+-averages each month. There are others that struggle to get averages above 3. How can that be when, according to the OP, "Monopoly do have more skill then HS nowadays"?
01/28/2019 12:46 PMPosted by BigHugger

There are players that consistently get 7+-averages each month. There are others that struggle to get averages above 3. How can that be when, according to the OP, "Monopoly do have more skill then HS nowadays"?


You say: "There are ..."
Of course there are and always will be people with higher averages regarding winrates. That's a normal probability distribution. I don't know what I should explain here, honestly. Simple math again.
However if you want to tell me that there are the same players then you are free to prove it. I like to be enlightened. Furthermore we do not really have transparent statistics, so therefore it's quite hard to argue because I bet the players who want to be in the top are grinding casual players at weekends.

Secondly, why should I sidestep the issue. The issue is common knowledge. All of us here are playing the same game, aren't we ?
Considering the fact that this game is a CCG where winning is heavily decided by drawing like every other card game, we have this fancy "mechanics" like adapt, discover, do x dmg to random enemies and much more.
It gets beyond me that people are still arguing if skill and not rng/luck is the driving factor to win a game.
01/28/2019 04:23 PMPosted by Tenray
However if you want to tell me that there are the same players then you are free to prove it. I like to be enlightened.
That's exactly what I'm telling you.
Blizzard publishes leaderboards each month. For ranked it is based on the high legend finishes. For Arena it is based on the best average result of 30 consecutive Arena runs - stressing consecutive because that means one cannot simply play hundreds of arena runs and pick their best 30.
Now unfortunately Blizzard publishes these on their blog which is not built in a search-engine friendly way. Finding the ratings can be challenging. But here are a few sample links:
* USA, Feb 2018: https://news.blizzard.com/en-us/hearthstone/21612977/top-hearthstone-players-february-2018
* USA, June 2018: https://news.blizzard.com/en-us/hearthstone/21952453/top-hearthstone-players-june-2018
* USA, August 2018: https://playhearthstone.com/en-us/blog/22502117/
* USA, Sep 2018: https://playhearthstone.com/en-us/blog/22568649/

If you compare the names on those lists, and take the effort to do some extra searching for the other lists, you will see that some players manage to get on that list (almost) every month.
If Arena were pure RNG, then everyone would have a statistical win rate of 50%. With a statistical win rate of 50%, one gets to 7 wins in about 9% of one's runs. You can do the math on the likelihood of getting a 7+-win average in 30 consecutive runs. And then do the math on the likelihood of not one but several players pulling off that same statistical anomaly in several months.

01/28/2019 04:23 PMPosted by Tenray
Considering the fact that this game is a CCG where winning is heavily decided by drawing like every other card game, we have this fancy "mechanics" like adapt, discover, do x dmg to random enemies and much more.
It gets beyond me that people are still arguing if skill and not rng/luck is the driving factor to win a game.
For a single game, it is a combination of luck and skill. Sometimes luck takes over, you get awful RNG, your opponent has the god draw, etc. Sometimes RNG is fairly even and skill determines the winner. And sometimes luck favors one player but yet the other wins because they just play better.
Do you play Arena yourself? If so, then how do you go about the draft? Do you just position your mouse on one of the three card positions and click rapidly to take 30 cards without bothering to check the options? Or do you look at the three options for each pick and then choose with care?
Or do you play ranked? And in that case, how do you create your decks? Do you create an empty deck and then click done to let the game put in 30 random cards? Or do you try to build a strong deck wiht good synergies and a nice curve?
In your games, do you just randomly drag cards to the board or do you look at the game state, and then decide what to play? When playing minions, do you think about positioning, e.g. putting a big boy in the middle vs Hunter and on the edge vs Mage,to play around Crushing Walls / Meteor?
After answering those questions, do you still believe this game is goverend by RNG only and no strategy is involved?

RNG vs strategy is not a binary either/or question. Rolling dice and highest score wins is purely RNG. Chess is purely strategy. But lots of games are in a spectrum in between those extremes, with the result determined by a combination of RNG and strategy. In those games, RNG can cause the best player to drop games or even go on a losing streak, and the worst player can win games the same way. But over longer periods of time the better player will always come out ahead.

You mention maths a lot. Here's a maths exercise for you. Imagine two players on a game that is based on a combination of skill and RNG. Player A is twice as skilled as player B so should win 67% of the games.
Question 1: Compute the probabilty of player A losing 5 games in a row.
Question 2: Compute the probablity of player A NOT having a recorded win rate of at least 60% after 1000 games.
01/11/2019 08:35 PMPosted by Aerotong
I just got blastwave into "polymorph fireball frostbolt" and got killed by a 2 health mage. I love HS.


Thats cause Monopoly uses a true random system, the dice, to see where you land.

If there was Hearthstone Monopoly they would make it virtual and you would notice things like.

Player one lands on chance turn 1. Huh - you always land on chance turn one. Not ver random. AND you always get advanced to go?! How is that possible with a 30 card chance deck and 2 of each card in that 30? You ALWAYS get that roll and that card on turn 1?

And it would be like that for player 2 3 and 4. You just get the same rolls, same cards, same monopolies and a certain person would always win because the game is ri...desgined to play out the same way each time.
I love how people who draft get 2 of the best cards...

Example: 2x Mass Hysteria 2x Sleepy Dragon

And I love how Mass Hysteria knows exactly how to attack each minion on the board to do a full wipe vs randomly attacking other minions etc.

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