I call BS on your arena matchmaking

Arena Discussion
Been playing this game for what like 4 or 5 years now?

I noticed something weird a long time ago in the arena.

As you win more games you play against other people who are also winning more games. Which means you fight better and better players who have better and better decks.

OK...

That's fine...

But what's been happening for the last several years now is this.

I win 3 games

I end up 3-3

I win 5 games

I end up 5-3

I win 7 games

I end up 7-3

I win 10 games

I end up 10-3

I win 2 games

I end up 2-3

I win 12 games, yay no losses

I win 6 games

I end up 6-3.

See the pattern here?

99.9% of the time I almost always lose 3 games in a row. It's like the game purposely puts you against people who basically can't lose. They have all these awesome cards with multiple legendary decks and here I am trying to throw toothpicks at them cause I got crap picks and even worse draws.

Now if the sample size of this was only like 20 or 30 arena plays I'd say sure maybe it's just RNG that i lose 3 games in a row EVERY flipping time.

But this has been going on for YEARS now. Win 5, go 5-3. Win 3, go 3-3. Win 7, go 7-3. EVERY..........FLIPPING.............TIME!

I call serious BS on this nonsense and your matchmaking needs to get fixed to fight more equal opponents. Not taking a deck with a 5 rating against ones with 100 rating 3 games in a row every time.
It certainly is strange.

All I can say is that it doesn't happen that way for me very often.
Here's my HearthArena public profile: https://www.heartharena.com/profile/bighugger

At the bottom you see a list of my recent runs. You can click any one, then go to the Results & Reweards tab to see my run progress.
If you do that, you'll see that I sometimes have a lot of wins and then a bunch of losses, like you. But I also have runs where I start with one or two losses and then a winning streak. Or runs where the losses are more or less evenly distributed.
By changing the class and/or date selector in the top, you should be able to review all my 523 recorded runs. I'm pretty sure you'll see no pattern here.

Do you have all your results recorded? If so, please send a link. I'd like to see this.

There are three possible explanations:

* Matchmaking is biased as you suggest but my account is considered special and therefor marked exempt from this. Quite unlikely, as I am not in any way special.

* Your account is considered special and therefore specifically targeted for a biased matchmaking algorithm. Possible in theory, yet very unlikely - for why would Blizzard do such a thing specifically for you?

* Matchmaking is not biased at all. You started to see a pattern perhaps after a period of weird RNG and have ever since been suffering confirmation bias. Which by the way is extremely normal and human. (In fact, this is one of the reasons why I meticulously keep records of various things, to protect myself from my human susceptibility to confirmation bias)

* Or perhaps you get emotional after the first loss and this affects the quality of your play in the rest of the run. (It's often called "tilt", and players in tournaments are known to use tricks to try to tilt their opponent to gain an advantage in the next match against the same opponent - so again a very human trait).

I think the last two theories are the most probably, but if you actually tracked all your runs the way I did I'd love to take a look for myself.
I feel you man. But I think it's because you get triggered and just make bad decisions after your first loss. Happens to me as well.
01/14/2019 09:17 AMPosted by LakiL
I feel you man. But I think it's because you get triggered and just make bad decisions after your first loss. Happens to me as well.


Yeah, probably it's just bad psychology carried from the last game...this is the first time I see someone noticing this and yeah it has happened to me a lot too
No it's more of YOU TILT cuz you lost the first game then u TILTATION 2nd game cuz of the first game then U SUPER YOLO TILT last game and u die and lose all 3 LUL i've been there done that LUL i've crashed decks cuz of 1 misplay on the first game and that tilt has carried over to all games ending my run U"RE A TILTER and or a TEMPO momentum player My suggestion when you lose a game just take a step back and chill if it aggravates you
Guys I've got more hours on a poker table than I do working.

I don't get tilted.

It's because their game assumes since you can beat people of equal decks that you can keep beating people with better decks than you.

The problem is once you start losing I don't think it puts you back DOWN in the lower ranked people back to where you should be.

It just keeps pummeling you against harder decks until you lose.

They need to put an algorithm into the game that LOWERS your opponents when you lose a game.
Hey I started out 5-0 on my last run

Wanna guess how I ended up?

Anyone?

Wanna take some bets?

Anyone.................?
01/14/2019 07:42 PMPosted by Thatguy
It's because their game assumes since you can beat people of equal decks that you can keep beating people with better decks than you.
It's not the game assuming, it's you assuming something about the game.
I don't know why you ignore my post showing my collected data and requesting yours. But until you post collected data of at least 40 consecutive arena runs, I call BS on your observations.

01/14/2019 09:17 PMPosted by Thatguy
I started out 5-0 on my last run

Wanna guess how I ended up?
That's a single run. Cool!
I can do that two. I started out 0-2 on my last run. Guess how I ended?
https://www.heartharena.com/arena-run/744zxy
Yes Blizzard purposely rigs your Match Making and just your Match Making and no one else queueing you and just you up against Special Blizzard Bots that generate the most optimal cards to counter your Arena deck to force you to never get past 6 wins. Just look at the amazing AI they have in adventure modes if you don't believe it. There is a way around it though. All you need to do is but on your Tinfoil Hat the next time you Arena.
I've noticed a similar pattern. It's not 3 losses in a row like yours though, but I have noticed that the first loss is usually a bad omen. I'll go 5 or more wins in a row but that first loss means that things are about to get crazy.

I think a lot of it has to do between the 3 and 5 wins area of arena. I believe these are where really gimmicky and or aggro decks see the most play. They're inconsistent decks so they rack up losses while also having the potential to completely highroll you into an undeserved loss.

If you're playing aggro decks yourself, losing 3 in a row is a characteristic of that since they only perform well at lower wins and while going first. Mid-range and control are more consistent archetypes that can do well going first or going second, and don't rely on any gimicks to get wins.

That said, maybe it's not tilt, but maybe it's RNG or luck related. There's a lot of times I've piloted horrible arena decks, I'm talking 61 or 62 points with no carry to 8-0 or higher. I feel thankful for that, and know that in any coming match it'll probably be the end of that decks run, because if I lose one I'm still going to be in a bracket where my deck doesn't belong and I'll be more likely to lose the next one too.

It could also be that your deck simply gets out classed. Varience is the king of arena unfortunately. That means that a great deck can be at 3-0, and an equally good or better deck can be at 3-1. Deck quality is like a kind of subfield of the matchmaking, and its varience and RNG which ultimately put the decks at the wins/losses they're at.

Maybe that's a problem with matchmaking, I think that's a valid point worth considering; that merely tracking wins and losses is only to track an underlying pattern of deck/player quality over a distance so small it's never really going to be accurate.

Over 20 games deck and player quality will become obvious. Over 3 or 5? I'm not so sure.
01/15/2019 02:24 AMPosted by BigHugger
That's a single run. Cool!
I can do that two. I started out 0-2 on my last run. Guess how I ended?
https://www.heartharena.com/arena-run/744zxy


That looked like a pretty decent and fun deck. It had a great curve, sorry it got trashed lol.
I been here since the beginning. First 12 win run was before any expo. I can tell you if you are frequently dropping 3 losses in a row like that, then you are making huge mistakes or not drafting "correctly" for the meta. It happens to me every once in a while, and certain things can cause it that are no in your control (Bad mulligans, going second, bad matchups/deck arctype) but regardless, you should see a pattern if you are such a good gambler

Also, Only example I see here is of

DRuid

Which currently (on average) is WAY BELOW

WARRIOR ROUGE WARLEOCK

Join the Conversation

Return to Forum