So..is bigpriest actually beatable?

Play Mode Discussion
02/26/2019 10:29 AMPosted by FaboanGrosb
02/26/2019 10:10 AMPosted by Madmax
So? The idea that you need to collect data on all (or even most) players for the result should to be meaningful is obvious nonsense to anyone who understands the basics of sampling. Assuming no systematic bias in data collection, a sample size of 30% of the population is more than enough to provide accurate estimates (assuming the population is bigger than, say, 100 cases).

100% is not needed, but less than 50% is also not relevant. All players who play in the wild mode will say that this deck is very common. In fact, the priest is represented by only one deck in the wild.

https://www.qualtrics.com/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/

This is a good example showing how many mothers you would need in a survey, assuming no selection bias and your sample size represents mothers in the US for various confidence intervals. For 95%, which I think is the default percentage people look for, your sample size needed is only 385 respondents. You actually prefer it to be larger to negate oddity in sampling and bad data collection but you'd be confident with around 2x (770) of the data.

So in Wild if we're capturing even 5% of games played the play rate data is fairly decent as it is recording THE OPPONENT in the Vs data. Since we do not have the updated Vs data we can rley on HSR some but there is some self-selection bias in the data.

so less than 50% is VERY relevant. For instance take the US election in both 2016 and 2018. The overall population voting was within the margin of error for BOTH elections (+/- 3%) even if in 2016, for instance, it was systemic in one direction on a regional error (Midwest) but the overall data for the US was actually MORE accurate than typical deviation from the average.

02/26/2019 10:29 AMPosted by FaboanGrosb
he priest is represented by only one deck in the wild.

Again, very very false. Of the last 5 Priests I have faced at r4 3 were Big and 2 were Dragon. Dragon Priest is a very real deck and is in the meta. Is it below Big Priest? Obviously it is as both the data you dismiss (incorrectly) and the my own personal tracker will tell me. TO say though Priest only has one deck in Wild is proving that you either don't play a ton or don't move out of a rank range much.

And again, statistics are provided, which collects 20-30% of players in the wild mode, or even less.

Also if the data is wrong on Kingsbane Aggro Rogue then would you be willing to bet on a match between the two deck done as a Best of 11 or so. I'd be more than willing to bet on Kingsbane Aggro as both the data and the theorycrafting check out that the deck should dominate Big Priest consistently. I am not a good aggro player, I will easily admit that, but with Kingsbane Aggro Rogeu when I was trying it I was 6-3 against Priest. I don't know the spread between Dragon/other and Big priest but we know, again from data, that the distribution is probably in the neignborhood of 2.5:1 or 3:1 pre-patch.
Marin (for the 0/8 chest), Overspark (turning a minion into a 1/1 or 5/5) can !@#$ up the rezz, if youre not a wl.
02/26/2019 07:52 AMPosted by Tyani

Is there even a way to defeat this opressive unfun deck?


Yes. What you need to do is make a total of 17 big priest complaint threads on this forum within a 48 hour time period. Once you accomplish this feat, blizzard will email you a secret deck code that has a 100% win rate vs. Big priest.
02/26/2019 11:05 AMPosted by Guldin
02/26/2019 07:52 AMPosted by Tyani

Is there even a way to defeat this opressive unfun deck?


Yes. What you need to do is make a total of 17 big priest complaint threads on this forum within a 48 hour time period. Once you accomplish this feat, blizzard will email you a secret deck code that has a 100% win rate vs. Big priest.


Or follow Guldin's example and play the deck, and pretend everything is fine and dandy and a turn 3 barnes into Y'shaarj into another Y'shaarj, Ragnaros or Ysera is peeeerfectly fine.
This is a good example showing how many mothers you would need in a survey, assuming no selection bias and your sample size represents mothers in the US for various confidence intervals. For 95%, which I think is the default percentage people look for, your sample size needed is only 385 respondents. You actually prefer it to be larger to negate oddity in sampling and bad data collection but you'd be confident with around 2x (770) of the data.

Well, suppose that 30% of players have created similar statistics of games against this deck. And 70% of other players have different statistics. It's no secret that certain opponents are selected for different decks. So what a similar example does not fit this situation.

02/26/2019 10:40 AMPosted by Lykotic
Again, very very false. Of the last 5 Priests I have faced at r4 3 were Big and 2 were Dragon. Dragon Priest is a very real deck and is in the meta. Is it below Big Priest? Obviously it is as both the data you dismiss (incorrectly) and the my own personal tracker will tell me. TO say though Priest only has one deck in Wild is proving that you either don't play a ton or don't move out of a rank range much.

That's the problem with this whole story with statistics. For six months I have not met a single priest on dragons. 99.9% of the priests that I met were just big priests. 0.1% just fan decks. So what happens? You also do not take into account my statistics? I play at 5-1 rank, if you are interested.
- Big priest loses to combo decks by default.
- There are a few control warlock lists that fare reasonably well against it.
- Aggro decks, has over 55-60% WR against it as long as Barnes wont show up early.
Overall aggro decks are slight dogs though with even shaman pirate warrior and zoo probably being the exceptions.
-Most hunter lists have a favorite match up.
-Most rogue variants feast on big priests as well.

The problem with Big priest is that the winning percentages of the list skyrockets when Barnes is played on curve which will happen over 1/3 of the games if the priest hard mulligans for him....
02/26/2019 11:27 AMPosted by FaboanGrosb
This is a good example showing how many mothers you would need in a survey, assuming no selection bias and your sample size represents mothers in the US for various confidence intervals. For 95%, which I think is the default percentage people look for, your sample size needed is only 385 respondents. You actually prefer it to be larger to negate oddity in sampling and bad data collection but you'd be confident with around 2x (770) of the data.

Well, suppose that 30% of players have created similar statistics of games against this deck. And 70% of other players have different statistics. It's no secret that certain opponents are selected for different decks. So what a similar example does not fit this situation.

Vs uses the OPPONENT DECK DATA and that is one of the reasons it's data has, int he past, matched up closely when Blizzard released their numbers. This is why for meta play data I use Vs over HSR as Vs' data is looking at what people who are not opting into the program are playing. pre-patch (round numbers) Big Priest was 10% of the meta, Reno Priest was 3% and Dragon Priest was 2.5%. Since then we've had the rise of Aggro Kingsbane Rogue which is as close to a Big Priest hard counter as has existed so I doubt Big Priest has gone up in play rate at all.

02/26/2019 11:27 AMPosted by FaboanGrosb
That's the problem with this whole story with statistics. For six months I have not met a single priest on dragons. 99.9% of the priests that I met were just big priests. 0.1% just fan decks. So what happens? You also do not take into account my statistics? I play at 5-1 rank, if you are interested.

For meta data neither of us have anywhere close to meta relevant data amounts especially post Even Shaman and Baku Rogue nerfs which have given some decks more room to breathe in the meta.
02/26/2019 11:36 AMPosted by DrKorn
The problem with Big priest is that the winning percentages of the list skyrockets when Barnes is played on curve which will happen over 1/3 of the games if the priest hard mulligans for him....

Yes, this is the issue w/ Barnes in Big Priest. I don't mind the lists that don't run Barnes (they're roughly -2% WR pre-patch) as the amount that turn 4 matters is removed. It seems ridiculous that so many deck against Big Priest come down to the worry of turn 4 + 5 combos
Vs uses the OPPONENT DECK DATA and that is one of the reasons it's data has, int he past, matched up closely when Blizzard released their numbers. This is why for meta play data I use Vs over HSR as Vs' data is looking at what people who are not opting into the program are playing. pre-patch (round numbers)

What am I talking about? Depending on what these people played on, they picked up opponents. I also rarely meet the control warrior, and in friends' games, which I sometimes watch, they are much more common than mine. Each player has his own statistics - it depends on the class and on the deck.

02/26/2019 12:10 PMPosted by Lykotic
For meta data neither of us have anywhere close to meta relevant data amounts especially post Even Shaman and Baku Rogue nerfs which have given some decks more room to breathe in the meta.

According to my observations, after the nerf of the shamans, their number only increased.
You have to play VERY aggressive AND they have to draw VERY poorly.

So yeah, it's beatable - and also totally bs.
02/26/2019 08:17 AMPosted by Shakou
if their hand is full, your sap doesn't do anything since the minion dies and can be res


It clears any taunts out of the way for minions to hit face. It burns a res if they are holding it. Get out of here with your ‘sap doesn’t do anything!’

Sure, if you sap destroy a 1/1 on turn 4-5, but sap is amazing if used properly vs big priest.
The devs’ lack of communication on this glaring issue makes the problem even worse


It's because there is no actual problem. You on;y perceive a problem based on your own tastes.

Combo exists, and is viable. This is card games. Dig it, or don't and move on.

It will shift though, no worries, and your preferred style will come back around to dominant... for a time...
Very beatable.
I play an aggressive handbuff pally opening witth crystology and handbuffed echoing oozes.

Curving into Loatheb and rebuke while attacking face.
And if that isn't enough, Zihi to deny the inevitable Psychic Scream.
Aside from nut draws, mill rogue will seal it. X2 prep vanish and sap, can ran the deathrattle version with nzoth and deathlords to thin them fast. Time coldlights for when it will burn 1 or 2 cards. Priest does nothing for turn 1-4 with exception of Barnes. A turn 4 barnes is already shown to swing their WR up to >70%, so you will need a sap for the 1/1 or be ready for an uphill battle
I have a Reno Mage deck that is pretty good against Big Priest and Kingsbane Rogue. But it's only good if you're stuck in a pocket meta with those. Everything else is hard to beat.
I beat Big Priest with Mecha'thun Warlock and Mecha'thun Warrior in Wild.

Always emote them :))

Mecha'thun is actually very enjoyable in Wild, because it's full of degenerated decks. You just ignore it and OTK them.
How does cast Shadowstep on your Coldlight Rogue fare v WBP?

While I don't play anything from a metareport, i'd assume WBP can't handle saps and prep vans.

I don't see how Coldlght Rogue can't Shadowstep Coldlight, Shuffle x2, Van or 2, and then go Brann + Spirit + Coldlight or Brann + Dub Cold. If they don't blow up then, I mean the next turn there's another Light or two in hand to finish the fatigue.

Coldlight Rogue losing to non-aggro decks doesn't make sense to me.
All the deck needs is time to create a bigger deck and blow yours up.

So how does WBP beat Coldlight Rogue who bursts with Brann?
02/27/2019 04:02 AMPosted by Thorodan
How does cast Shadowstep on your Coldlight Rogue fare v WBP?

While I don't play anything from a metareport, i'd assume WBP can't handle saps and prep vans.

I don't see how Coldlght Rogue can't Shadowstep Coldlight, Shuffle x2, Van or 2, and then go Brann + Spirit + Coldlight or Brann + Dub Cold. If they don't blow up then, I mean the next turn there's another Light or two in hand to finish the fatigue.

Coldlight Rogue losing to non-aggro decks doesn't make sense to me.
All the deck needs is time to create a bigger deck and blow yours up.

So how does WBP beat Coldlight Rogue who bursts with Brann?


The same Bull!@#$ way it usually wins games. You play Barnes on curve and High Roll. What Rogue has going for it is Prep Vanish or 2x Sap so they can actually counter that. Single Sap deal with anything that isn't a Ysaarj pull. The problem is that only Rogue can counter the High Roll because every other answer that is too slow and/or feeds their resurrect pool. If Rogue doesn't draw those answers before the resurrects pool get filled they die just like everyone else and a 2 card combo is harder to draw than a single card that can nut roll into something that near unbeatable.

Druid has poison seeds but that still kills the initial minion and while it pollutes the res pool it doesn't do all that much because Spellstone and Sevitude never offer more than 1 Treant at a time.

Hex and Polymorph is too slow to beat Barnes pulling Y'saarj. Tinkermaster is just a worse version of Hex and Polymorph because best case is only 25% as it could just randomly Turn the Barnes into a Dinosaur instead of the thing it pulls into a Squirrel and the other 2 outcomes of Barnes into a Squirrel is basically nothing you never want to Resurrect the 3/4 anyway if you can help it and randomly getting a 1/1 instead isn't much worse compared to what you usually get and getting 5/5's with your Resurrect is good enough a lot of the time.

Devolve doesn't do it because the Priest is usually still getting Premium Stats from their random 7-9 drop.

Freeze Trap is easy enough to play around especially if Statue is the pull. The Priest never has to attack until they have a 7 or 8 Drop so that they can replay it.

The other Classes only have kill removal other than Tinkmaster which was discuss above with Polymorph and Hex.

You could get lucky and the Big Priest could have an awkward slow draw with their Resurrects on the bottom of the deck so you could possible get there with Deathstalker or another infinite value engine or some OTK wombo combo.

That's the issue with Big Priest not that its the best most OP deck in the game. Its that its nut roll only has 1 Class with only a few multi card combos that has a good chance to beat it. Nobody want to play a match that is so polarized as Big Priest that gets their Barnes on curve. Like the deck I play the most in Wild my Homebrew N'zoth Mech Hunter because it fulfills a lot of quest requirement. While not the greatest deck it has decent match ups against everything with some draw luck except Big Priest and only because of Barnes.
Maybe they should make barnes cost 6 or 7 mana? I just played against a big priest coining out barnes on turn 3, summoning y’saarjh with it, which summoned ragnaros. None of the decks you guys mentioned will counter this overpowered garbage. I don’t care if “people say” it’s not very prevalent on the ladder. I’M FACING THIS DECK MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF MY GAMES at rank 4-5. Counter to popular belief, big priest is a big problem.

They completely kill interactivity along with combo decks. Why play against an opponent when you can just play solitairedecks like big priests or any combo deck. And the issue is that this is wild, the devs don’t give a crap about wild. Also, because it’s wild, the meta is unlikely to change anytime soon..since big priest has very few bad matchups.

Also, i tried playing it and the only weakness i could find was that i repeatedly didn’t draw minions. And guess what, that is NOT Something you can interact with, this is a problem THE DEVS need to fix.

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