Drop rate theory

General Discussion
So we all know that lootboxes are a scam, but I'm trying to confirm something here. I think that there is some sort of algorithm in place that gives a player a high likelihood of getting a specific duplicate event skin over other skins, but it's random for each player.

So for me I have gotten the Cadillac D.Va NUMEROUS times already, and for my friend it has been the same thing but with the Hanzo skin. Another person I know has had this happen to him but with Symmetra. Last event it was me and the Mcree skin. Anyone else feel something like this is in place? A specific duplicate is at a high chance for each player, but what the duplicate is is randomized per player. RNG my !@#. RNG doesn't mean rigged. You do realize that right Blizzard?
06/09/2017 11:32 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
So we all know that lootboxes are a scam


Stopped reading only 9 words into whatever you said.
Zero event duplicate skins!

5 total event legendary skins to date.
06/09/2017 11:35 AMPosted by crazyRAGE
Zero event duplicate skins!

5 total event legendary skins to date.


You must be lying lol. Or overlooked a duplicate.
06/09/2017 11:34 AMPosted by Erras
06/09/2017 11:32 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
So we all know that lootboxes are a scam


Stopped reading only 9 words into whatever you said.


You're a fanboy so it's to be expected. Just look at all those posts you have. You'll defend Blizzard to the grave even though they would throw you to the wolves in a heartbeat for some moolah.

**Also, "a" isn't a word so you actually only read 8 words before you stopped reading. Gurl bye.
06/09/2017 11:32 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
I think that there is some sort of algorithm in place that gives a player a high likelihood of getting a specific duplicate event skin over other skins, but it's random for each player.


So the human brain is a fantastic pattern finding machine. So good, in fact, that it often finds patterns where there are none. You see this all the time with ridiculous conspiracy theories, people connecting random events together.

Combine this with our biased memory and it becomes a real pain sometimes. You think you discover something, confirmation bias kicks in, bam you're now convinced of a myth. This is why the scientific method is so important, and anecdotal data is essentially considered trash.

OP, I encourage you look at a few facts. And you don't need to believe me on them, go study them yourself.

1. Randomness creates "clusters and voids". Real random selection won't cleanly give you each skin unless you're super lucky, you should expect duplicates. Roll a dice, and see how many rolls you need, and duplicate numbers you get, before you get all 6 numbers.

2. Human's have tons of cognitive biases. You're suffering from confirmation bias. Read about it.
06/09/2017 11:32 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
So we all know that lootboxes are a scam, but I'm trying to confirm something here. I think that there is some sort of algorithm in place that gives a player a high likelihood of getting a specific duplicate event skin over other skins, but it's random for each player.

So for me I have gotten the Cadillac D.Va NUMEROUS times already, and for my friend it has been the same thing but with the Hanzo skin. Another person I know has had this happen to him but with Symmetra. Last event it was me and the Mcree skin. Anyone else feel something like this is in place? A specific duplicate is at a high chance for each player, but what the duplicate is is randomized per player. RNG my !@#. RNG doesn't mean rigged. You do realize that right Blizzard?


Last event "Uprising" all i wanted was the purple Bastion and Orisa skins.

Before the event ended i said F it and just bought them both for 3000 coins each.

The next 3-4 loot boxes i opened had both of those skins in them, coincidence? Maybe....

This event all i want is the Mei, DVA, and Sym skins, and the Sym dance.

I got Beekeeper right away and nothing else, or so i thought!

Uploading video of me opening 5 loot boxes now, will post once its ready.
It's clear that you get far more duplicates than anything else. I have probably less than 25 items on most characters, and I mostly get duplicates. That's like less than one quarter of all items in the game, and I usually get 3 duplicates in every single box.
06/09/2017 11:45 AMPosted by FriendlyFire
06/09/2017 11:32 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
I think that there is some sort of algorithm in place that gives a player a high likelihood of getting a specific duplicate event skin over other skins, but it's random for each player.


So the human brain is a fantastic pattern finding machine. So good, in fact, that it often finds patterns where there are none. You see this all the time with ridiculous conspiracy theories, people connecting random events together.

Combine this with our biased memory and it becomes a real pain sometimes. You think you discover something, confirmation bias kicks in, bam you're now convinced of a myth. This is why the scientific method is so important, and anecdotal data is essentially considered trash.

OP, I encourage you look at a few facts. And you don't need to believe me on them, go study them yourself.

1. Randomness creates "clusters and voids". Real random selection won't cleanly give you each skin unless you're super lucky, you should expect duplicates. Roll a dice, and see how many rolls you need, and duplicate numbers you get, before you get all 6 numbers.

2. Human's have tons of cognitive biases. You're suffering from confirmation bias. Read about it.


I understand what you're saying it makes perfect sense. The only thing bothering me is that it is happening to multiple people I talk to but just with a different hero. It's like the game guarantees certain duplicates for a given player. If it was truly random we wouldn't have this many people upset with drop rates. Something is rigged.
06/09/2017 11:38 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
You're a fanboy so it's to be expected. Just look at all those posts you have. You'll defend Blizzard to the grave even though they would throw you to the wolves in a heartbeat for some moolah.


Its because I know what the word "greedy" means, which none of you guys do. I'm also not a self entitled person who wants everything handed to me. But continue on with your Blizzard bashing, you'll be muted from here on out.

Enjoy.
06/09/2017 11:55 AMPosted by Erras
06/09/2017 11:38 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
You're a fanboy so it's to be expected. Just look at all those posts you have. You'll defend Blizzard to the grave even though they would throw you to the wolves in a heartbeat for some moolah.


Its because I know what the word "greedy" means, which none of you guys do. I'm also not a self entitled person who wants everything handed to me. But continue on with your Blizzard bashing, you'll be muted from here on out.

Enjoy.


I'm not greedy I just want things to be fair. Bye!
It seems to give you most skins for the heroes that you play less.
Blizz controls the drop rates and can manipulate them in their favor to encourage/push loot box sales - this is all you need to know about loot boxes.
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So the human brain is a fantastic pattern finding machine. So good, in fact, that it often finds patterns where there are none. You see this all the time with ridiculous conspiracy theories, people connecting random events together.

Combine this with our biased memory and it becomes a real pain sometimes. You think you discover something, confirmation bias kicks in, bam you're now convinced of a myth. This is why the scientific method is so important, and anecdotal data is essentially considered trash.

OP, I encourage you look at a few facts. And you don't need to believe me on them, go study them yourself.

1. Randomness creates "clusters and voids". Real random selection won't cleanly give you each skin unless you're super lucky, you should expect duplicates. Roll a dice, and see how many rolls you need, and duplicate numbers you get, before you get all 6 numbers.

2. Human's have tons of cognitive biases. You're suffering from confirmation bias. Read about it.


I understand what you're saying it makes perfect sense. The only thing bothering me is that it is happening to multiple people I talk to but just with a different hero. It's like the game guarantees certain duplicates for a given player. If it was truly random we wouldn't have this many people upset with drop rates. Something is rigged.


"I understand what you just said, but I'm still sticking with my confirmation bias".

The example he gave with the dice is the best example of what you're complaining about that people seem 'rigged' to keep getting the same hero.

Let's say you roll a dice 10 times, and 4 of those times you get a 3.
Then I roll the same dice 10 times, and 4 of those times I get a 4.
And he rolls the same dice 10 times, and 4 of those times he gets a 5.

Now imagine this same scenario, but millions of people will do it.

Of course patterns will occur. But the dice isn't rigged. We all have a 1/6 chance of getting the other numbers. But RNG doesn't guarantee that you will. It in no way guarantees the roll I get will be the same as yours or his. it in no way guarantees them to be more random than yours or his.
It's just that as the more a certain outcome appears, the more it starts to seem like a bias, which it isn't. It's pure random chance. For every person complaining "I keep getting the same X skin", there's just as likely to be the guy that gets completely different skins each time, as someone already has in this thread and you completely dismissed them.

It's a lot easier to be mad at a company and say they have shady tactics involved than deal with the fact you just had bad luck with rolling the dice.
I never had this duplicate skin problem and I also don't remember any duplicate event skins.
This event I even got super lucky and I had two event skins in my second box.
06/09/2017 11:55 AMPosted by Erras
06/09/2017 11:38 AMPosted by ChieFofWar
You're a fanboy so it's to be expected. Just look at all those posts you have. You'll defend Blizzard to the grave even though they would throw you to the wolves in a heartbeat for some moolah.


Its because I know what the word "greedy" means, which none of you guys do. I'm also not a self entitled person who wants everything handed to me. But continue on with your Blizzard bashing, you'll be muted from here on out.

Enjoy.


This seems like the kind of person who gets ripped off in every "deal" tbh. The typical Ideal customer.

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