" you are at the SR you belong" fallacy

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performance based gains and losses below diamond not making all play styles equal and causing your teammates to influnce your performance and therefor how much you gain or loose

you should be able to climb with a positive winrate, 51% or higher, but some people cant while others can climb with negative winrates and thats a problem

other than that i do think you can climb with enough games played, though there might be some funky stuff going on in who you get matched with ? who knows
02/19/2018 06:58 PMPosted by jedc22
because statistical anomalies don't happen every day. because someones mother doesn't call them out to dinner. because someones internet doesn't cut out. because there is never a storm that causes a power surge. you literally CANNOT just say "statistics bro" as a valid answer. you are assuming everything and know nothing about any specific situation. there is no constant for your statistics to be based off.


Literally why i pointed out the more you do the more accurate it gets... Jesus did you even read what i said?
02/19/2018 07:07 PMPosted by Tapsum!@#$
Ego1in1Finem

As frustrating as it is.... Is it possible to conceive that your "season high" was a luck streak, and you are much higher than you should be? personally on multiple accounts, this has not occurred until i have hit that rating... Lets look deeper.

Your overall skill rank is the 39th percentile... your top ranked hero is Junkrat at the 71st percentile, which puts you at 2708 with Junkrat solely going off percentile...

C0derwatch has your top hero tied with Junkrat and Orisa, with an estimated SR of 2457. Overall C0derwatch has your SR at 2359.....

Take from that what you will.


Maybe i was not clear in my post. I have 3 accounts.

Also i am not saying i am to low or to high. I am not saying i think i belong in diamond.

I am saying that i do not believe in coincidence if the same patern repeats itself over and over again.
I'm a pretty casual player, I don't put many hours in each season so I've always been high silver to mid goldish. I decided I wanted to get to platinum this season since I had a new gaming mouse and mouse pad and that's exactly what I did. It didn't take too much time (not exactly a huge goal I made for myself lol) but I certainly did it and am proud that I did. Yes, I had to look at my mistakes. Yes, my aim had to improve even if it was ever so slightly. I realize if I'm going to climb higher I'm probably going to have to learn more characters and improve a lot more.

The people are who kicking and screaming because they aren't at the rank they want come off as extremely childish. You can blame the system and say it's broken all you want. But when you do this you are kinda insuitating everyone who actually climbed are mostly lucky and don't deserve their rank. It's really off-putting. And if you keep letting that mindset whirl around in your head you most likely won't climb and you will be forever tilted.
Dude I can one-trick Doomfist out of bronze without any coordination.

If your argument is that you don't belong in Bronze then what will happen if we gift you lets say Diamond at best? You'll be in a world of hurt and the team that you're paired with will suffer too. Why is everything these days "give me give me give me" instead of trying to work for it and learn?

How the hell do I climb from 2100(gold) - 3100(diamond) on my first season in OW??? Then the following season I made Masters. I'm stuck in Masters cause that's where I belong. ALL SOLO QUEUE!
02/19/2018 07:20 PMPosted by Ego1in1Finem
Maybe i was not clear in my post. I have 3 accounts.

Also i am not saying i am to low or to high. I am not saying i think i belong in diamond.

I am saying that i do not believe in coincidence if the same patern repeats itself over and over again.


Maybe i wasn't clear either...

The # of accounts you have doesn't matter if you are above your skill cap and a correction is in order, which is what was happening there. You got a lucky streak and placed above where you should. The MMR correction was bound to happen.

You're right though, it's not a coincidence, eventually luck runs out and you drop back to where you should actually be placed. It's especially more evident with personal MMR below Diamond.

Now are all of the accounts at a completely different rank? Show me and i'll attempt to read into why this might be happening.

But whilst your stats accurately reflect the rank you currently sit at (within 9 SR), there is no "coincidence", it is the MMR system doing it's job.
Im playing this game about a month now, made my placement matches when hit 25, just out of curiosity, and I was placed 2 wins from silver (1450 SR). Continued to play in comp and hit 1200ish SR.

Yes, low ranks are bad at the game, quiters, trolls and stuff. On my placement matches I lost 6 games of 10 because of leavers. So I stoped with comp and focused on playing other heroes and improving game sense ( Im old dude who plays since the first DOOM, FPS is my confort zone).

When the CTF comp was out, I give it a try to see if I got bettter, I guess I did, because I was placed on gold (I know is a different from regular comp, but u still need a basic game sense in other to git gud).

Im telling u this because at some moment I started blaming others for my losses, and lets be honest here, of course you will lose some matches because of other people, but you keep trying. After I was placed in gold in CTF, I did come back to regular comp to give another try, and could climb all the way to silver, proving that I have indeed some sort of improvement.

Im done for this season because I've learned the hard way that the last week is the worst time to play comp, and spect that in S09 after the placement matches be placed where I belong.
02/19/2018 07:15 PMPosted by Tapsum!@#$
02/19/2018 06:58 PMPosted by jedc22
because statistical anomalies don't happen every day. because someones mother doesn't call them out to dinner. because someones internet doesn't cut out. because there is never a storm that causes a power surge. you literally CANNOT just say "statistics bro" as a valid answer. you are assuming everything and know nothing about any specific situation. there is no constant for your statistics to be based off.


Literally why i pointed out the more you do the more accurate it gets... Jesus did you even read what i said?

because it doesn't. apparently you didn't read what I said. It's like a movie ffs."in a world of variables.... one man, never leaves a game..... unless all of those variables effect him or any of the 11 other players in the match. cameos include thrower guy and troll guy, starring smurf dude and everyones favorite, statistics guy! in theaters near you this summer"

seriously tap, you're talking millions and millions of possible variations and think it can be settled by a hundred games. could be guy a gets a lot of leavers, guy b gets few. it's not balanced on a person to person or game to game basis. not everyone is going to have some magic number that is the set leaver rate.
02/19/2018 07:48 PMPosted by jedc22
because it doesn't. apparently you didn't read what I said. It's like a movie ffs."in a world of variables.... one man, never leaves a game..... unless all of those variables effect him or any of the 11 other players in the match. cameos include thrower guy and troll guy, starring smurf dude and everyones favorite, statistics guy! in theaters near you this summer"

seriously tap, you're talking millions and millions of possible variations and think it can be settled by a hundred games. could be guy a gets a lot of leavers, guy b gets few. it's not balanced on a person to person or game to game basis. not everyone is going to have some magic number that is the set leaver rate.


You obviously have no idea how/what Actuarial studies is. You couldn't be more wrong if you tried.
02/18/2018 10:14 AMPosted by Applesoup
02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
I read it often in this forum, whenever some " low rank" like me posts about how the sr system is screwing us over. "You are at the SR you belong", "Stop blaming others" ,"There's no such thing as bad luck", "Focus on yourself","If you're there you're doing something wrong".
So, ask yourself, what are you doing that is keeping you at the "SR that you belong."

You do realize that there are "high rank" players right? They don't have the same problems that you have. That's why you hear these responses.

Figure out what they are doing right, what you are doing wrong, and you will climb too!


High ranks
- don't get placed (in many cases) in cess pool of gold/silver and co. where most players OF VERY DIFFERENT SKILLS place.
- if they do get placed low, they usually can basically solo enemy team in those ranks. Which leads to question: is my rank decided by my ability to solo entire enemy team? What is the point of SR and MM when it is the case?

Also, let's take leavers/trolls and co. into account: chances of getting those in your matches at higher ranks are relative low compared to say gold or silver (let's not even mention bronze) simply because due to their behavior those players end up in lower ranks and sadly due to rather weak Blizz politics are still allowed to play and ruin games for other player.
I have played this game since launch (with some big breaks) and in this 2 years nothing changed regarding frequency with which i see leavers/trolls etc. in matches.

You would say: hey, enemy team also gets those players so it evens out. Yeah it does, in about 100000 games. Do you really think a normal human being would be able to play through so many frustrating matches to finally get even case?

Then we have issue how loss and wins are treated. A person leaves my match -> we lose -> i loss say 40 SR. I win a match, i gain 20. At this point 1 leaver already ruined game for 5 players and and now they are forced to win 2+ games to make up for 1 loss. This is absurd but this is reality.

The SR of entire team is literary determined by whether i get trolls/throwers in my match. This is not Skill rating but luck rating, if anything.
That is why many players feel like they are playing a roulette and not actual competitive.
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
02/19/2018 02:43 PMPosted by omnic
...

You're going to need to expand on that.

...

This could be a fair point however I'm still skeptical of if it's meaningful enough. However it's not applicable for all skill ranges since Blizzard made it so at diamond and above you always gain or lose in 25 sr blocks (unless you quit during a game and lose 50 sr).

But still. You're going to need to provide a bit more than "people playing in a 6 man are playing a harder game". Because I don't think they're experiencing a harder game mode unless you're 6 man stacking in the top 500 and end up playing against literal pro teams that are skirmishing.

When you 6-stack, you play against other 6-stacks. Overwatch as a game improves, and those involved must too. This is why 6-stacks don’t play against solo queuers, because they are better. They are given better opponents to compensate. You literally just have to play better in a 6-stack because your opponents are also in a 6-stack. You can’t just go in 1v6 on Genji and hope to carry like in solo queue, you actually have to understand the game and play it properly. As for the SR gains, I will remind you that all Blizzard did is remove PBSR. You still gain less if you were of higher SR than the enemy. Additionally, you just straight up gain less SR in 6-stacks. For me, this means about 21-23 SR instead of 24-26, but this can differ depending on the people you are grouped with and their SR.


FIrst off The system just tries to place you against other 6 stacks. You still get non 6-stacks though. Just last night I was in a game of 4 solo queuers + a duo vs a 6stack. Secondly the SR gain thing could be true or not idk. I highly doubt it's anything close to confirmed though however it's certainly not true at diamond and above.
Oh, I just hit another forced loss streak. Wow, what a game of the year!
02/20/2018 06:17 AMPosted by Reitanna
02/18/2018 10:14 AMPosted by Applesoup
...So, ask yourself, what are you doing that is keeping you at the "SR that you belong."

You do realize that there are "high rank" players right? They don't have the same problems that you have. That's why you hear these responses.

Figure out what they are doing right, what you are doing wrong, and you will climb too!


High ranks
- don't get placed (in many cases) in cess pool of gold/silver and co. where most players OF VERY DIFFERENT SKILLS place.
- if they do get placed low, they usually can basically solo enemy team in those ranks. Which leads to question: is my rank decided by my ability to solo entire enemy team? What is the point of SR and MM when it is the case?

Also, let's take leavers/trolls and co. into account: chances of getting those in your matches at higher ranks are relative low compared to say gold or silver (let's not even mention bronze) simply because due to their behavior those players end up in lower ranks and sadly due to rather weak Blizz politics are still allowed to play and ruin games for other player.
I have played this game since launch (with some big breaks) and in this 2 years nothing changed regarding frequency with which i see leavers/trolls etc. in matches.

You would say: hey, enemy team also gets those players so it evens out. Yeah it does, in about 100000 games. Do you really think a normal human being would be able to play through so many frustrating matches to finally get even case?

Then we have issue how loss and wins are treated. A person leaves my match -> we lose -> i loss say 40 SR. I win a match, i gain 20. At this point 1 leaver already ruined game for 5 players and and now they are forced to win 2+ games to make up for 1 loss. This is absurd but this is reality.

The SR of entire team is literary determined by whether i get trolls/throwers in my match. This is not Skill rating but luck rating, if anything.
That is why many players feel like they are playing a roulette and not actual competitive.

You’re wasting your time. The elite here will never see it. They’ll boast about their PHDS with no proof (I’ve got a Lambo in my garage, btw), treat you like you’re an idiot, all to assuage their egos and prove that they earned their rating fairly. Your posts says what I could not articulate well in words. Thank you.
Anyone got that Seagull clip for this post?
By all logic, players better than average at their rank MUST climb if they play enough games.

How could a system deliberately keep players down in rank if they are better than their team mates. Logic dictates they would surely win over half their games and climb.

It is not credible to suggest the enemy team get better players than your team overall, as it simply puts two teams who are on average the same SR together. For this not to be true Blizzard would have to have a small group of people that it targets to keep down in rank, which is unbelievable.

If you are not winning more than half your games at a rating, you must simply not be better than the average player at your rank. i.e. when you get a rating higher than you deserve you lose more, and when lower than you deserve you win more.

Sadly a lot of people are unable to objectively appraise their skill and believe they are better than they are.
02/19/2018 07:24 PMPosted by JamieNoonZ
Dude I can one-trick Doomfist out of bronze without any coordination.

If your argument is that you don't belong in Bronze then what will happen if we gift you lets say Diamond at best? You'll be in a world of hurt and the team that you're paired with will suffer too. Why is everything these days "give me give me give me" instead of trying to work for it and learn?

How the hell do I climb from 2100(gold) - 3100(diamond) on my first season in OW??? Then the following season I made Masters. I'm stuck in Masters cause that's where I belong. ALL SOLO QUEUE!


Me? I enver said that lol. My point is that people should stop saying you belong where you are because they don't know the circumstances, and you, are doing the exact thing I said not to.
There really isn't an excuse for being stuck in low bronze. It is not possible to be a significantly better player stuck in a rank that low. Maybe you are a 1000 SR player, but there isn't a huge difference between 1000 and 700.

I see that you are mainly playing by filling, which is your first mistake. Why are you playing heroes like Reinhardt who require a team to actually back you up? You really expect that much in low bronze? The easiest way to climb is to 1 trick a DPS. Sure it sounds stupid/toxic, but the system favors 1 tricking until diamond. Filling is not a viable strategy until higher ranks. You need to focus on 1-2 core heroes to get good at, and stop trying to fill tank / support all the time, because all that does is flip a coin on whether you will win the game or not. Your win rates on Reinhardt and Moira are hardly 50%. By always being stuck on tank and healer, you are pretty much flipping a coin on whether or not your team knows how to group up and focus targets.

You need to learn a "carry" hero. Heroes like Soldier, Tracer, Genji, Pharah, or McCree. They work in pretty much every situation and can have enormous outplay potential. If you want to play a tank, play D.va, Roadhog, or Zarya. These tanks can carry just as much as a DPS hero can, and are more focused on dealing damage than tanking.

I began the game as a gold player and tried to fill too. It never worked out. It was win / loss / win / loss. I pretty much 1 tricked Genji up until high diamond or low master. Been filling and playing flex support since, and win most of my games in masters as support as opposed to the seemingly forced 50% win rate that I had in gold.
This is so true.

When I play in a two or three man group I go on massive win streaks and when I play in Solo Que I go on massive loss streaks. If it was due to my own skill then this would not be the case.

I can group up with lower ranked players who are lower SR than me and go on a win streak cause I know they are not going to throw or leave. I can also group up with Diamond players who are 1000 SR higher than me and still go on a massive win streak playing against enemy teams who are at least 700 SR higher than me.

Why? Because they will not all three pick DPS, no healer, no tanks, or pick Hanzo - Widow - Genji when those heroes are being hard countered or if they can't aim and refuse to let someones else DPS since they are not doing enough damage or getting picks.

Yet, in Solo Que most of the matches I lost was out of my hands. I absolutely hard carried with over 60% kill participation and Four Golds including highest objective time and we still lost badly because of these players who are not getting elims and being countered super hard but wont switch or let someone else DPS.

They also refuse to group up and run in alone 1 vs 6 or 2 vs 6 and are constantly getting killed leaving the rest of the team helpless to win making it nearly impossible to win. You will not see this as much in higher ranks. Players get yelled at and reported if they do not group up but in lower ranks they do it a lot and get away with it and cause our whole team to suffer.
Proof in point.

My roomate/friend introduced me to Overwatch. He has been in High Diamond to Low Masters in every Season. The lowest he has ever been was Mid Diamond but then climbed back up to Masters. He mains Mcree and absolutely carries in Diamond and Masters matches. He can also flex to support or tanks if needed.

I told him how I can't seem to win anything no matter how hard I carry in Gold. How I can get over 60% Kill Participation, Four Golds with highest damage and elims, and still lose over and over again in Solo Que.

He told me I am at the SR I belong and if I get good then I will climb. It made me feel so angry.

So to prove it was not me I asked him to try and win a match using my account in Solo Que. Not to boost me but just to see if he can win more than lose in low to mid Gold. I told him to play only three to four matches regardless if he wins or loses.

Guess what happened?

He lost three matches in a row and then quit. He said he is starting to feel salty. He said the healers where not healing him. The tanks were running in by themselves and feeding enemy ULT's which was why the enemy was popping off ult after ult in each team fight. He also said nobody was grouping up and just running in alone and getting killed. At the end of each match that he lost he had four golds, 60% or higher kill participation and POTG but still lost.

He gave up and told me to try to get to Diamond so we can play together. He told me I don't belong in low Gold and now he understands.
Can we rename this post to "Crying Corner"? It's extremely fitting. Like a cozy place to all the stubborn, truth-denying and delusional players to group up and cry about how the game is always helping the other team, even though the only thing that every team you're in has in common is, well, you.

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