" you are at the SR you belong" fallacy

Competitive Discussion
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02/19/2018 10:54 AMPosted by Heihachi
02/19/2018 08:48 AMPosted by Applesoup
...The lottery? lol

A quick math lesson...You have 5 random players. The enemy team has 6. The odds of the opposing team having a thrower/leaver/whatever is actually greater than your odds. This game is actually stacked in YOUR favor (assuming you aren't the one causing leavers/toxicity/etc).

Here's an example. Let's say that there is 1 thrower in every game. In 6 out of 11 games, it is likely that the thrower will be on the enemy team. Now, of course every 11 games that won't happen, and I don't know how much you know about probability (I'm assuming none, since you compared overwatch to winning the lottery), but, the more games you play, the more accurate that 6/11 statistic will be. For EVERYONE. Not just people with "luck." Flip a coin 10 times, you may not get 5 heads 5 tails. Flip it 1000 times, you'll be a lot closer to 500 heads 500 tails.


God, I love this argument.
You've just written this post giving me great advice. Now say for example, someone else comes to you complaining of the same thing I do. You'll give them the same advice right?
Say that this hypothetical person and I end up on opposing teams.
Suddenly your argument is moot man. I guarantee you in every game i'm in, there is AT LEAST one person on the enemy team who would also never leave.

I'm not the only person in the world.
???

I fail to see what you're trying to say. What if all 12 players in the game came to me complaining about the same thing you did? Then there's no such thing as leavers or throwers! That's what your logic amounts to.

It seems you're really struggling to understand what I said, and I don't know how to explain it any clearer. I'm sorry.
02/19/2018 10:58 AMPosted by aflyguy
02/19/2018 10:54 AMPosted by Heihachi
...

God, I love this argument.
You've just written this post giving me great advice. Now say for example, someone else comes to you complaining of the same thing I do. You'll give them the same advice right?
Say that this hypothetical person and I end up on opposing teams.
Suddenly your argument is moot man. I guarantee you in every game i'm in, there is AT LEAST one person on the enemy team who would also never leave.

I'm not the only person in the world.


. You are not grasping this principal of probability. His argument (it's not an argument it's fact) is not moot just because you don't understand it.


I'm inclined to agree with you here. I'm not sure what the flaw in my argument is though, if you gave this advice to two different people and they ended up on opposing teams in the same game, aren't their odds the same, given that neither of those players would leave their games?
02/19/2018 10:54 AMPosted by Heihachi
God, I love this argument.
You've just written this post giving me great advice. Now say for example, someone else comes to you complaining of the same thing I do. You'll give them the same advice right?
Say that this hypothetical person and I end up on opposing teams.
Suddenly your argument is moot man. I guarantee you in every game i'm in, there is AT LEAST one person on the enemy team who would also never leave.

I'm not the only person in the world.


sometimes your posts come across as a little bit trolling but ive always just dismissed that and figured you were just passionate about what you believe even if flawed. until now.

you cant possibly actually not be able to figure this out right? this has to be straight up trolling the forums.
02/19/2018 11:02 AMPosted by Applesoup
02/19/2018 10:54 AMPosted by Heihachi
...

God, I love this argument.
You've just written this post giving me great advice. Now say for example, someone else comes to you complaining of the same thing I do. You'll give them the same advice right?
Say that this hypothetical person and I end up on opposing teams.
Suddenly your argument is moot man. I guarantee you in every game i'm in, there is AT LEAST one person on the enemy team who would also never leave.

I'm not the only person in the world.
???

I fail to see what you're trying to say. What if all 12 players in the game came to me complaining about the same thing you did? Then there's no such thing as leavers or throwers! That's what your logic amounts to.

It seems you're really struggling to understand what I said, and I don't know how to explain it any clearer. I'm sorry.

It's cool man, we can always agree to disagree.
02/19/2018 11:03 AMPosted by Heihachi
I'm inclined to agree with you here. I'm not sure what the flaw in my argument is though, if you gave this advice to two different people and they ended up on opposing teams in the same game, aren't their odds the same, given that neither of those players would leave their games?


Yes, that is one scenario that could happen, where two players on opposing sides are the only ones who are trying and no one else is. However, it is much more likely that one team has more people who are trying than the other. Given that you are always on your own team, that leaves only 5 others who could possibly not try. The other team though has 6 players who could possibly not try. So it is not about exact scenarios, its about the probability of particular scenarios happening over the course of dozens or hundreds of games.
02/19/2018 11:03 AMPosted by Mizzerella
02/19/2018 10:54 AMPosted by Heihachi
God, I love this argument.
You've just written this post giving me great advice. Now say for example, someone else comes to you complaining of the same thing I do. You'll give them the same advice right?
Say that this hypothetical person and I end up on opposing teams.
Suddenly your argument is moot man. I guarantee you in every game i'm in, there is AT LEAST one person on the enemy team who would also never leave.

I'm not the only person in the world.


sometimes your posts come across as a little bit trolling but ive always just dismissed that and figured you were just passionate about what you believe even if flawed. until now.

you cant possibly actually not be able to figure this out right? this has to be straight up trolling the forums.

Not trolling. Dead serious.
You can keep your condescension though.
02/19/2018 11:05 AMPosted by pzero24
02/19/2018 11:03 AMPosted by Heihachi
I'm inclined to agree with you here. I'm not sure what the flaw in my argument is though, if you gave this advice to two different people and they ended up on opposing teams in the same game, aren't their odds the same, given that neither of those players would leave their games?


Yes, that is one scenario that could happen, where two players on opposing sides are the only ones who are trying and no one else is. However, it is much more likely that one team has more people who are trying than the other. Given that you are always on your own team, that leaves only 5 others who could possibly not try. The other team though has 6 players who could possibly not try. So it is not about exact scenarios, its about the probability of particular scenarios happening over the course of dozens or hundreds of games.

Yes! I see. Thank you for the clarification.
I still stand by my stance regarding trolling, leaving, throwing, and smurfs, but what you've written here makes sense.
First season I was 42 rank. Each season I reached a new season high. But this season seems unbearable. I have never dropped and climb 200-300 sr. So often, it's very tiring. I'll go one day to 3400s few days later 3100s. Then back to 3400s and like clockwork back down. I would love a SR reset.
This is a very odd thread.
02/19/2018 11:00 AMPosted by Heihachi
02/19/2018 08:27 AMPosted by aflyguy
...

Actually, luck is evenly distributed in this scenario. One could write up a mathematical proof on why luck is distributed evenly in matchmaking. In fact, The assumption that luck is distributed evenly is one of the central tenets of elo theory, especially in team based games. You can disagree if you want, but your disagreement would be wrong. The lotto is an entirely differet beast probability wise For obvious reasons, yet people often make that comparison.


Ah, now THIS post is interesting. Care to elaborate on this? How does someone compute that human behavior is evenly distributed after so many games? I'm not being snarky, just curious. Is there really an algorithm that can predict the guy who had a bad day and played comp, the guy who drank or smoked too much and played comp, the guy who tilted hard before the match even started and played comp. etc.

Genuinely curious.


The idea is that all those variables occur at an even rate on your team and against your team such that the net effect of all of them on your personal SR/MMR(throwers trolls leavers people having a bad day people having a good day) is marginal if not nonexistent. And if you play enough games it becomes less of an "idea" and moreso just solid fact. And what you are left with is 1 variable that isn't counterbalanced and cancelled out by ewual occurrence and frequency on the enemy team, and that is your own personal performance
You don't have to carry to climb, you just have to be better than the enemy hero playing your role, and comp enough to even out the leaver/thrower bad luck.
I soloed queue to my current rank, on 4 different accounts. So I don't think the system is to blame here.
02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
Following these sayings, I'm the only one responsible for my losses. I cannot blame anyone , because throwers/leavers/ smurfs are not why I lose.


No. But those are variables that over many games tend to equalize out. It's possible but not probable that you are getting more griefers/throwers/trolls/leavers than the rest of the community. This means that while they have a negative effect on your team they have slightly more of an effect on the enemy team. Why? Because your team only has 5 slots of possible leaver/griefers/trolls (because you're the 6th slot) while the end team has 6.

So can you blame individual loses on teammates? Sure. Without a doubt you'll lose games because of 1 person on your team. You'll also without a doubt also win games just because of 1 person on the enemy team.

02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
How am I at the SR i belong to, when I climb 1k when I'm in a good team and drop down 1k when I solo queue. What's that?


You're artificially skewing the results by ensuring you "get a good team". Your real SR isn't the SR that you can only reach by having "a good" team because the vast majority of the community that your playing against doesn't have "a good team" that they're queuing with.

Consider this: Which are these two players is better at the game? Or are they equally skilled?

Player A has an SR of 4100 with a 100 wins and 50 loses this season. He's a tank flex player that only solo queues. Because he solo queues he regularly gets griefers/trollers/leavers in maybe 10% of his games.

Player B has an SR of 4100 with a 100 wins and 50 loses this season. He's a tank flex player that only queues as a 6 stack with other GM players. Nobody in this stack griefs/throws/leaves during comp games.

The answer is player A because in spite being the same SR as player B player A is essentially playing with a leaver/troller/griefer handicap.

Now you could say "Well this means that player A is actually underranked" However this isn't true because this handicap applies to the vast majority of people. And when 99% of people endure a handicap it's the standard you are judged by and just by not having that handicap you're at an advantage. Because of this player B is just over ranked.

02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
Are you going to tell me I belong where I am, when i carry so hard my mouse clicks don't work properly anymore. When i have all my hours on reinhardt and freaking moira when i'm a reaper main?


The key to climbing isn't hard carrying unless you're trying to climb drastically fast because you're far better than your current rank (like a top 500 player playing in diamond skill difference). A more realistic way to think about climbing is "edging out ahead". aka slowly coming out ahead by giving your team slightly more edges than the average person does for their team. Sure you'll still lose games but climbing isn't about winning every game. It's about winning slightly more than you're losing and playing a lot.
wow. THis went waaaaay out of control
02/19/2018 12:51 PMPosted by Ryūsei
wow. THis went waaaaay out of control

people are willing to argue for days about how they aren't at fault for their own underperformance.
if it means feeling like they can blame their team and not themselves, of course they'll argue for 8 pages (probably more) about it.
02/19/2018 12:54 PMPosted by treyzs
02/19/2018 12:51 PMPosted by Ryūsei
wow. THis went waaaaay out of control

people are willing to argue for days about how they aren't at fault for their own underperformance.
if it means feeling like they can blame their team and not themselves, of course they'll argue for 8 pages (probably more) about it.


Experience is the greatest teacher, this rings true for just about everything. In my personal experience playing Overwatch, emphasis on PERSONAL, there have been plenty of games where I could not have possibly done much more on whatever role I was playing. There are absolutely appropriate times where you can come to the conclusion that for WHATEVER REASON it is in that moment, your team was at fault more so than you. Just like how there are many times where I made a mistake and was able to come to the conclusion, "Damn, I just unintentionally threw the game". It's not ALWAYS the teams fault. Sometimes I carry, sometimes I get carried, sometimes I'm the dead weight, sometimes my team is the dead weight. It happens.

TLDR: To say that it's NEVER the fault of the team you're on is just plain wrong. There's too many things that come into play regarding the team you're on to dismiss that fact. However, to say it's 100% always the teams fault is also wrong to the same degree. Both sides of the argument are right and wrong because there's so many variables.
02/19/2018 01:06 PMPosted by HughMungus
TLDR: To say that it's NEVER the fault of the team you're on is just plain wrong. There's too many things that come into play regarding the team you're on to dismiss that fact. However, to say it's 100% always the teams fault is also wrong to the same degree. Both sides of the argument are right and wrong because there's so many variables.


Sure it might be the teams fault for a loss here or there... But the law of averages means it removes that reason for being the reason you cannot climb, so yes in that term it is never the fault of the team.

The only variable you can control is how you play, everything else is out of your hands. If you ensure that you are playing to the best of your ability, critique your own play (look at you stats and judge accordingly), you will climb. No yes or no about it, you will climb. All you have to do is look at your stats and work on the worse one for your main hero. Keep doing that until bobs your uncle you are in the top 10% or even higher of players. It's actually surprisingly easy to do when you actually start to critique yourself and make the decision to work at your own stats, and stop blaming others for your own downfalls.

The best thing you can do is judge yourself more harshly, hell i've blamed myself for many losses throughout the time ive played (lol 1 day... =p)... Realistically it is a team effort, but the harsher you judge yourself and critique yourself, you better you will play.

Remember if you are the one that isn't throwing, the team has a statistical higher chance of having a thrower. 42%/58% for your team.
you do realize odds are just that, right? odds. there is no guarantee, there is no certain percentage where it starts balancing out. they also don't just encompass you, your team or the enemy team.
02/19/2018 01:30 PMPosted by jedc22
you do realize odds are just that, right? odds. there is no guarantee, there is no certain percentage where it starts balancing out. they also don't just encompass you, your team or the enemy team.


You do realise that the more games you play, the closer you get to the statistical anomaly? Literally how the law of averages works.

Play 10 games? Yeah might get skewed a bit... 50 games? 100 games? 200 games?

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