" you are at the SR you belong" fallacy

Competitive Discussion
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02/19/2018 11:53 AMPosted by aflyguy
02/19/2018 11:00 AMPosted by Heihachi
...

Ah, now THIS post is interesting. Care to elaborate on this? How does someone compute that human behavior is evenly distributed after so many games? I'm not being snarky, just curious. Is there really an algorithm that can predict the guy who had a bad day and played comp, the guy who drank or smoked too much and played comp, the guy who tilted hard before the match even started and played comp. etc.

Genuinely curious.


The idea is that all those variables occur at an even rate on your team and against your team such that the net effect of all of them on your personal SR/MMR(throwers trolls leavers people having a bad day people having a good day) is marginal if not nonexistent. And if you play enough games it becomes less of an "idea" and moreso just solid fact. And what you are left with is 1 variable that isn't counterbalanced and cancelled out by ewual occurrence and frequency on the enemy team, and that is your own personal performance


There is a check an balance for variances of human performance built into the system. It was once mentioned that the system has a confidence factor which I believe was implemented to keep people from moving ranks too quickly when they are just having bad days. The more games you play the more the system understands your skill range and attempts to keep you there.

As I've climbed from Bronze I noticed I had always had been rubber banding up and down ranges of SR. However when I look back the average of those ranges had gradually increased as I improved.

I had bad games that would send me back but I always climbed again. It was frustrating but when I realized what was going on I felt more at ease. This is where I figured out that unless I convince the system that I'm consistantly performing well above my rank I will not see myself climb. If I also don't take the time to improve I will likely only see myself derank consistantly.

This I believe is why higher skilled players can rank up so quickly but those of us who are gradually improving bounce up and down the ladder. When we have bad days we drop. If we dropped too low because of a series of bad games once we show the system we are consistantly performing above that rank it moves us back up.

It seems strange but I believe it's to keep Jimmy the Plat player from entering Masters because he had 10 hours of sleep and 6 cups of coffee and is now having the best games of his life. Then the next day he has 4 hours of sleep and no coffee and ends up tanking all his diamond games and then falls into Silver. On the other hand Randy the GM player who tanked himself into Bronze plays extremely well so consistently that he gets put on the express back to GM. (Before they dropped the performance metrics above diamond of corse)

So as I said before. The trick is to play well and keep playing well to climb. Trolls and leavers suck and they do delay you but they don't hold you back because of that was the case I would have never climbed out of Bronze myself. This is why you are best to pick 3 to 4 characters you want to play and practice just those characters and become insanely good with them.
02/19/2018 12:40 PMPosted by omnic
02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
Following these sayings, I'm the only one responsible for my losses. I cannot blame anyone , because throwers/leavers/ smurfs are not why I lose.


No. But those are variables that over many games tend to equalize out. It's possible but not probable that you are getting more griefers/throwers/trolls/leavers than the rest of the community. This means that while they have a negative effect on your team they have slightly more of an effect on the enemy team. Why? Because your team only has 5 slots of possible leaver/griefers/trolls (because you're the 6th slot) while the end team has 6.

So can you blame individual loses on teammates? Sure. Without a doubt you'll lose games because of 1 person on your team. You'll also without a doubt also win games just because of 1 person on the enemy team.

02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
How am I at the SR i belong to, when I climb 1k when I'm in a good team and drop down 1k when I solo queue. What's that?


You're artificially skewing the results by ensuring you "get a good team". Your real SR isn't the SR that you can only reach by having "a good" team because the vast majority of the community that your playing against doesn't have "a good team" that they're queuing with.

Consider this: Which are these two players is better at the game? Or are they equally skilled?

Player A has an SR of 4100 with a 100 wins and 50 loses this season. He's a tank flex player that only solo queues. Because he solo queues he regularly gets griefers/trollers/leavers in maybe 10% of his games.

Player B has an SR of 4100 with a 100 wins and 50 loses this season. He's a tank flex player that only queues as a 6 stack with other GM players. Nobody in this stack griefs/throws/leaves during comp games.

The answer is player A because in spite being the same SR as player B player A is essentially playing with a leaver/troller/griefer handicap.

Now you could say "Well this means that player A is actually underranked" However this isn't true because this handicap applies to the vast majority of people. And when 99% of people endure a handicap it's the standard you are judged by and just by not having that handicap you're at an advantage. Because of this player B is just over ranked.

02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
Are you going to tell me I belong where I am, when i carry so hard my mouse clicks don't work properly anymore. When i have all my hours on reinhardt and freaking moira when i'm a reaper main?


The key to climbing isn't hard carrying unless you're trying to climb drastically fast because you're far better than your current rank (like a top 500 player playing in diamond skill difference). A more realistic way to think about climbing is "edging out ahead". aka slowly coming out ahead by giving your team slightly more edges than the average person does for their team. Sure you'll still lose games but climbing isn't about winning every game. It's about winning slightly more than you're losing and playing a lot.

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of 6 stack players. They are 100% without a doubt better than solo queue players. They play a different game than solo queue players, a much harder game and a much more skillful game. A 3300 6-stack game is significantly better than a solo queue one. Thus, the players in the game must be better to adequately preform. In addition, 6 stacks straight up get less SR. This is a well documented fact. If you want to rank up, you play solo queue.
02/19/2018 01:19 PMPosted by Tapsum!@#$
02/19/2018 01:06 PMPosted by HughMungus
TLDR: To say that it's NEVER the fault of the team you're on is just plain wrong. There's too many things that come into play regarding the team you're on to dismiss that fact. However, to say it's 100% always the teams fault is also wrong to the same degree. Both sides of the argument are right and wrong because there's so many variables.


Sure it might be the teams fault for a loss here or there... But the law of averages means it removes that reason for being the reason you cannot climb, so yes in that term it is never the fault of the team.

The only variable you can control is how you play, everything else is out of your hands. If you ensure that you are playing to the best of your ability, critique your own play (look at you stats and judge accordingly), you will climb. No yes or no about it, you will climb. All you have to do is look at your stats and work on the worse one for your main hero. Keep doing that until bobs your uncle you are in the top 10% or even higher of players. It's actually surprisingly easy to do when you actually start to critique yourself and make the decision to work at your own stats, and stop blaming others for your own downfalls.

The best thing you can do is judge yourself more harshly, hell i've blamed myself for many losses throughout the time ive played (lol 1 day... =p)... Realistically it is a team effort, but the harsher you judge yourself and critique yourself, you better you will play.

Remember if you are the one that isn't throwing, the team has a statistical higher chance of having a thrower. 42%/58% for your team.


I agree with you. Critiquing yourself without putting yourself down is excellent for improvement.
02/19/2018 01:37 PMPosted by SquidKD
They play a different game than solo queue players, a much harder game and a much more skillful game. A 3300 6-stack game is significantly better than a solo queue one.


You're going to need to expand on that.

02/19/2018 01:37 PMPosted by SquidKD
In addition, 6 stacks straight up get less SR. This is a well documented fact. If you want to rank up, you play solo queue.


This could be a fair point however I'm still skeptical of if it's meaningful enough. However it's not applicable for all skill ranges since Blizzard made it so at diamond and above you always gain or lose in 25 sr blocks (unless you quit during a game and lose 50 sr).

But still. You're going to need to provide a bit more than "people playing in a 6 man are playing a harder game". Because I don't think they're experiencing a harder game mode unless you're 6 man stacking in the top 500 and end up playing against literal pro teams that are skirmishing.
The only reason 6 stacks are harder is because of better teamwork.

Mechanical skill is on par, if not, slightly sub to what solo queue will be.

Teamwork is king.
02/19/2018 02:43 PMPosted by omnic
02/19/2018 01:37 PMPosted by SquidKD
They play a different game than solo queue players, a much harder game and a much more skillful game. A 3300 6-stack game is significantly better than a solo queue one.


You're going to need to expand on that.

02/19/2018 01:37 PMPosted by SquidKD
In addition, 6 stacks straight up get less SR. This is a well documented fact. If you want to rank up, you play solo queue.


This could be a fair point however I'm still skeptical of if it's meaningful enough. However it's not applicable for all skill ranges since Blizzard made it so at diamond and above you always gain or lose in 25 sr blocks (unless you quit during a game and lose 50 sr).

But still. You're going to need to provide a bit more than "people playing in a 6 man are playing a harder game". Because I don't think they're experiencing a harder game mode unless you're 6 man stacking in the top 500 and end up playing against literal pro teams that are skirmishing.

When you 6-stack, you play against other 6-stacks. Overwatch as a game improves, and those involved must too. This is why 6-stacks don’t play against solo queuers, because they are better. They are given better opponents to compensate. You literally just have to play better in a 6-stack because your opponents are also in a 6-stack. You can’t just go in 1v6 on Genji and hope to carry like in solo queue, you actually have to understand the game and play it properly. As for the SR gains, I will remind you that all Blizzard did is remove PBSR. You still gain less if you were of higher SR than the enemy. Additionally, you just straight up gain less SR in 6-stacks. For me, this means about 21-23 SR instead of 24-26, but this can differ depending on the people you are grouped with and their SR.
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
When you 6-stack, you play against other 6-stacks. Overwatch as a game improves, and those involved must too. This is why 6-stacks don’t play against solo queuers, because they are better.

You are leaping to conclusions here. The reason 6 stacks don't play against solo queuers isn't because they are better. It is because they are more likely to have better teamwork than 6 random Overwatch players thrown together. So instead of just better you should have stated "are more likely to have better teamwork than 6 random Overwatch players thrown together".
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
They are given better opponents to compensate. You literally just have to play better in a 6-stack because your opponents are also in a 6-stack.

I have shown your better statement to wrong so we can change this to. "They are given opponents more likely to have better teamwork than 6 random Overwatch players thrown together." The fact that you feel like you have to play better in a team would seem to indicate you are unable to do this in solo-queue. One would hope you would play at least the same, except in a team you wouldn't have to worry that you couldn't trust a team-mate.
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
You can’t just go in 1v6 on Genji and hope to carry like in solo queue, you actually have to understand the game and play it properly.

Who the hell would do this. LOL <1k bronze? Is this how you play when solo-queued? Whoever does that in solo-queue would deserve to be crushed and plummet to the ELO they belong, your statement has no point. Imagine how good the solo-queuer is to win with someone like this on their team? And you don't even have to worry about it, sounds like you have an easier time in your matches.
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
As for the SR gains, I will remind you that all Blizzard did is remove PBSR. You still gain less if you were of higher SR than the enemy. Additionally, you just straight up gain less SR in 6-stacks. For me, this means about 21-23 SR instead of 24-26, but this can differ depending on the people you are grouped with and their SR.

I can't really comment here, it may be true, I honestly wouldn't know, so what 10% less SR to account for the 84% of your team you can't control in solo-queue?
02/19/2018 04:06 PMPosted by predat0r
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
When you 6-stack, you play against other 6-stacks. Overwatch as a game improves, and those involved must too. This is why 6-stacks don’t play against solo queuers, because they are better.

You are leaping to conclusions here. The reason 6 stacks don't play against solo queuers isn't because they are better. It is because they are more likely to have better teamwork than 6 random Overwatch players thrown together. So instead of just better you should have stated "are more likely to have better teamwork than 6 random Overwatch players thrown together".
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
They are given better opponents to compensate. You literally just have to play better in a 6-stack because your opponents are also in a 6-stack.

I have shown your better statement to wrong so we can change this to. "They are given opponents more likely to have better teamwork than 6 random Overwatch players thrown together." The fact that you feel like you have to play better in a team would seem to indicate you are unable to do this in solo-queue. One would hope you would play at least the same, except in a team you wouldn't have to worry that you couldn't trust a team-mate.
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
You can’t just go in 1v6 on Genji and hope to carry like in solo queue, you actually have to understand the game and play it properly.

Who the hell would do this. LOL <1k bronze? Is this how you play when solo-queued? Whoever does that in solo-queue would deserve to be crushed and plummet to the ELO they belong, your statement has no point. Imagine how good the solo-queuer is to win with someone like this on their team? And you don't even have to worry about it, sounds like you have an easier time in your matches.
02/19/2018 03:16 PMPosted by SquidKD
As for the SR gains, I will remind you that all Blizzard did is remove PBSR. You still gain less if you were of higher SR than the enemy. Additionally, you just straight up gain less SR in 6-stacks. For me, this means about 21-23 SR instead of 24-26, but this can differ depending on the people you are grouped with and their SR.

I can't really comment here, it may be true, I honestly wouldn't know, so what 10% less SR to account for the 84% of your team you can't control in solo-queue?

That means you need a 10% higher winrate to climb in an environment where mistakes are punished more effectively. When I say “1v6 as Genji”, the connotation is that solo plays are less valuable in 6 stacks versus solo queue. I’m not saying that I or anyone in my rank does this. You 100% have to be better coordinated as a team in a 6-stack, because it is a guarantee that the other team has that extra coordination. Good coordination is not a given in a six stack, it is an important skill that is what fundamentally makes playing in a six-stack harder than solo queue.
02/18/2018 10:14 AMPosted by Applesoup
02/18/2018 10:10 AMPosted by Lightwaves
I read it often in this forum, whenever some " low rank" like me posts about how the sr system is screwing us over. "You are at the SR you belong", "Stop blaming others" ,"There's no such thing as bad luck", "Focus on yourself","If you're there you're doing something wrong".
So, ask yourself, what are you doing that is keeping you at the "SR that you belong."

You do realize that there are "high rank" players right? They don't have the same problems that you have. That's why you hear these responses.

Figure out what they are doing right, what you are doing wrong, and you will climb too!


BS reply...

Let those "high rank" players solo queue through a whole season starting from the 10 match qualifiers and see where they end up.

I can guarantee you they will not do that.
02/19/2018 05:42 PMPosted by Sinnirr
02/18/2018 10:14 AMPosted by Applesoup
...So, ask yourself, what are you doing that is keeping you at the "SR that you belong."

You do realize that there are "high rank" players right? They don't have the same problems that you have. That's why you hear these responses.

Figure out what they are doing right, what you are doing wrong, and you will climb too!


BS reply...

Let those "high rank" players solo queue through a whole season starting from the 10 match qualifiers and see where they end up.

I can guarantee you they will not do that.

I did it. My alt is currently higher than my main. Placements were playing in gold.
I’m a high rank player (well, higher than average) who primarily solo queues (95% of the time) and between now and season 3 I’ve been everywhere from 1400 to 3400. I’ve had steady improvement in all of my seasons. It took me less than a season to climb from bronze to gold, two seasons to climb from gold to plat, and only this season have I finally made diamond (although there is a chance I’ll break 3500 by the end of the season).

I’ve had bad days and gone on streaks where every match seems to have a thrower or toxic player, and no matter how well I play nothing is working. I’ve played with racists, sexists, people that think they deserve GM, people whose catchphrase is “my shoulders are so sore”, and people whose catchphrase is “kys”.

Yet I still climbed. From my own experience, leavers and trolls can account for at most a minor difference in your SR. Maybe one day they’re exceptionally bad, and they tank you 200 SR, but you will earn that back.

The danger is becoming tilted ourselves, and that’s when you can get hardstuck in a rank. If you want to rank up, make sure you keep a calm, neutral attitude no matter what goes wrong.

Teammate instalocks Hanzo? Well, will flaming him make him more likely to swap or make it more likely he refuses to swap even if he’s not doing well. Teammate screws up an ult? Well, will flaming them improve their play or put them in a bad mood and make it more likely that they make mistakes?

You’re “carrying” and no one else is doing anything? Will demeaning your teammates’ play do anything to make them want to work with you?

The problem doesn’t have to be your mechanical skill or gamesense. Even if those aspects of your play are 1-2 ranks above where you are now, overwatch is a team game and it only takes a single tilted player to ruin the game. If you make sure you’re never that player, then you’ve increased your chances of winning matches you thought you would lose. So what if you think you’re carrying, you’re not going to improve your team’s morale by calling everyone else useless. Focus on your own attitude when you play, and I promise you’ll rank up over time.
02/19/2018 02:43 PMPosted by omnic
You're going to need to provide a bit more than "people playing in a 6 man are playing a harder game". Because I don't think they're experiencing a harder game


I'm guessing you have never played in a full stack then or you would just know it's a way tougher game. 6vs6 is a totally different animal then solo queue. I've not even played comp for a few seasons now but solo queue, even back then, was a cake walk vs what was required player skill wise in a stack even at meh no one cares 3k.

Solo queue play is more sloppy and errors don't get punished as quickly. You can be out of position a bit more being you're not going to get caught by say 3 players of the other team, maybe it's just a fair 1vs1 fight. Weak flanking moves get seen, called out and most of all reacted too much faster in stack games. Everything gets reacted to faster and it's by everyone.

So your game play has to be tighter and way more consistent when playing in a stack.
It's why some have said the limitations of stack vs solo should be removed to force everyone to get better at team work. Being as long as solo queue is so sloppy people will not bother with better team comps, better team work etc being they don't have to do it. If solo players were facing stacks all the time and get blown out by better team work, they would be forced to focus on that side of the game too.
Your SR at the beginning of a season is partially to do with your hidden MMR rating and how you get matched up against players in placements.

For example, I know a particularly skilled somebody who was around platinum in the first 3 seasons playing comp casually w/ friends. Played quickplay seriously for around around 4-5 seasons, came back and did placements again in comp. Placements put him into masters (around 3600), because his MMR was adjusted via quickplay so he played against masters and GMs in placements and his ranking was adjusted accordingly after placements. I bet a lot of people here don't know that you can gain SR ranking indirectly by tryhard grinding through quickplay, and it's a lot less stressful.(I'm guessing a lot of people here don't believe me either... I'm testing this for myself this season to offer more proof).

You're going to lose roughly half your games in general, so in general when you are losing it's going to look like your team sucks !@#(you need to learn how to enjoy these ones and LEARN SOMETHING NEW FROM EVERY GAME YOU LOSE), the ones that you win you don't notice how $%^-ty your teammates are because you are still winning. It's basic psychology. The matches that are dead even are your time to shine and really push with good decision making, hero picking, and personal performance. You want to make the difference in your games and turn the tides. Learn some heroes that can deal with annoying strategies, like bastion comps, etc. Learn how to win games. Learn how to turn around losing games. If you can make some adjustments you can see crazy match turnarounds sometimes. If you don't make basic efforts to improve your play every time then you won't improve your rank. ESPECIALLY if you focus on bad teammates. You can't rely on teammates, so become a god and learn how to position yourself to not die and how to get kills WITHOUT a team. That's how you carry and that's how you rank up over multiple games.
02/19/2018 06:07 PMPosted by DeadLamb
I'm guessing you have never played in a full stack then or you would just know it's a way tougher game. 6vs6 is a totally different animal then solo queue.

Careful with your generalizations here. Yes it is a different game but I wouldn't say tougher. Some of us solo-queuers have played competitive team games on the national/international level in organised teams and whenever we enter a 6 stack we dominate, but oddly enough more often than not see the similar kinds of mistakes we see in solo-queue.
02/19/2018 06:07 PMPosted by DeadLamb
Solo queue play is more sloppy and errors don't get punished as quickly. You can be out of position a bit more being you're not going to get caught by say 3 players of the other team, maybe it's just a fair 1vs1 fight. Weak flanking moves get seen, called out and most of all reacted too much faster in stack games. Everything gets reacted to faster and it's by everyone.

Don't underestimate the skill of some solo-queuers. Many can often spot the flank just as quick, call it out and still beat it without the rest of their team behind them.
02/19/2018 06:07 PMPosted by DeadLamb
So your game play has to be tighter and way more consistent when playing in a stack.

Not seeing it from your earlier arguments. Some of us mastered this long ago but still solo-queue where it is even more challenging because you have to be able to deal with this by yourself.
02/19/2018 06:07 PMPosted by DeadLamb
Being as long as solo queue is so sloppy people will not bother with better team comps, better team work etc being they don't have to do it.

Assumptions much? To climb often they do have to use team-work but it is ALOT harder because of the random elements they face in EVERY match.
02/19/2018 06:07 PMPosted by DeadLamb
If solo players were facing stacks all the time and get blown out by better team work, they would be forced to focus on that side of the game too.

Yes teamwork is an advantage, but don't think solo-queuers don't necessarily already have it in spades. Quick thinking and being able to rapidly adapt when you have that OTP on your team, or supporting the weakest link on the fly to advance.

You aren't as good as you think you are.
I solo queue Sombra.

I'm sure it's my fault.
Why bother with these posts? Isn't it obvious that Blizzard doesn't give a flying f*ck? Boosted and carried people are everywhere, and so are the throwers, leavers, griefers and smurfs.

The complaints were there since season 2. No official response on how to fix it. They can go screw themselves. The only thing they care about is your wallet when they release skins on poorly developed events.
gulugulufish blizzard have literally squashed the whole QP impacts Comp. They are completely separate.
I see allot of "the system does this or that" in the reply's. As this is a big thread im sure blizzard will follow. So here is me hoping they will read this.

I start with saying i do not know if the system/matchmaker manipulates our games in order to get us to a rank where it thinks we belong. However im a stats nerd and i like to keep track of them, although not scientific. Here go's nothing.

When i started playing i placed mid silver, i learned a bit and slowly got to gold. Soon as i hit gold i drop to almost bronze. I buy a second account and get placed at 2350. I play and slowly i climb to 2505, and yes, soon as i hit that i dropped all the way down to silver.

I kept playing both accounts and then suddenly i go from silver to plat in 2 days on both accounts. The saga continues. I kept playing and trying to learn and improve, however every time i came close or after setting new season/career high i would drop at least 500 sr but more often then not more.

The thing i noticed is that when i reached my skill cap and i had to really perform well the games where close and hard. These games usually lasted for about 1 or 2 sessions, but where always follow by a huge losing streak.

I do follow the advice people give, so i tend to take breaks after losing 1 or 2. Some times il just not play and do something else. I try to look at my own mistakes etc etc.

But this climbing followed by a huge losing streak is always the same across all my accounts. Now here me out before you think: oh look another blame the system noob.

When the same thing happens all the time on more then 1 account and in all seasons i played, also seeing the same thing happen with my friends and the forums posts about it. I think there must be something wrong.

I like to think i am an honest person able to judge myself, and when i play bad i'll be the first to admit it. But losing 800 sr in 2 days is not me suddenly being bad at the game.

a small example:

Yesterday i played on my main soloq 15 win 5 losses. Today i played soloq 1 win 7 losses.

On my alt i placed 2630, i played and in 3 days i got to 2985SR. The next 2 days i had 5 chances of getting into diamond and all the games where good games. Close and fun. The next day i drop to about 2600 and now its sitting at 2350 +/-.

I already know that my main account is gone, the chances of me getting it back up in the days that remain are low. I also know that on my alt one of these days il get a huge winning streak.

Anyway i think you get the point. I dont think the system is working as intended. Even though i dislike the pbsr below 3k i can handle that. But if the system manipulates games to put players at a rank "IT" thinks they belong then that is wrong. Other then placing players based on performance at the start of the season it should never ever interfere after that.
02/19/2018 01:32 PMPosted by Tapsum!@#$
02/19/2018 01:30 PMPosted by jedc22
you do realize odds are just that, right? odds. there is no guarantee, there is no certain percentage where it starts balancing out. they also don't just encompass you, your team or the enemy team.


You do realise that the more games you play, the closer you get to the statistical anomaly? Literally how the law of averages works.

Play 10 games? Yeah might get skewed a bit... 50 games? 100 games? 200 games?

because statistical anomalies don't happen every day. because someones mother doesn't call them out to dinner. because someones internet doesn't cut out. because there is never a storm that causes a power surge. you literally CANNOT just say "statistics bro" as a valid answer. you are assuming everything and know nothing about any specific situation. there is no constant for your statistics to be based off.
Ego1in1Finem

As frustrating as it is.... Is it possible to conceive that your "season high" was a luck streak, and you are much higher than you should be? personally on multiple accounts, this has not occurred until i have hit that rating... Lets look deeper.

Your overall skill rank is the 39th percentile... your top ranked hero is Junkrat at the 71st percentile, which puts you at 2708 with Junkrat solely going off percentile...

C0derwatch has your top hero tied with Junkrat and Orisa, with an estimated SR of 2457. Overall C0derwatch has your SR at 2359.....

Take from that what you will.

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