Frost (PvP)gearing @ 85, theorycraft

I was thinking I'd try to calculate exact stats but then I was like F that math sucks I'll ask on forums. :D

Assuming our spec will be -
Has +3% haste from arcane, since blazing speed got nerfed.
Frostfire Orb vs. Shattered Barrier is the only thing I could see being arguable really, which is a non-factor in the math.

Assuming our priority will be-

1. Get hit and spell pen cap (of course)
2. Get crit to the % where it's increase in average shatter damage becomes less than mastery's increase to average shatter damage (assuming somewhere between 60 and 90%)
3. Stack mastery to +X% damage on frozen targets
4. If @ gear level you can afford it with, stack haste until you can fit one extra spell into DF
5. Stack more mastery

This is for optimal shatter damage and damage inside DF of course.
Assuming our shatter damage is more important by far than anything else now, damage outside shatter/FoF will be pretty much insignificant. I think it's obvious this will be the case, but feel free to argue against 240%+ more damage with frostbolt on frozen targets. :P

Things that would be good to know -

1. What % we want our crit at before starting to stack mastery
2. How high our crit/mastery need to be before it's a damage increase to get X% haste, where X is of course enough to fit an extra cast inside DF window
3. After 1 & 2 are accomplished, continue to gear mastery, get closer to 100% crit, get more haste, or some combination of the 3 at a particular ratio?

I'd, personally, use instead. Burning Soul is still a talent that's up in the air and the up time of Ice Barrier/Icy Veins for frost are a must making the talent negligible. Now you have a mana efficient spec that provides a near constant Replen for your group (assuming you're outside arena or they changed the replen-to-self only rule), with 1 flavor point to spare. For me, it's a debate between Invocation and Early Frost.

Seeing how resil no longer reduces chance to be crit...I'd say getting at least 17% crit from gear to put you in the green side of crit chance. If you go the Early Frost route, now that it also reduces the GCD when it procs, your relative haste needed will be a bit less than if you chose to go for Invocation.

Mastery...just get a %**! ton of it.
Our Ice Barrier is a lot weaker, our poly is longer cast, and Mage Armor now regens a ton of mana while we have less reason to use Ice Armor.

I doubt mana will be more of an issue than pushback.
Either way, none of the talents you're discussing are a factor in gearing anyway.

With our crit multiplier I am pretty sure you want more than just 17% crit before stacking mastery, not only does it make our burst much more reliable but it's also just more damage overall due to our crit multiplier adding so much more, and we already have a base mastery of 20% on top of frostbolt's +20% on frozen targets. It'd take a lot of mastery to make 2/4 crits > 3/4 crits.

2. Get crit to the % where it's increase in average shatter damage becomes less than mastery's increase to average shatter damage (assuming somewhere between 60 and 90%)

Wait, what? You don't seriously mean 60% to 90% crit chance, do you? You'll be lucky to reach 20% if you focus heavily on crit (leaving you very little room to add any Mastery or Haste at all).

Also, Ice Barrier was not nerfed. I'm not sure why this belief persists.
2. Get crit to the % where it's increase in average shatter damage becomes less than mastery's increase to average shatter damage (assuming somewhere between 60 and 90%)

Wait, what? You don't seriously mean 60% to 90% crit chance, do you? You'll be lucky to reach 20% if you focus heavily on crit.

Also, Ice Barrier was not nerfed. I'm not sure why this belief persists.

On frozen targets, not actually 60-90% base crit. >_<

Ice Barrier absorbs less relative to total health, it was nerfed. I know it wasn't properly scaling for awhile and that was fixed, but it's still going to be weaker than it was.
Also crit and mastery are much stronger than SP now, which is the stat Ice Barrier scales with, so it will also be weaker simply due to the way we gear.
OK. That makes more sense. (Except for the Ice Barrier thing, of course. The fact that health was buffed does not mean Ice Barrier was nerfed. That's like saying that because I got a larger gas tank put in my car, my mileage was nerfed because a gallon of gas still takes me the same distance. An utterly absurd statement. Now if it weren't keeping pace with damage output then you could argue it had been nerfed relative to offense.)

I think it will be very difficult to reach even 20% crit if you want to have other stats. In T11 PvE gear, fully gemmed and enchanted, with Molten Armor glyphed for an extra 2% crit, I'm at 18.4% crit, 3.27% haste, and 10 mastery (+2 from gear) -- and PvE gear has two rating stats per item, vs only one on PvP gear (the second being replaced by Resilience), so your total rating in PvP gear is going to be considerably lower.

Also, you generally can't make tradeoffs between Intellect (which is where your spell power will come from) and Crit/Mastery/Haste. Intellect just comes with the item level. You mostly make your decisions between Crit/Mastery/Haste/Resilience. I believe the only place you can really choose to trade Intellect for other stats is on gems. It's a primary stat, so you can't reforge it.
What Lhiv means is that reaching 20% crit from gear is going to be a challenge if you want to focus on anything BUT crit. 60-90% crit on frozen targets would require 20-30% crit from gear, which won't be readily available in PvP, at least not in the first tier.

Lastly, Int is THE most important stat before crit or mastery, which coincides with a more powerful Ice Barrier. You're not going to forego int if you plan on killing anything.

Anyway, I said Ice Barrier/Icy Veins UP TIME will be a must for frost PvP, meaning you won't want to have much time casting sans barrier, which makes the questionable talent Burning Soul a wash for frost.
Anywhoo, this is how I plan to gear for s9.

Ring 1:
Ring 2:
Trinket 1:
Trinket 2:

Will Update Later: food time!!!
Pre-Cata we gemmed SP+haste mainly.
In Cata we'll gem crit+mastery mainly.

Mixing in some PvE with the PvP blue set mages in beta are achieving 20% crit with manageable resilience levels.

Crit will be more important than having other stats because our damage on non-frozen targets is insignificant enough that we'll basically gear around shatter completely.

Int is our weakest stat for damage by far, I don't think we'll be using any more than is on our gear and can't be reforged regardless of it affecting Ice Barrier.

So wanting to have other stats is no issue, we'll simply gear crit all the way until we hit some point between 20 and 30% crit(60-90% on shatter) at which mastery starts to increase average damage on shatters more.

As for Ice Barrier, damage relative to health might be lower but it's definitely taking off Ice Barrier faster in beta than it was pre-4.0 according to all reports I've seen on it from mages with beta. I could argue the semantics but it doesn't really matter, Ice Barrier is definitely weaker post 4.0.
Mixing in some PvE with the PvP blue set mages in beta are achieving 20% crit with manageable resilience levels.

What I've heard from Affix is that this is not at all true; your resilience if you do this will be much too low.

Int is our weakest stat for damage by far.

Not really, no. Example of Frostbolt, starting with 6000 spell power, 15% crit (plus 5% from glyph for total of 20%), 10 Mastery (+25% damage):

Avg base damage: 744
Spell power bonus: 0.857 * 6000 = 5142
Avg dmg vs frozen target: (744 + 5142) * 1.25 * (1 + 0.6 * 1.995) * 1.2 * 1.25 = 24246.64

If we increase spell power by 100:
Spell power bonus: 0.857 * 6100 = 5228
Crit chance: (20% + 100 / 648.91) * 3 = 60.46%
Avg dmg vs frozen target: (744 + 5228) * 1.25 * (1 + 0.6046 * 1.995) * 1.2 * 1.25 = 24703.67

If we increase crit rating by 100:
Crit chance: (20% + 100 / 179.28) * 3 = 61.67%
Avg dmg vs frozen target: (744 + 5142) * 1.25 * (1 + 0.6167 * 1.995) * 1.2 * 1.25 = 24600.91

If we increase mastery rating by 100:
Mastery multiplier: 1 + (0.25 + 100 / 179.28 * 0.025) = 1.2639
Avg dmg vs frozen target: (744 + 5142) * 1.25 * (1 + 0.6 * 1.995) * 1.2 * 1.2639 = 24516.26

Resulting increases:
+457.03: Intellect
+354.27: Crit
+269.62: Mastery

This is the problem with a lot of your arguments, Lampbug: you don't do the math to check and see if what you assume is actually true. If you can't do the math yourself, go ahead and ask. Much better to find out if you're proceeding from faulty assumptions before you start making assertions based on those assumptions.
We should have seen it coming from a level 1 gnome mage Lhiv, sad to say.
I was assuming we'd have enough int simply from gear to make it not worth gearing for any extra. I admit I haven't done any math on it, but all I've read on the subject of frost gearing has led me to believe, @ 85 Crit to 20-30% > Mastery > Haste > Spell Power.

What really matters is the numbers at which certain stats fall behind others and I thought int would become less valuable at a low enough # that we wouldn't want more than is on our gear. I can certainly admit I've done no math on it at all however.

If I'm wrong though feel free to correct me, but what will convince me isn't an example at a specific gear level, it's knowing just how much int we'll need before it's worth stacking other stats.

If int really was better for damage period, then it seems like every mage post on gearing I've read is wrong.

Also, regarding resilience, Affix has always liked the stat more than a lot of other Mages. There were plenty of Gladiator Mages wearing ~900 resil in s8 while IIRC Affix wore a ton.
He's also looking at the stat from a 2800+ perspective, but at lower levels of play and in rated BGs I'm pretty sure most Mages prefer more offensive stats.
Something that would be great to know, on that note, is what our base stats will be in the epic PvP set rather than the blue set which we won't be wearing for long anyway.

If 6k Spell Power is our base then your math would certainly prove me wrong and we'd want to gear for some spell power before crit.

Also is there a calculator online that you're doing that math from Lhiv?
I'd like to mess with it if so.
No, I just did the math right there in the post.

It is true that every stat changes in value as you increase or decrease the other stats. When you add more Intellect, Crit/Haste/Mastery all become more valuable relative to Intellect. But that's true if you add more Crit as well -- Int/Haste/Mastery all become more valuable relative to Crit. So there's no point at which one stat stops being valuable. You reach a point where another stat may become more valuable -- but as soon as you add more of that stat, the first may become more valuable again.

In the T11 premade gear, I have 6535 spell power self-buffed. That of course includes gems and enchants that boost intellect. That includes 615 Intellect from gems, socket bonuses, and enchants, so with the multiplier on arcane brilliance factored, I'm at 5883 self-buffed without those gems and enchants. The PvP gear will presumably be comparable.
That's basically what I made this thread for, to find at out @ what numbers it's best to gear for which stat. And I did prefix my priority system with "assuming". :P

Once you hit that first point at which crit becomes more valuable relative to int though, isn't crit more valuable up until 20-30%?

I wish I could find a good tool online that would let me kind of chart it out but I had no luck with google.
No -- once you hit a balance point, every change you make just wobbles the balance back and forth. It won't necessarily be 1:1, but it won't be a huge difference. If you hit a point where, say, Int and Crit are exactly equal in value, then you'll probably find that at that point you want to add 2-3 crit rating for every point of intellect (because a point of intellect is worth considerably more).

Of course it's a hell of a lot more complicated when you're balancing four stats instead of two.

There's no tool because it's not a simple thing to calculate. My sim takes hours to calculate the relative stat values at a given level of gear. SimulationCraft is much much faster, but even it can take a good fifteen minutes or so if you're running enough iterations to make it really accurate. That's a hard thing to put up on the web without making a host very angry with you.
Yeah I can see how it'd be complicated.

I think we could simplify it and get a close enough idea knowing what stat #s would be achievable though, which is why it'd be great to know base stats of an epic PvP set @ 85.

I can't imagine we'll gear for any less than 20% crit though. And after suffering through s9 with way less haste than PvEing mages, I'll raid if I have to to get decent offensive stats. BGs and 2 DPS 2vs2 is probably all I'll play anyway(resil will be less valuable in both) assuming my guild can easily pull off 2200 rating in BGs.

And looking at the PvE vs. PvP gear models.../sigh

I don't think raiding is going to get you to the stats you want. The stats I listed above fall short of 20% crit, and that's in full T11 PvE gear, gemmed and enchanted. I could reforge for more crit, but I haven't got a lot of haste and mastery to spare. You could reforge hit to crit in PvP of course, but I'm not even hit capped in that gear -- and you're certainly not going to want to wear a full set, so there's only so much you're going to be able to do with it.
Quoting a beta Mage's post on AJ -

on beta my stats are; and that's with some pve epix,

7000 spd
35% mastery
20% crit
10% haste
2100 resilience

Also, I doubt I'll wear any haste beyond what I can't reforge. No point as it won't help with shatters until you can achieve a certain # that in s9 will be well above what we'll be able to achieve without making too many sacrifices to more important stats.

Having a faster frostbolt cast is nice and getting more off can potentially get you more FoF procs over time, but Frost is not going to be about putting out sustained damage(exact opposite really) in Cata PvP unless they make major changes.

Wonder if he dipped into the crafted gear? I haven't looked at that stuff. Of course, that's very low resilience -- lower even than the blue set on the earlier premades. Looks like less than 20% DR. But perhaps as you say, many Mages will prefer to run fragile.

Correction: it's actually only about 7.6% damage reduction.

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