Bad luck protection confirmation?

General Discussion
10/06/2016 08:06 AMPosted by Fappy
If some blue could just come in here and reassure us that such a thing exists and is working, I'd be greatly appreciative.


They didnt say you WOULD get one. The next tier will be tuned around MOST having Legendary. You will be in the other group...and yknow... someone has to be. :(
Even people that get fresh 110s I mean there first character get one as well.

http://oi66.tinypic.com/syuq81.jpg

Not the Sauc guy but the 2nd one with the 783 ilvl upgrade was his first 110, and i ran that about 2 days ago
Bad luck protection does not mean that after X amount of time you are guaranteed to have one.


That's actually exactly what it means, because the intent is to remove the possibility of never getting one. We just don't know yet how long "X amount of time" is:

The primary issue with the people complaining because they expect to have had a legendary by now, is they have no clue how fast that range is actually shrinking. It could be linear, it could be exponential.
My tinfoil hat theory is they only want so many people to have them up until a certain point so there is essentially a second protection against people getting them. It would be nice if they would release information about how they plan on being able to target certain ones like they said at blizzcon.
10/06/2016 09:42 AMPosted by Ericadin
My tinfoil hat theory is they only want so many people to have them up until a certain point so there is essentially a second protection against people getting them. It would be nice if they would release information about how they plan on being able to target certain ones like they said at blizzcon.


Problem with that is the ones with like 5-8+ legendaries already won't even need the second protection cause they already have them all by then
10/06/2016 08:18 AMPosted by Fappy
If I knew for certain that "keeping at it" really would result in me getting one, than I'd be all for it. That's why I'm asking if the bad luck protection exists, and for a confirmation.


I can tell you with 100% assurance that if you don't "keep at it", you won't get one.
10/06/2016 08:33 AMPosted by Jostlen
10/06/2016 08:30 AMPosted by Vanarela
There is no rush. You do not need a legendary right now.

Seriously. I really do not understand the obsession with legendaries. If I get one, cool. If not, I'll still be able to do everything that I want to do.


In two weeks the gap between those who have gotten 1 (and likely 2 given the bug) and you will grow. Could reach 10-15% differential if they got decent legendaries.
10/06/2016 09:48 AMPosted by Dunkelzahn
10/06/2016 08:33 AMPosted by Jostlen
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Seriously. I really do not understand the obsession with legendaries. If I get one, cool. If not, I'll still be able to do everything that I want to do.


In two weeks the gap between those who have gotten 1 (and likely 2 given the bug) and you will grow. Could reach 10-15% differential if they got decent legendaries.

I'm not concerned with how much better some random person is doing than me. I will still be able to do everything I want, like clearing 5-mans and killing raid bosses with my guild.
10/06/2016 09:48 AMPosted by Dunkelzahn
10/06/2016 08:33 AMPosted by Jostlen
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Seriously. I really do not understand the obsession with legendaries. If I get one, cool. If not, I'll still be able to do everything that I want to do.


In two weeks the gap between those who have gotten 1 (and likely 2 given the bug) and you will grow. Could reach 10-15% differential if they got decent legendaries.

I feel sure that the best players in the world, with high end rigs and playing in the same room and an extremely tweaked UI, can outperform me by 20% or more, even with worse gear than I have.

I don't care in the least about that, and I don't see why I should care about this either. Caring about it would make the game significantly less fun for me, not more fun.

I already have more than enough performance for everything I care about doing today, and I can't foresee a time when that is likely to change.
A common misinterpretation I am seeing is that bad luck protection = Guaranteed Legendary right away.

This is not the case. Bad luck protection is probably a small, slowly accumulating buff to your RNG success. This does not guarantee you'll get one right away, but slowly boosts your RNG for each time you successfully trigger an RNG check for a legendary.

Let's play with some numbers to elaborate this.

let's say the Legendary protection is +100% of your base for each time you trigger an RNG check without getting a legendary. Each time you pull that RNG lever, the equation would look like this:

*NOTE* This is not the official formula, only an example

Base =.01%
Protection = Base x Pull
Pull = Number of times you triggered Legendary RNG check

So the formula would look something like:
Success = Base + Protection

See how small that bonus from Protection would be? If you activated say, 100 times, Protection would be +1%, making your Success on RNG 1.01%. While that is much MUCH higher than the base, it is still a very low chance.

For it to build up to what a guaranteed Legendary would take a lot of work to get your Protectio build up to a 99.99% to make it a true Guaranteed Drop. You would b e looking at about 9999 RNG checks to get it high enough.

So a Legendary Protection does not equal guaranteed legendary. it only increased your odds of RNG going your way.
Legendary? At this point I'll take any semi-good trinket for tanking. My Vengeance tank and this DK right here can't seem to get the ones they need regardless of coin tosses or mythic keystone runs.

As far as I know legendaries simply don't exist.
10/06/2016 08:28 AMPosted by Angelcrusher
Dude I'm 20 days played, have done every emissary quest daily, cleared EN several times, I've done every mythic dungeon weekly, still don't have one.

Bad luck protection, my @ss.

The only thing that has been confirmed so far is that Blizzard gave the lucky people extra luck.


A Mage in my guild got his third legendary yesterday, I'm not convinced they fixed anything.
10/06/2016 10:56 AMPosted by Frostbolts
A Mage in my guild got his third legendary yesterday, I'm not convinced they fixed anything.


Just because someone got lucky with RNG 3 times doesn't mean it's broken. The odds may be low of being that lucky, but the chances of it happening still exist so it can still happen.
10/06/2016 10:52 AMPosted by Douglas
10/06/2016 09:48 AMPosted by Dunkelzahn
...

In two weeks the gap between those who have gotten 1 (and likely 2 given the bug) and you will grow. Could reach 10-15% differential if they got decent legendaries.

I feel sure that the best players in the world, with high end rigs and playing in the same room and an extremely tweaked UI, can outperform me by 20% or more, even with worse gear than I have.

I don't care in the least about that, and I don't see why I should care about this either. Caring about it would make the game significantly less fun for me, not more fun.

I already have more than enough performance for everything I care about doing today, and I can't foresee a time when that is likely to change.


Not sure that's right. Perfecting rotation is pretty simple now, give the class "streamlining." The biggest differences in differential dps are class and gear. Class is all Blizz. Gear is what players generally can control to some degree, but a two-legendary gear gap likely will be significant and -- like hoping for class balance -- cannot be reliably obtained.
10/06/2016 10:53 AMPosted by Frathlir
This is not the case. Bad luck protection is probably a small, slowly accumulating buff to your RNG success. This does not guarantee you'll get one right away, but slowly boosts your RNG for each time you successfully trigger an RNG check for a legendary.

I have heard this theory more than once, that the odds go up with each RNG check. Where does this idea come from?

I haven't heard anything from Blizzard that would even hint at it being based on anything but time (and I'm not even sure whether that time is "/played" or calendar time).
In the normal EN I did on Tuesday, three people each got their first legendary. Prior to that, I was the only person to get a legendary from our normal and heroic runs.

While it's certainly possible that that is all a coincidence, it definitely suggests that something is going on.
10/06/2016 11:06 AMPosted by Dunkelzahn
10/06/2016 10:52 AMPosted by Douglas
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I feel sure that the best players in the world, with high end rigs and playing in the same room and an extremely tweaked UI, can outperform me by 20% or more, even with worse gear than I have.

I don't care in the least about that, and I don't see why I should care about this either. Caring about it would make the game significantly less fun for me, not more fun.

I already have more than enough performance for everything I care about doing today, and I can't foresee a time when that is likely to change.


Not sure that's right. Perfecting rotation is pretty simple now, give the class "streamlining." The biggest differences in differential dps are class and gear.

Maybe, but I don't think I agree.

First, I've seen more than a few pretty bad players. Second, I don't do DPS in challenging content, I'm a healer -- "rotation" is (IMHO) less important than coordination and target selection.

(Even for DPS, I don't see it. A DPS DH who knows when to interrupt and is very aware of soul fragments is going to outperform one who focuses narrowly on their rotation, because all that other stuff is a resource generator. And if you stand in the fire and die, your DPS tends to drop off a bit, and I blame that on the DPS, not the healer.)
10/06/2016 11:09 AMPosted by Douglas
I haven't heard anything from Blizzard that would even hint at it being based on anything but time (and I'm not even sure whether that time is "/played" or calendar time).


I can't remember where I read it or which blizzard employee stated it. I may be remembering incorrectly as well *shrugs* I didn't see a reason to memorize it at that time. The way I understood it was the more things you do, like World Quests, Emissary completions, every boss you kill in any dungeon or raid counts for the RNG check. I heard mobs out in the world count too but again, I cannot remember where I read it.

Based on time would be a weird way to do it, as people would just AFK and sit in a capital and let the buff timer rise. It makes far more sense on basing it on certain things being done as the player is actually playing the game.

I never stated what I wrote was absolute fact, but interpretation based on the things I read. The formula I wrote is most likely not accurate, but it shows how Bad Luck Protection can accumulate very slowly over time and build up, but still not yield a legendary immediately.

The only way to ensure it's guaranteed is for that bad luck protection to build up to 100%. anything else is open to RNG.
10/06/2016 11:14 AMPosted by Frathlir
10/06/2016 11:09 AMPosted by Douglas
I haven't heard anything from Blizzard that would even hint at it being based on anything but time (and I'm not even sure whether that time is "/played" or calendar time).


I can't remember where I read it or which blizzard employee stated it. I may be remembering incorrectly as well *shrugs* I didn't see a reason to memorize it at that time. The way I understood it was the more things you do, like World Quests, Emissary completions, every boss you kill in any dungeon or raid counts for the RNG check. I heard mobs out in the world count too but again, I cannot remember where I read it.

That, I remember. But what I took it to mean was basically "look, don't worry about it -- just play the way you're going to play, and eventually something will become very likely to get you your legendary, and there's no reason to focus on one kind of content, or on shear volume of content". I took it as them trying to get people to relax and not worry about it and just play as they otherwise would. "Just chill, no matter what you do you'll eventually get one, almost certainly" (with that "eventually" being like the holiday season or 2Q2017 or something).

Heh, I guess this time next year we'll have a clue who's right.
10/06/2016 11:12 AMPosted by Douglas
10/06/2016 11:06 AMPosted by Dunkelzahn
...

Not sure that's right. Perfecting rotation is pretty simple now, give the class "streamlining." The biggest differences in differential dps are class and gear.

Maybe, but I don't think I agree.

First, I've seen more than a few pretty bad players. Second, I don't do DPS in challenging content, I'm a healer -- "rotation" is (IMHO) less important than coordination and target selection.

(Even for DPS, I don't see it. A DPS DH who knows when to interrupt and is very aware of soul fragments is going to outperform one who focuses narrowly on their rotation, because all that other stuff is a resource generator. And if you stand in the fire and die, your DPS tends to drop off a bit, and I blame that on the DPS, not the healer.)


Fair, but i'd put the issues you flag (standing in fire, basic resource generation functionality) into the baseline of anyone playing the mythic+ or raid content. Once the basics are in place, gear and class define on dps. And if one random rarely acquired legendary makes a modest difference, the ability to equip two by those who were able to fortuitously take advantage of a bug will make a bigger difference.

All bets are off for healing, though. I defer to you (and other healers) on whether legendaries matter at all to you.

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