BfA will flop.

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07/19/2018 08:01 PMPosted by Elfsoldier
07/19/2018 08:00 PMPosted by Meritha
How are we defining flop?


WoD levels of dividing the subscriber basis by about half.

This is honestly looking ugly..


Pandaria Had 6.5 million
WoD launch had 11 million.
It ended with 5.5 million
1mi less than Pandaria.

It just kept the trend, every launch you have a swarm of people playing,
07/19/2018 07:51 PMPosted by Snowfox
I guess it depends what definition of 'flop' we use. Have other expansions 'flopped'?


I would say WoD starting with something like 10+ mil subs and ending with half that would be a flop. I honestly don't think the game has recovered since then.

If there's a mass exodus like that again, we're talking WoW players being cut to 1 - 2 mil and Final Fantasy taking over as the top MMO on the market. That's a big deal.

07/19/2018 09:01 PMPosted by Rickrolling
Pandaria Had 6.5 million


Maybe MoP ended with that due to SoO being almost a year long with no new content, but it definitely did not start that way, and was fairly populated throughout. Clearly, people came back for WoD because MoP was so good. Those people have mostly not returned...

To put it in perspective, my original server Azgalor was balanced for MoP. Alliance made a huge exit off that server and many of the big Horde guilds did too during WoD. It's been connected with 5 or 6 other servers since and is still a ghost town.
07/19/2018 09:01 PMPosted by Rickrolling
Pandaria Had 6.5 million
WoD launch had 11 million.
It ended with 5.5 million
1mi less than Pandaria.

It just kept the trend, every launch you have a swarm of people playing,


Thank you. Someone gets it.
07/19/2018 08:12 PMPosted by Buffyx
Claiming BfA will flop is just idle speculation at this point, wait 3 weeks and see how many players there are at launch, then wait another 3 months and see how many players remain. Part of me wants BfA to flop, so the devs are forced to retreat on their grindy gated 'content', time played metrics and pathfinder garbage


Then the executive border will hire new devs to do the exact same thing.
Its obviously that played metric time did not come from devs but from their bosses.

07/19/2018 07:51 PMPosted by Snowfox
I guess it depends what definition of 'flop' we use. Have other expansions 'flopped'?


I would say WoD starting with something like 10+ mil subs and ending with half that would be a flop. I honestly don't think the game has recovered since then.

If there's a mass exodus like that again, we're talking WoW players being cut to 1 - 2 mil and Final Fantasy taking over as the top MMO on the market. That's a big deal.

07/19/2018 09:01 PMPosted by Rickrolling
Pandaria Had 6.5 million


Maybe MoP ended with that due to SoO being almost a year long with no new content, but it definitely did not start that way, and clearly, people came back for WoD because MoP was so good. Those people have mostly not returned...

To put it in perspective, my original server Azgalor was balanced for MoP. Alliance made a huge exit off that server and many of the big Horde guilds did too. It's been connected with 5 or 6 other servers since and is still a ghost town.


Every last expansion patchs lasts for over an year, ICC, DS, SoO, Hellfire and now Antorus.
07/19/2018 09:01 PMPosted by Dremin
Maybe MoP ended with that due to SoO being almost a year long with no new content, but it definitely did not start that way, and clearly, people came back for WoD because MoP was so good. Those people have mostly not returned...


Look at the graph, please.

https://imgur.com/a/v0L6E93
07/19/2018 07:46 PMPosted by Elfsoldier
combine that with the dumbing down of classes with less mechanics,


How are all the classes dumbed down, and how do they have less mechanics (or abilities or whatever)?

Just looking at my BM Hunter, he has about 15 abilities, and that was just a quick count, which obviously changes slightly dependent on the talents I choose. And with the stat squish and changes to play styles/GCD/gear etc, its about the opposite of dumbed down. I have to, yknow, think about what I'm doing now.

As for the rest, why don't we wait and see how it goes before calling out that the sky is falling.
07/19/2018 08:11 PMPosted by Voronwë
07/19/2018 07:51 PMPosted by Snowfox
I guess it depends what definition of 'flop' we use. Have other expansions 'flopped'?


Every xpac is the worst thing that happened to WoW. I remember the bitter complaining at the start of WotLK, the bitter complaining at the start of Cataclysm, the bitter complaining at the start of MoP, the bitter complaining at the start of WoD and the bitter complaining at the start of Legion.

Seeing the cycle repeat once more brings me a strange sense of comfort. I'd be worried if the forums were unanimous in their praise of BfA.


much like how every other reasonably hyped mmo that comes out is the final nail in WoW's coffin and then guess who wants their subscription back two months later, or how every year there's a "war on christmas" and yet it still comes.

i don't think the label of "flop" should mean an utter failure so disastrous that it would have ended WoW entirely. imo it's more like a generally !@#$ty, not-good thing that ultimately dies with a whimper and then everyone moves on, like any number of mid-budget movies that come out over each year that you might see a trailer or two for and then never hear of again. i would call WoD a flop for me because it's easily my most forgettable expansion experience and i honestly could not be assed to even log on once i finished leveling. it's a weak expac overall and that's about it. i think of it as a flop.

in terms of financial success rather than simply "was it good or not," that's less interesting to me, but i would agree with the point that sales/subs are generally pretty predictable 14 years into this game's lifespan.

i guess i could see bfa being a flop, but i could also have probably said that early in the lead-up to every expac that has ever come out, even the good ones. i could probably make my mind up on the matter pretty quickly once it actually comes out for god's sake and the story unfolds a bit, but... it hasn't yet.
07/19/2018 08:42 PMPosted by Illidonkey
Show me on the doll where BFA hurt you


By forcing me to grind WQ and Post-End game time gated reputation.

What does the expansion even bring to the table?

Reskinned races we already have..


The races have to be unlocked. Each and every one of them through pointless, time gated reputation grinds.
Was completing the questline and achievements enough?
Was grinding from 1-110 experiencing the majority of previous expansions enough?
No that's not enough, you have to get Exatled rep
Do they give you any Tabards that let you farm exp from revered to exalted? 12,000 rep is a decent amount to get.
No
You Have to do it
not just 4 times.
But 4 more times for the other Allied races.

It seems like they're placating the hardcore players at the expense of everyone else. Oh well, at least those players have been proven to say thank you when they get served a steaming pile of ...
07/19/2018 09:06 PMPosted by Meritha
Look at the graph, please.https://imgur.com/a/v0L6E93


The graphic that shows a giant downtrend for WoD and a spike in MoP after the first patch, then a downtrend for SoO? What are you trying to show me that I didn't just say?

2012 - 2013 - MoP

2014 - WoD - large spike, big fall...first part of WoD. Not even where it ended.
07/19/2018 09:06 PMPosted by Hearne
07/19/2018 07:46 PMPosted by Elfsoldier
combine that with the dumbing down of classes with less mechanics,


How are all the classes dumbed down, and how do they have less mechanics (or abilities or whatever)?

Just looking at my BM Hunter, he has about 15 abilities, and that was just a quick count, which obviously changes slightly dependent on the talents I choose. And with the stat squish and changes to play styles/GCD/gear etc, its about the opposite of dumbed down. I have to, yknow, think about what I'm doing now.

As for the rest, why don't we wait and see how it goes before calling out that the sky is falling.

Well they also complain about baseline abilities being turned into talents when I can't think of a single example of that happening but can name several that went in the opposite direction.
Unless you count artifact abilities, but surely no one was foolish enough to believe they'd stay around post-Legion.
Pretty clear OP has no idea what they're talking about.
07/19/2018 09:12 PMPosted by Dremin
07/19/2018 09:06 PMPosted by Meritha
Look at the graph, please.https://imgur.com/a/v0L6E93


The graphic that shows a giant downtrend for WoD and a spike in MoP after the first patch, then a downtrend for SoO? What are you trying to show me that I didn't just say?

At some point in time WoD had a lot of people, then it had less people. Therfore WoW ded.
07/19/2018 09:12 PMPosted by Dremin
07/19/2018 09:06 PMPosted by Meritha
Look at the graph, please.https://imgur.com/a/v0L6E93


The graphic that shows a giant downtrend for WoD and a spike in MoP after the first patch, then a downtrend for SoO? What are you trying to show me that I didn't just say?


If you remove the spikes at launches (which you should for what should be obvious reasons), the downward trend was fairly consistent for several years. There was no true "massive sub loss" there was a "massive increase" that ordinarily did not exist. WoD spiking to 10m was the anomaly.
07/19/2018 09:16 PMPosted by Meritha
If you remove the spikes at launches (which you should for what should be obvious reasons), the downward trend was fairly consistent for several years.


Except for the fact your little graph only shows the launch of Wod. It launched in Nov '14, 4th quarter. Legion launched in 2016.

How about showing where WoD ended, if you want to make a point? Your graph doesn't even show up to the point where Blizz stopped reporting subs.
07/19/2018 09:20 PMPosted by Dremin
07/19/2018 09:16 PMPosted by Meritha
If you remove the spikes at launches (which you should for what should be obvious reasons), the downward trend was fairly consistent for several years.


Except for the fact your little graph only shows the launch of Wod. It launched in Nov '14, 4th quarter. Legion launched in 2016.

How about showing where WoD ended, if you want to make a point? Your graph doesn't even show up to the point where Blizz stopped reporting subs.


They stopped reporting before WoD ends.
And you are not very good at reading graphs.
07/19/2018 09:22 PMPosted by Rickrolling
They stopped reporting before WoD ends.And you are not very good at reading graphs


No, I'm actually spot on (google release dates). The graph ends 5 months into WoD (there's over 12 months unaccounted for, Legion released 08/16). I already said there was a drop off during SoO, which the graph shows.
07/19/2018 07:46 PMPosted by Elfsoldier
It appears most things in BFA are just a watered down version of everything we've been doing, combine that with the dumbing down of classes with less mechanics, more downtime and less talents with character progression.

Now Azerite armor is pretty much going to be the main sets of armor rather than getting new pieces is making this expansion look less and less exciting for me.


So quit?
07/19/2018 07:49 PMPosted by Shaftogar
There are reasons to complain about BfA. At a stretch they could be used to argue it will flop. But criticising a system that hasn't been released yet, using information that is completely inaccurate and therefore likely just personal speculation, is just silly.


if someone bends over on my plate to poop i don't need to be a rocket surgeon to figure out what's going to happen next.

OP is right. BFA is a watered down version of everything so far. That's what happens when you have an idiot like Ion at the helm
No, I'm actually spot on (google release dates). The graph ends 5 months into WoD. I already said there was a drop off during SoO, which the graph shows.


Why do you keep bringing up SoO. No one is talking about SoO. Last time I will try. Look at the entirety of the graph. Note that when subs started decreasing, they kept decreasing at a steady rate. Then WoD happened and there was an unnatural spike, had that spike been the size it would have been normally, then there wouldn't be any "OMG WE LOST HALF THE PLAYERS." The players we lost, we were going to lose regardless because as the graph shows, the population had been in steady decline (barring launches which I already covered) since 2010.
07/19/2018 09:16 PMPosted by Meritha
07/19/2018 09:12 PMPosted by Dremin
...

The graphic that shows a giant downtrend for WoD and a spike in MoP after the first patch, then a downtrend for SoO? What are you trying to show me that I didn't just say?


If you remove the spikes at launches (which you should for what should be obvious reasons), the downward trend was fairly consistent for several years. There was no true "massive sub loss" there was a "massive increase" that ordinarily did not exist. WoD spiking to 10m was the anomaly.

And yet, starting in May 2015 a noticeable drop in pop from which the game has never recovered, has led to consistently vacant servers throughout Legion.

I don't see a stabilizing upward trend ahead.
07/19/2018 09:34 PMPosted by Meritha
No, I'm actually spot on (google release dates). The graph ends 5 months into WoD. I already said there was a drop off during SoO, which the graph shows.


Why do you keep bringing up SoO. No one is talking about SoO. Last time I will try. Look at the entirety of the graph. Note that when subs started decreasing, they kept decreasing at a steady rate. Then WoD happened and there was an unnatural spike, had that spike been the size it would have been normally, then there wouldn't be any "OMG WE LOST HALF THE PLAYERS." The players we lost, we were going to lose regardless because as the graph shows, the population had been in steady decline (barring launches which I already covered) since 2010.


Again, you show the first part of WoD. There were over 12 months unaccounted for. You're making a claim without the info to back it up. Show me a graph that at leasts stops where Blizz stopped reporting subs, because it definitely was not March '15 (17 months before Legion). You're talking trends without the facts to back it up. I'm just repeating what the graph illustrates.

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