Hurricane Florence Update cat 5

General Discussion
The intensity of Hurricane Florence was adjusted from yesterdays forecast of 120-140mph winds, to a cat 5 130-150mph winds.

The trajectory has changed. It was forecast to hit in the middle of the North Carolina coastline. It has changed to roughly 20-30 miles north of the South Carolina/North Carolina border.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
I guess GD is where to stay informed of the weather now. Awesome.
Be safe, people. Hope your garrisons are provisioned.
I'm a little concerned tbh, I'm pretty new to my area. All it took was a week of light to moderate rain here for a freakin sinkhole to open up on a road that I use. What the heck is a hurricane gonna do?
You beat Supercell to it! He's usually the unofficial forum weather person.

That's pretty scary. I can only imagine the chaos thats going to ensue throughout the eastern Carolinas. Be safe down there folks.
Eastern Virginia here. Bracing for rain! Went out to stockpile on food and water and water was sold in few places. Got the last two 32 packs at one place.

I hope CMs keep this thread up.

Good luck everyone
DC here. Lots of flash floods and thunderstorms all around us. No rain on Monday, but then rain Tuesday through Saturday morning. The ground is already saturated from several days of rain :(

Be safe in the Carolinas and anyone else who falls in the direct path of the hurricane.
I have family out there, i hope it dont make landfall as a cat 4 or 5.
Lord have mercy.
Maryland here, nothing but rain in the last 2 days. Hope it doesn’t come here ^_^
Yay, I think it is going to pass me up. I hope so.. it has been dry and branches are already falling from my pecan trees.
I'm disappointed Florence hasn't posted in this thread lol
Sh!t.

I'm in Charleston and we were just starting to breathe a sigh of relief...
Welcome to North Carolina. We have hurricanes. That means it rains a lot and the wind blows really hard. Sometimes they kill people, but usually because they stayed somewhere they shouldn't after they were warned to leave. Usually though, it's fine. Major noise, minor mess, power outages and naked grocery store shelves; inconveniences that last anywhere from a few hours to a few weeks.

...and I'll take it over your nasty snow any day.
09/09/2018 07:29 PMPosted by Rosabelle
You beat Supercell to it! He's usually the unofficial forum weather person.

That's pretty scary. I can only imagine the chaos thats going to ensue throughout the eastern Carolinas. Be safe down there folks.


I wasn't delaying on my forum forecast. I was just noting that the forecast track significantly changed with new incoming sampling/observational data from hurricane-hunter reconnaissance flights.

Remember when Hurricane Irma was forecast to affect the Atlantic Florida coast, only for the track to jog west and Hurricane Irma affect the Florida Gulf Coast, landfalling near Naples/Fort Myers, Florida? Similarly, 3 days ago, Hurricane Florence was forecast to recurve well northward, staying off-shore of the Atlantic seaboard, with newer updated tracks now taking it directly westward to the Carolina coast.
So wait does this mean im good to go to Myrtle Beach next week. Seriously we are booked sep 16th for a week at myrtle.
09/09/2018 08:41 PMPosted by Kinkle
So wait does this mean im good to go to Myrtle Beach next week. Seriously we are booked sep 16th for a week at myrtle.


According to the National Hurricane Center, the center of the hurricane's forecast track is almost directly a beeline for Myrtle Beach. The forecast cone of uncertainty extends from near Beaufort, South Carolina (northeast of Savannah, Georgia), to just north of North Carolina's Outer Banks (including Cape Hatteras), starting as early as Thursday afternoon.

The worst of hurricane impacts should be over by September 16th, however, some forecast data, including the GFS and ECMWF forecast models indicate that the post-tropical remnants of Hurricane Florence could stall around the Mid-Atlantic coast. These remnants could bring continued high winds, flash flooding, as well as isolated tornadoes with embedded supercells that form in the spiral bands of thunderstorms around the cyclone's center.

Furthermore, if Myrtle Beach does experience a direct landfall, it will be impassable due to significant damage, especially from storm-surge flooding, and significant beach erosion due to large swells/storm surge and high winds.

Forecast information from the National Hurricane Center:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
09/09/2018 08:41 PMPosted by Kinkle
So wait does this mean im good to go to Myrtle Beach next week. Seriously we are booked sep 16th for a week at myrtle.


Time to start thinking seriously about changing your plans. It could weaken or miss you entirely. But it might not.
Fortunately the slight southward shift from this morning means it'll likely now be a non-event here in southern Virginia. Some wind, some rain, but schools won't even close as far as I can tell. The only problem will be if the European models are wrong and the American models are right. If so, it's gonna basically sit just off the coast and rain for days. And days. Which'll mean flooding like whoa.

Other than that, I'm putting away my camping stuff until the next one. Which should be in a couple of weeks, I think.
09/09/2018 08:41 PMPosted by Kinkle
So wait does this mean im good to go to Myrtle Beach next week. Seriously we are booked sep 16th for a week at myrtle.

I live in the South and hurricanes come up our butts here from the Gulf all the time so I've ridden through a LOT of them over my 50+ years. Here is what I say to your question: there is no way in hell I'd go anywhere near the projected impact area of a Cat 5 hurricane, especially right on the beach. That is the LAST place you want to be when a powerful hurricane rolls in. Even afterward the storms are immense and dangerous for a while, and if that baby holds its strength over land you will be in for a very nasty time.

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