Hurricane Florence Update cat 5

General Discussion
09/09/2018 08:50 PMPosted by Coniferous
09/09/2018 08:41 PMPosted by Kinkle
So wait does this mean im good to go to Myrtle Beach next week. Seriously we are booked sep 16th for a week at myrtle.


Time to start thinking seriously about changing your plans. It could weaken or miss you entirely. But it might not.


Hurricane Florence is forecast to make landfall on Thursday night. His time of arrival is not until Monday of the following week, which is 3 days past the day Hurricane Florence landfalls near Myrtle Beach.

However, as Florence interacts with land and also pushes up against a long-wave synoptic blocking high pressure ridge building into the Great Lakes/Northeast, the hurricane is forecast to begin slowing down--and even stall--across the Mid-Atlantic region. This will cause the storm to transition into a post-tropical cyclone, still bringing synoptic high winds as well as significant flash-flooding rainfall. This will especially be likely if the post-tropical storm ends up stalling over the region through the entire weekend.

Strong wind shear and helicity in the storm's east/northeast quadrants, northeast of the cyclone's center, could also enable mecocylone circulation with embedded supercells that form in the spiral bands of thunderstorms surrounding the cyclone's center. This could result in isolated tornadoes, especially ahead/northeast of the cyclone's center.
09/09/2018 08:41 PMPosted by Kinkle
So wait does this mean im good to go to Myrtle Beach next week. Seriously we are booked sep 16th for a week at myrtle.


I wouldn't risk it, truth be told. I'm sure if you point out to the folks you made the reservations with what's coming through, getting your money back shouldn't be TOO much of an issue.
09/09/2018 07:37 PMPosted by Babylonia
DC here. Lots of flash floods and thunderstorms all around us. No rain on Monday, but then rain Tuesday through Saturday morning. The ground is already saturated from several days of rain :(

Be safe in the Carolinas and anyone else who falls in the direct path of the hurricane.


Those flash floods were associated with an unrelated and separate post-tropical storm system. the remnants of post-Tropical Storm Gordon interacted with a stalled stationary front to produce waves of torrential rainfall.

Very high atmospheric precipitable water content, combined with high dew points of 78 degrees, as well as convective lift ahead of these two weather features helped generate significant rains, with rainfall rates as high as 3 inches per hour.

This mesoscale and synoptic pattern, including both the effects of a persistent/slow-moving stationary cold front, "ring of fire"-type active storm track for Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), and remnants of Hurricane Gordon are responsible for the flash flooding and areal/river flooding occurring from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley east into the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions.

Hurricane Florence is a separate event, as it hasn't even approached 65 Degrees West Longtitude (which is where Bermuda is, at 65 Degrees West, 32 degrees North), and it won't make landfall until Thursday afternoon.
09/09/2018 08:59 PMPosted by Verdre
09/09/2018 08:41 PMPosted by Kinkle
So wait does this mean im good to go to Myrtle Beach next week. Seriously we are booked sep 16th for a week at myrtle.


I wouldn't risk it, truth be told. I'm sure if you point out to the folks you made the reservations with what's coming through, getting your money back shouldn't be TOO much of an issue.


Honestly? Knowing what I know about these things (not alot but enough), I'd cancel now. IF it takes a direct hit, odds are there won't be anywhere to go when you get there anyway, and if it isn't a direct hit there, but is somewhere close, there are a lot of people that will be in need of housing from that area, so there won't be any alternative housing if the place you rented is damaged, etc.

IF it blows totally off course, and nothing happens in carolina, you are still better off than had you continued to plan just to have no where to go.

Yah, beach vacations in hurricane days, can be dicey on if you actually get to enjoy them. you just never know when one wants to spoil your plans, but at least you get advance notice.

better to be safe, than sorry.

eastern va chiming in. and yeah, i'm still gonna worry, I live in a very flood prone area. my grandson fished in the ditches for weeks a few years back. and caught good sized fish!
09/09/2018 09:15 PMPosted by Supercell
09/09/2018 07:37 PMPosted by Babylonia
DC here. Lots of flash floods and thunderstorms all around us. No rain on Monday, but then rain Tuesday through Saturday morning. The ground is already saturated from several days of rain :(

Be safe in the Carolinas and anyone else who falls in the direct path of the hurricane.


Those flash floods were associated with an unrelated and separate post-tropical storm system. the remnants of post-Tropical Storm Gordon interacted with a stalled stationary front to produce waves of torrential rainfall.

Very high atmospheric precipitable water content, combined with high dew points of 78 degrees, as well as convective lift ahead of these two weather features helped generate significant rains, with rainfall rates as high as 3 inches per hour.

This mesoscale and synoptic pattern, including both the effects of a persistent/slow-moving stationary cold front, "ring of fire"-type active storm track for Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs), and remnants of Hurricane Gordon are responsible for the flash flooding and areal/river flooding occurring from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley east into the Mid-Atlantic/New England regions.

Hurricane Florence is a separate event, as it hasn't even approached 65 Degrees West Longtitude (which is where Bermuda is, at 65 Degrees West, 32 degrees North), and it won't make landfall until Thursday afternoon.
This is the sexiest thing ever posted to a WoW forum.
Interestingly, in terms of the 5-day forecast storm track and expected landfall impacts, Hurricane Florence falls directly within the analog track envelopes between Hurricane Hugo (September 20, 1989) and Hurricane Isabel (September 18, 2003). Both storms occurred in Mid-September, with Hurricane Florence forecast to landfall only one week earlier than both storms.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/Hugo25thAnniversary

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/2003-Sep-18hurricane
I can't wait for it to destroy everything in it's path.
Then I get to watch the News of people crying saying " O Lord why me !!! Why us!!!!"

Then i get to yell at the TV
" because you live near the coast you Bloody moron!!"
At least the rain will cool things off for a bit.
09/09/2018 07:25 PMPosted by Amaelyn
I guess GD is where to stay informed of the weather now. Awesome.


Yeah we had Supercell for awhile. He got so in-depth with his posts.

Where’s he been I liked him

Oh he’s in this thread LOL
I have to say though here in Indiana it’s been hot as hell... which makes my factory job hell because no air conditioning

But the remnants of the last hurricane blew up here Friday and cooled everything down its amazing here

Some roads are flooding yeah but OH WELL
09/09/2018 10:01 PMPosted by Maeker
I can't wait for it to destroy everything in it's path.
Then I get to watch the News of people crying saying " O Lord why me !!! Why us!!!!"

Then i get to yell at the TV
" because you live near the coast you Bloody moron!!"


Honestly sir, screw you. Don't hope for destruction. Nobody lives somewhere immune to natural disasters, its not just those of us on the coast. I don't cackle at the TV when its the height of tornado season. Or blizzard season.

This really is nothing to be snarky about. Cat 5 Hurricanes don't just knock down the beach house, they wipe away the beach entirely.
Thank you for sharing this info and my hopes is that everyone affected by this storm comes out on the other side with little to no harm.
09/09/2018 10:01 PMPosted by Maeker
I can't wait for it to destroy everything in it's path.
Then I get to watch the News of people crying saying " O Lord why me !!! Why us!!!!"

Then i get to yell at the TV
" because you live near the coast you Bloody moron!!"


You sir/madam, really should delete your post. Your jealousy of those living near the coast is unbecoming.
09/09/2018 07:49 PMPosted by Virus
I'm disappointed Florence hasn't posted in this thread lol

Same!
09/09/2018 10:06 PMPosted by Persephoneo
I have to say though here in Indiana it’s been hot as hell... which makes my factory job hell because no air conditioning

But the remnants of the last hurricane blew up here Friday and cooled everything down its amazing here

Some roads are flooding yeah but OH WELL


you should look up the statistics on deaths due to flooding. Maybe then you might take that a bit more serious. I could give you numbers, but you should see them for yourself, with the info that comes with them.
This is reason why Balance druids should never have hurricane spell >.>
09/09/2018 10:01 PMPosted by Supercell
Interestingly, in terms of the 5-day forecast storm track and expected landfall impacts, Hurricane Florence falls directly within the analog track envelopes between Hurricane Hugo (September 20, 1989) and Hurricane Isabel (September 18, 2003). Both storms occurred in Mid-September, with Hurricane Florence forecast to landfall only one week earlier than both storms.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/Hugo25thAnniversary

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/2003-Sep-18hurricane


I have a bad feeling about this storm, and seeing what it's like in comparison to Isabel, makes me realize why I feel like I do. Isabel was a total wreck around the area I'm in, (eastern va), and where I lived, we were without power for 5 plus days, some folks for a month. I'm now living in the upwards of a month area, so yeah not boding well for me here.

Plus, like with Isabel, we have had a lot of rain lately, meaning ground is saturated, so trees will again be an issue in the winds, which is where most of our damage from Isabel came from.
09/10/2018 01:43 PMPosted by Ghaghzull
This is reason why Balance druids should never have hurricane spell >.>


Lol

I actually miss Hurricane :)
It's likely going to be Hugo on steroids from the looks of it.
09/09/2018 09:15 PMPosted by Supercell
Very high atmospheric precipitable water content, combined with high dew points of 78 degrees, as well as convective lift ahead of these two weather features helped generate significant rains, with rainfall rates as high as 3 inches per hour.

mmmmm I could read this all day long.

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