Interesting Metric

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I always wondered why players were so concerned with subscription numbers.

Is it just some arbitrary way to claim that the game is dying, for no reason other than to make such a claim in another way?

Do you depend on some arbitrary popularity mark to enjoy the game yourself?
09/18/2018 02:03 PMPosted by Hamstar
09/17/2018 07:05 PMPosted by Merridae
From end of July 2018 to today the WoW Token price has dropped by half.
Make of that metric what you will but it tells me that such a steep decline in such a short timeframe is not a good thing.

I made 200k+ a month doing nothing in Legion. Gold is now more valuable vs. tokens.

Doing "nothing"? Did you have a special mission board setup unlike anyone else's where you didn't need order resources to run missions?

09/18/2018 02:22 PMPosted by Demonpowers
I always wondered why players were so concerned with subscription numbers.

Is it just some arbitrary way to claim that the game is dying, for no reason other than to make such a claim in another way?

Do you depend on some arbitrary popularity mark to enjoy the game yourself?

And I always wonder why players are trying to play down sub numbers when they apparently drop. In your opinion it would not be a bad thing if subscriptions were to drop to a fraction of what they were at the end of Legion?

Are you aware this is a business that needs to continue to earn profits to stay in business?
09/17/2018 07:05 PMPosted by Merridae
Then something noticeable happens around end of July 2018 the price begins to trend downward. It is not a slight slope either. It is a drastic slope. Looking at the entire history there is nothing like this decline anywhere along that timeline.

That would be about the time 8.0.1 went live when Blizzard shut off the gold taps they had flowing through the Legion class halls.
09/17/2018 07:05 PMPosted by Merridae
I suggest a different metric to at least get a ballpark idea of the state of the game.

Every time I see one of these kinds of posts I have to wonder why it matters.

I see players in the world all day every day (by that I mean...any time I log in no matter what day or what time of day it may be; with the odd exception of middle of the night log ins). I have fun every time I log in. I have friends to talk to and do things with if I want to group for content.

Some areas are more populated than others, but I've yet to log in and not see anyone no matter where I choose to go.

The only "metric" that you should be worried about is "am I (meaning you) having fun, personally". Do YOU find reason to log in? Do YOU enjoy your time spent on Azeroth? Do YOU find the entertainment to be worth what you pay for it (be that money or time)?

Blizzard is obviously making enough money to continue to make new content. Some great, some meh, some somewhere in between...but there is always something for everyone.

Why does it matter to you what metric is used? Unless you're buying stock YOU are the only "metric" that matters.
09/18/2018 02:22 PMPosted by Æx
09/18/2018 01:40 PMPosted by Ythisens
This means that more people are buying the Tokens with real money faster than those buying the token with gold. Thus causing the price to fall. It unfortunately means a little less gold for your token, but the market dictates that is how much it's worth at the moment. Lot's of gold is moving around as its still the start of an expansion. It's pretty normal.


So, it makes sense now that tokens are way easier to get with gold, more people are buying them with real money?

I'm sorry, but I can't see the correlation here, especially when we are already a month later within the expansion.


You realize there is a limit on how many tokens people can buy per week - someone who wanted to purchase that ah via buying tokens for gold had to do it over a month or so, they couldn't do it all in one week.
09/18/2018 01:40 PMPosted by Ythisens
09/17/2018 07:05 PMPosted by Merridae
From end of July 2018 to today the WoW Token price has dropped by half.
Make of that metric what you will but it tells me that such a steep decline in such a short timeframe is not a good thing.


This means that more people are buying the Tokens with real money faster than those buying the token with gold. Thus causing the price to fall. It unfortunately means a little less gold for your token, but the market dictates that is how much it's worth at the moment. Lot's of gold is moving around as its still the start of an expansion. It's pretty normal.

In fact it means the opposite of what you're proposing, its good for WoW as a whole because it means people are buying plenty of tokens to sell for gold. Slightly negative for token sellers if anything.

I totally see the point you're making though, in that it implies less people are buying tokens with gold. Which isn't necessarily the truth but rather the value of those selling them for gold has drastically changed causing the price to fall.


Ah!

Thank you for the inside info ;-)
09/17/2018 07:05 PMPosted by Merridae
From end of July 2018 to today the WoW Token price has dropped by half.
Make of that metric what you will but it tells me that such a steep decline in such a short timeframe is not a good thing.

All that means is that people with extra cash saw the high amount of gold and flocked to the shop to buy up tokens to sell. They "flooded" the market, thus dropping the gold price.

Unless you have some proof other than some "conspiracy theory" of anything other than normal "market demand" to explain the fluctuation in Token prices (both from low to high and from high to low) you have zero reason to think it's either good or bad...it's neither. It is nothing more than "supply and demand".

This is basic economics. It's not a government conspiracy.
09/18/2018 01:57 PMPosted by Ythisens
Can we call this the longboi effect?


That thing cost $1k USD if you just bought wow Tokens lmao, Blizz is laughing all the way to the bank.
I like to cherry pick data to fit my narrative. So does the OP. You can't possibly use 1 single statistic to determine the state of the game when people were buying tokens to buy game time, buy expansions, buy destiny, buy CoD, buy Blizzcon tickets. All of that is done and over with. Until the next big thing comes back out to spend Blizz balance on, then we are just going to hold onto it.

4 pages of tin foil hat discussions. And it isn't even Sunday.
09/18/2018 01:42 PMPosted by Crepe
09/18/2018 01:40 PMPosted by Ythisens
I totally see the point you're making though, in that it implies less people are buying tokens with gold. Which isn't necessarily the truth but rather the value of those selling them for gold has drastically changed causing the price to fall.


And I think there's more to the equation than A + B = C.

It's very hard to imply or interpret player interest through a single point of data.


You guys do realize the laws of supply and demand do not work 100% the same way with regards to virtual currencies right?
09/18/2018 02:29 PMPosted by Cruxious
09/18/2018 01:57 PMPosted by Ythisens
Can we call this the longboi effect?

That thing cost $1k USD if you just bought wow Tokens lmao, Blizz is laughing all the way to the bank.

Hardly anyone bought it with real money. People who bought it already had the gold in their bank, with nothing really to spend it on. They bought it for its auction house functionality, not to impress people that they could spend lots of dollars on a mount.

And in any case, it's more impressive that someone earned 5 million gold through in-game activities than purchased it with $1000 in real money.

09/18/2018 02:47 PMPosted by Halen
I like to cherry pick data to fit my narrative. So does the OP. You can't possibly use 1 single statistic to determine the state of the game when people were buying tokens to buy game time, buy expansions, buy destiny, buy CoD, buy Blizzcon tickets. All of that is done and over with. Until the next big thing comes back out to spend Blizz balance on, then we are just going to hold onto it.

4 pages of tin foil hat discussions. And it isn't even Sunday.

You can say that. People can say a lot of things. The OP thought it was an interesting observation and attempted to make some sense of it. Other people have drawn other conclusions.

You have not. You're just here to make a meaningless false claim that the OP said something that she didn't in order to deflect, deflect, deflect.
09/18/2018 02:22 PMPosted by Demonpowers
I always wondered why players were so concerned with subscription numbers.

Is it just some arbitrary way to claim that the game is dying, for no reason other than to make such a claim in another way?

Do you depend on some arbitrary popularity mark to enjoy the game yourself?


People want to feel that their grievances are justified. An easy way is to look at the only way players really interact with the bottom line and go 'Well what you're doing isn't working, so listen to me' It doesn't really work, but I can understand why they do it.
You can’t use token as a method to gauge population because you can’t know how many tokens each player buys In a given time. If Blizzard sold 10 tokens per week it would fallacy to assume there are 10 different players buying those tokens.
All of this assuming that the WoW token price is, in fact, determined by supply and demand. ..Which, until Blizzard actually shows us their algorithm, I'm not at all convinced of.

I mean, what better way to try and coax people back into your new expansion, than by making it easier and easier to do it with ingame currency?

And as long as someone is still buying tokens to sell, Blizzard gets paid just the same.
09/18/2018 02:22 PMPosted by Goblinoffyre
And I always wonder why players are trying to play down sub numbers when they apparently drop. In your opinion it would not be a bad thing if subscriptions were to drop to a fraction of what they were at the end of Legion?

Are you aware this is a business that needs to continue to earn profits to stay in business?


Would I notice if say, 1/2 of the playerbase disappeared overnight? Probably not.

I'd still see people in CRZ, I'd still see group finder being just as active to me with 50% of the player base. A big sub drop wouldn't change how I perceive the game as a player, so why would it matter to me?

As for the business side of things. That doesn't matter to me as well, because I'm not a big shareholder. But WoW's competitors are still in business with a fraction of their subscribers. So something tells me that even if there was a big spike in sub loss, WoW would still be putting out content.

As a player, why should subscription numbers matter to me? Why do they matter to you?

I played this game through WoD, when subs were at an all time low. So low, that they stopped reporting them, and they still put out Legion.
Im guessing people bought more tokens for the BoP gear and expensive flasks for raiding. By the end of legion ppl didnt need gold.

If anything..I think blizzard is creating a mats crunch to make more money.

The guild im in is large with lots of active ppl and getting the mats for cauldrons is tough. Smaller less active guilds are prob SOL.

I feel like blizz is squezzing its base for money and it really annoys me. This is a sub game, not free to play
You can use a token that you buy with WoW Gold on literally any Blizzard product or service. Therefore, when token prices are high, there are more people wanting to use their gold on things other than in-game purchases, and prices escalate. Prices escalated for some time steadily both because WoW Gold was plentiful since the advent of Garrisons and Legion mission tables so people didn't need to buy it. So people would rather spend their plentiful gold and buy, say, game time, or Blizzcon tickets, or character transfers.

The only thing that you can do with a token you buy with cash is sell it for WoW gold, it can't be used on any other Blizzard product. The first real reversal of the trend of dumping plentiful gold into other products and services that we've had in a long time came about with the launch of BFA, where you need gold again. You don't have gold rained on you in the game, and there are a lot of things to buy from goldsinks large and small.

That's the only metric. How much in demand WoW gold is. And if token prices are down, WoW gold is actually more in demand than before.
09/18/2018 06:10 AMPosted by Merridae
09/18/2018 06:06 AMPosted by Mvura
but as something on the shareholder report?


Who said anything about shareholders? Not me certainly. My position is that it is indicative of a sudden downtrend in interest in the game itself.


Disagree.

The drop in price is because more people want to pay $20 to buy gold than people want to pay gold to buy their subscription.

This indicates to me a higher interest in people wanting gold in-game and willing to shell out real life money for it.

Before more people wanted to avoid paying real money for their subs, and gold in game was easy to get from mission tables. So the price in gold goes up.

So there are three major factors that explain the drop.

1. The taps have turned off. I cannot make 10k gold per character per day anymore just doing missions.

2. There is a huge gold sink mount worth 5M gold that people want, but are attempting to buy with real money.

3. There are tons of 355 BoEs of all varieties that people might buy gold via token in order to buy off the AH.

Items two and three are the major gold spends driving the increase in tokens being bought with real money.

Item 1 is driving the decrease in people paying gold for their subs.

I'm not sure if the amount of tokens being sold is available anywhere but I would guess that more people are spending $20 now than at any point in the life of the token. Whereas previously it was always weighted towards the people that already had gold wanting to not pay real money.

TL;DR Whales want to buy Longboi

09/18/2018 01:57 PMPosted by Ythisens
09/18/2018 01:46 PMPosted by Neall
I had assumed everyone bought up the tokens to sell so they could buy their longbois and thus flooded the market with too many tokens

Can we call this the longboi effect?
Is this a troll post? If the token price really was a metric to show how well the game is doing, all Blizzard has to do is make some 10k gold missions and 5k WQs every 4 hours and they can brag about how the token price hit 1m gold in a shareholder meeting. LOL
Blizzard obviously intended to deflate the economy and it is working. I enjoyed making 1m+ gold a month in legion doing absolutely nothing except sending missions twice a day but let's face it... It was not a healthy game design and inflated the token price for no reason.

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