I'm done with shield wearing tanks.

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It feels so bad when you disenchant an item your teammate wants because you can't trade it due to ilvl. So stupid.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
09/27/2018 09:13 AMPosted by Dragonyx
Since it's personal loot, I have to be selected for loot (6 out of 28) on that one specific boss, and then I have to get the specific item out of the boss (1 out of 3) I believe. So my odds of getting a shield are 5%. The odds with master loot, assuming 4 drops instead of 6 would be 36% (11 drop options on the boss so (1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)). That's where my seemingly "bad luck" is coming from. I am 7 times less likely to get a shield in a raid with personal loot instead of group/master loot.


To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.
In the case, the system is bugged somewhere, just like how the legendary system was bugged in Legion.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
09/27/2018 09:13 AMPosted by Dragonyx
Since it's personal loot, I have to be selected for loot (6 out of 28) on that one specific boss, and then I have to get the specific item out of the boss (1 out of 3) I believe. So my odds of getting a shield are 5%. The odds with master loot, assuming 4 drops instead of 6 would be 36% (11 drop options on the boss so (1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)). That's where my seemingly "bad luck" is coming from. I am 7 times less likely to get a shield in a raid with personal loot instead of group/master loot.


To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


To be clear as well: this doesn't change a thing. I totally know where the OP comes from. Getting a weapon has never been harder, and at a point I began to wonder if shields could actually drop.
<span class="truncated">...</span>

To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


This is just flat out wrong. It USED to work this way but was changed to select X players based on raid size. Straight from the 6.2 patch notes:

[quote]Rather than treating loot chances independently for each player—sometimes yielding only one or even zero items for a group—we’ll use a system similar to Group Loot to determine how many items a boss will award based on eligible group size. As a result, groups will receive a much more predictable number of drops when they defeat a boss. We're also increasing the overall rate of reward for Personal Loot, giving players more items overall to offset the fact that Personal Loot rewards can’t be distributed among group members.


Wow...that's one of the best rebuttals I've seen on here.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


I think what may help would be a c;ear explanation of exactly how personal loot works. With some examples. That I think may clear up issues like this. Because what he said I have observed too. Forget getting a shield if you are a Paladin, Warrior or even a Shaman.
the issue is just really *I NEED A SHIELD*
how about addressing that miss or mister blue
09/27/2018 12:32 PMPosted by Prime
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
...

To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


But is his math wrong in the end? Do you have any other comments to add on the topic?

This is just one example of MANY as to why forced personal loot for guilds is a horrible change.


His math is wrong. It is based on the idea that exactly 6 items drop for 28 people. That means he starts with the knowledge that exactly 21.4% of his raid gets loot off a boss, and thus, he has a 21.4% chance of getting loot, since he just needs to "roll" into that group of 6. If the drop chance on Personal Loot is literally any value other than 21.4%, he math is wrong.

For instance, if he has a 40% chance to get loot and has a 1 in 3 chance to get the shield he wants, he does not have a 5% chance at the shield, he has a 13.3% chance at the shield. To have a 5% chance at the shield, it would be required to have a 15% chance for Personal Loot to drop. So even his math using his assumptions is wrong, since it would be a 21.4% chance to get 1 in 3 items, making it roughly a 7.1% chance at the shield. Even using his math, his math is wrong.

Additionally, his use of probability is incorrect as well. If 4 items drop out of a possible 11, and there is 1 shield in those 11, then he has a (1-(1/11))^4 of not getting it, or a 68.3% chance of not getting it, which means that his chances of actually getting it are approximately 31.7%, not 36% as stated.

So, yes. His math is wrong. To answer your question.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore

To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


While Lore is correct, and that is not how personal loot works - it is still, I would imagine, a close approximation.

Roughly 1/5 chance of getting a drop. Then another 1/3 chance of getting loot you want - so 1/15 of getting the shield. 6.67% chance of the shield.

Even if it was 1/3 chance of a person getting loot - getting the shield would still only be an 11.11% chance of dropping for me.

The fact that some specs have less of a chance of getting geared is an issue I have with Personal Loot. My raid team is predominately leather. Just how it worked out this expansion / this time. Bring the player not the class right?

Well they are more likely to get geared more quickly as they are able to swap loot around while the 1 dk 2 warriors and 1 paladin are less likely. God help our 2 -3 hunters - the only mail wearers in the group.

Master Loot was a tool, and made the drops equally likely and encouraged people playing off specs. I won't change my loot specialization from Prot to Arms / Fury unless I know there is literally nothing I want from a boss as prot. Even if I need it to titanforge that is something I could use to better the raid. It means my offspecs aren't going to be as geared.

Our fury warrior - he tanked from time to time in Legion. The chances of him getting a good shield in raid or M+ - almost non existent now because he will almost certainly always have DPS as his loot specialization.

That aside, it is terrible to get an item I won't use because it is poorly itemized for me and not an upgrade. But, since it is an ilvl upgrade I can't trade it away to someone who will actually use it. Rings and trinkets are prime examples of this (but this isn't just limited to rings / trinkets). Since they often don't have main stats (rings never do) if the secondary stats aren't good then they can easily not be upgrades.

Why are all guilds being punished for the abuse of ML that a few guilds may (or may not) have done. This is an extremely heavy handed approach that a significant portion (I hesitate to say large / majority as I don't have the numbers but I can almost guarantee that high end raiding guilds have issues with forced Personal Loot)

<Snip>
So, yes. His math is wrong. To answer your question.


Yes his math is wrong, but still demonstrates a large difference in the probability of getting the specific item based on loot styles.

It is roughly 1/5 chance of getting a personal loot drop from my observations. Small sample size, so data could be off.

If there are three drops I Can get after I get an item it is roughly 1/3 ( assumption - All items have an equal drop chance. Some could be weighted. Don't know.)

So roughly 1/15 ( 6.667%) With wide assumptions. Even if the margin of error is very high and the actual chance was closer to 20% then it is still lower than the Master Loot option of ~31%
09/27/2018 01:04 PMPosted by Forums
09/27/2018 12:35 PMPosted by Soulprison
Sorry for the cynicism, but I find this very hard to believe. This would lead one to believe they are the unluckiest person ever. The only reason I have raid gear is because I have been given it. In 2 weeks in Uldir I have looted 1 item and it wasnt an upgrade.
Random numbers are just that... random.


"random" nothing is random. If you have noticed the loot you have been getting is not random. I assure you.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.
And the more people you 'share' loot with, the more likely you are to get the desired loot, since they can share it with you.

Classes/Roles that are at a massive disadvantage early on with Personal Loot (due to sharable loot):
    BM/Marks Hunters - Ranged Weapons on exclusive to two specs
    Prot Paladin/Warrior - Shields are exclusive to two specs
    Hunters/Shaman - Mail armor is exclusive to two classes

We can actually see this play out in M+ very well, where personal loot has been effectively enforced since its inception. Groups that run with all leather or all plate are able to share gear more effectively, and can gear the entire group much faster than groups that run with a mix of gear.
You can run M+ as many times as you want. I don't remember of the top of my head, by I think 5 out of 10 of them drop shields. Groups are usually waiting for tanks for hours. If this scarcity encourages geared tanks to farm M+ instances and help other people to complete their M+ stones, then it seems more like a feature than a bug. It's scarcity which encourages cooperation. This is how this game is supposed to work.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


Didn't master loot drop items regardless of players/spec? It was dictated by size of raid.

PL makes it harder to obtain items.

Let's assume shield.

You need essentially a pally, warrior, or shaman each with a specific loot spec selected with a chance of shield. Then for them to have higher ilvl in that slot. As the only way to "game" the odds.

It could just be perception.

Still it feels like the odds where better when the boss could just drop a shield as one of its loot table items, as opposed to, when the game determines I get loot, then 1:y among loot table based on spec.
>.> I love how this too was pointed out before launch and many fought in favor of the change of personal loot...
Classes/Roles that are at a massive disadvantage early on with Personal Loot (due to sharable loot):
    BM/Marks Hunters - Ranged Weapons on exclusive to two specs
    Prot Paladin/Warrior - Shields are exclusive to two specs
    Hunters/Shaman - Mail armor is exclusive to two classes


dont get me wrong i get the problem or to be honest: both problems.

But are we ignoring the fact that all shields have int AND str on them for a reason? its prot warri/pala, holy pala and resto and elemental shaman who CAN get the shields.

again: i do not try to undermine anything what has been said. it just seems that nobody is aware of that.

EDIT: fixed some formatting
It could be worse pretty sure there want 3 specs that use agi polearms so odds are far less. On another note personal loot is killing me right now when I get a drop it's for a slot I already have good gear in or it's a very minor side grade. Otherwise no loot drops was one of the highest ilevel in the guild at one point for a our prog runs now I'm at the bottom cause of how bad my luck has been
I'm a die hard raider. It would be take much more than forced personal loot for me to stop raiding at the highest level I'm able because of this, but god damn, I'd be a outright liar if I said personal loot isn't making my raiding experience miserable.

A trial who died at phase 1 in taloc mythic got the bis weapon whereas the three plate dps raiders are stuck with the !@#$ty mythax 2h sword. It's disgusting, people getting loot they SHOULD NOT.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
09/27/2018 09:13 AMPosted by Dragonyx
Since it's personal loot, I have to be selected for loot (6 out of 28) on that one specific boss, and then I have to get the specific item out of the boss (1 out of 3) I believe. So my odds of getting a shield are 5%. The odds with master loot, assuming 4 drops instead of 6 would be 36% (11 drop options on the boss so (1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)). That's where my seemingly "bad luck" is coming from. I am 7 times less likely to get a shield in a raid with personal loot instead of group/master loot.


To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


That is NOT how it works, and hasn't been since 6.2. In Highmaul, it really was an independent chance, but that lead to situations where people killed bosses and, quite randomly, no one got anything from the boss. So the devs changed it such that the each person added a certain fractional number of items to the boss (at the time, it was 0.3, might be different now), and you got however many whole number of items that added up to, plus a percentage chance of an extra item equal to remaining decimals.

Example, if you had 15 people, that's 15 * 0.3 = 4.5, so you'd get 4 items and have a 50% chance of a 5th. Once the game rolled for how many you got, it then rolled for who got them, and then rolled for which item each of those people got off their personal loot tables. The net effect is the same, you still get an average of 0.3 items per person (same average if each person had an independent 30% chance to get a drop), but the swing in drops is much much lower.

They literally made a freakin' watercooler on it: https://worldofwarcraft.com/en-us/news/19162236

First, rather than treating loot chances independently for each player—sometimes yielding only one or even zero items for a group—we’ll use a system similar to Group Loot to determine how many items a boss will award based on eligible group size. As a result, groups will receive a much more predictable number of drops when they defeat a boss. In addition, set items will reliably drop in Personal Loot, just like they do in Group Loot today. The end result is that groups using Personal Loot will acquire their 2- and 4-piece set bonuses at around the same time as groups using Group Loot acquire theirs.

We’re also increasing the overall rate of reward for Personal Loot, giving players more items overall to offset the fact that Personal Loot rewards can’t be distributed among group members. We know that finding that one awesome specific trinket to round out your gear set can be difficult with Personal Loot, and this should help increase your odds.
09/27/2018 12:24 PMPosted by Lore
09/27/2018 09:13 AMPosted by Dragonyx
Since it's personal loot, I have to be selected for loot (6 out of 28) on that one specific boss, and then I have to get the specific item out of the boss (1 out of 3) I believe. So my odds of getting a shield are 5%. The odds with master loot, assuming 4 drops instead of 6 would be 36% (11 drop options on the boss so (1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)+(1/11)). That's where my seemingly "bad luck" is coming from. I am 7 times less likely to get a shield in a raid with personal loot instead of group/master loot.


To be clear: that is not how personal loot works. Everyone in the raid has their own individual chance to receive loot, regardless of how many people are there.


To be clear, you have no idea what he’s trying to say. If you’re targeting a piece of gear personal loot is terrible. When there’s a chance for the piece to drop on it’s own, you have a higher chance of the piece dropping because the chance is not spec/class specific.

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