Activision Blizzard falls 10 percent after reporting decline in monthly active users

General Discussion
It was a decline in users for King Entertainment titles.

Blizzard's MAUs stayed the same as last quarter - 37 million monthly active users. Across all their titles.
Taking into account that Activision-Blizzard's Knee-jerk reaction to any under-performance (or anything perceived to be) is "More Monetization" and how this model is now proving to not only be unsustainable, but now ineffective...it's honestly shocking to see the company unwillingness/inability to adapt.

The correct course of action for the company would be to focus on shipping QUALITY products with the goal of Audience Acquisition and Retention, since you can't profit from Monetization if people are unwilling to play your game longer than a month because it is garbage. Diablo Immortal, which may well be successful and bring in a steady stream of revenue from China, is unlikely to succeed in the west. Call of Duty Black Ops 4, with its lack of offline Single-Player Content, already drove up to 20% of its 1st and 2nd wave of buyers away and has little in the way of depth to encourage people to keep playing (along with an unrewarding "progression" system in its Not!Battle Pass).

The only upside is that BfA looks to be getting somewhere on the right track, but only after it undid a lot of the good Legion did for WoW (Legion stabilized the declining sub numbers due to it being higher in both quality, and quantity, compared to the previous expansion).
It was a decline in users for King Entertainment titles.

Blizzard's MAUs stayed the same as last quarter - 37 million monthly active users. Across all their titles.


This is what would make me concerned if I was running Blizz.... releasing a brand new xpac and no increase....only xpac sales but no new or increase MAU.
From what I've read, the stock drop is primarily attributed to lower than expected guidance for next quarter.

What we focus on here and what investors focus on out there? Are very different things.
Candy Crush is dying y'all! Too much RNG!
oh no!!! we are all doomed
You also have stories like this from the Washington Post, dated Nov. 5th.

"Hearthstone basks in the glow of 100 million users, awaits it's next challenge."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/11/05/hearthstone-basks-glow-million-users-awaits-its-next-challenge/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7a28dfd8da12

Sounds to me like it's a good time to buy stock.
As much as I am disappointed with the direction that WOW has been taking, that does not mean the company overall is headed for trouble. WOW is one product of many. Heck, they could probably just get rid of WOW completely and still do OK.

If you want to complain about WOW specifically, fine. But if you start talking about the future of the company as a whole, that is another matter entirely.

As far as WOW goes however, there can still be cherry picking. And earning reports try to say nice things without actually lying. Record 1st day sales of BFA sounds a bit puzzling giving how a lot of people have soured on BFA. But I assume record 1st day sales includes the pre-purchase stuff, so the company may have been trying to get record "1st days sales". What's important now of course is how many people bought BFA overall, and how many people are still playing.

But even with all of that, I think there are enough die hard players that the company can put out a new expansion of WOW every couple of years and rake in some good money from it, and not have to invest too much in WOW itself. They probably want to spend the bulk of their development money on other stuff that they would see as possible growth markets. I don't think anybody would say that WOW is a potential growth market. It's a cash cow, which you use to fund other stuff.
I highly recommend buying this dip. I just bought my first shares of ATVI and, much like Activision, I'm seeing dollar signs in the long-term future. Say what you will about Diablo Immortal, but bringing Blizzard-quality mobile games to the Asian market will be profitable.

It's sad that ActiBlizz made a move strictly for the profits and not for the Diablo fanbase, but it doesn't have to be all bad. There is water in the cup half-empty.
From what I've read, the stock drop is primarily attributed to lower than expected guidance for next quarter.

What we focus on here and what investors focus on out there? Are very different things.


The primary driver and indicator that Blizz/Act uses is MAU (Monthly Active Users), the drop is attributed to the 10% loss. The most worrying factor in the investment circles is the lack of increase in MAU after a xpac release. In other words, you put a new product out and get no return or increment, except for the initial sales.

If there is no growth in MAU then the product is stagnant or deteriorating. In addition this has been a trend for the last couple of quarters in Blizz products, if you read the filings and full report you can see the drop. Granted this is not all WoW but without a doubt WoW is a portion of it.

Last but not least contrary to some comments, I am not saying the "sky is falling", or WoW is doomed. What I am saying is that there is real issues at Blizz/Act, and I expect a house cleaning and some fairly significant changes in product development especially if 4th qtr has the same or worse returns. Nothing drives change more than loss.
Maybe they should have opened a Casino and Theme Park instead
11/11/2018 06:31 AMPosted by Taunthis
The primary driver and indicator that Blizz/Act uses is MAU (Monthly Active Users), the drop is attributed to the 10% loss. The most worrying factor in the investment circles is the lack of increase in MAU after a xpac release. In other words, you put a new product out and get no return or increment, except for the initial sales.


Yes but the stable 37 million MAU was in total for all Blizzard games.

Your assuming there wasn't any MAU losses in the other games Blizzard puts out.
Ive currently gone back to GW2 and FF14 and splitting my time there for awhile. I was enjoying wow, and still am, but I am not blind and see that the direction is going very bad
Mooooo
11/11/2018 07:10 AMPosted by Worldwarborn
Ive currently gone back to GW2 and FF14 and splitting my time there for awhile. I was enjoying wow, and still am, but I am not blind and see that the direction is going very bad


Good bye, Good Riddance, Please take the other whiners with you.
11/11/2018 04:06 AMPosted by Bluspacecow
It was a decline in users for King Entertainment titles.

Blizzard's MAUs stayed the same as last quarter - 37 million monthly active users. Across all their titles.


So BFA didn't attract any players who werent already here? Not even enough returning players to give it a boost? That's cause for concern in my eyes.
wait i thought it was because mobile Diablo? i cant keep up with this made up crap
11/11/2018 02:03 AMPosted by Taunthis
The title says it all.....

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/08/activision-blizzard-shares-fall-10-percent-after-reporting-decline-in-monthly-active-users.html


But remember, you don't know what you want, but don't you have a mobile phone?
Meanwhile everyone ignores valuation metrics.
If this isn't enough for Activision to be given the boot by share holders and let Blizzard run the show without having to tow a sinking ship, then nothing will change.

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