Why my friend is unsubbing.

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11/07/2018 06:01 PMPosted by Taironn
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The chance is always going to be 10%. The more you do it, the more chances you'll have...but it will always be 10%. You could get something on the first try, or you could never see it.


And what are the chances he doesnt have it yet? 10%? No, and that is his problem.

Its not that the drop rate is garbage, its that the odds of him NOT having it by now are astronomical.


Astronomical? No. Most dungeons drop around 10 pieces of loot for each armor class. Only 6 of the 10 dungeons drop a ranged weapon, and in those dungeons, it's a 10% drop rate item in M+.

Since 370 base only drops in 10 or higher, we can discount every dungeon the "Friend" has run below that as not counting. So let's just count +10s or higher ONLY.

So here's the math:

Successful completion: 2 in 5 chance of loot. Completion in time: 3 in 5 chance.

Chance that loot is the ranged weapon and not something else: 1 in 10.

To keep it simple, let's just assume they aren't making the timer in their +10s, so there's a 40% chance of getting loot, which has a 10% chance of being a ranged weapon, in the 60% of the dungeons that drop the bow.

So total probability of the bow dropping in random +10 is 4% if you only target the 6 dungeons that drop bows. Less if you do dungeons at random.

So let's assume that mr "friend" is spamming +10s of the 6 dungeons that drop ranged weapons (Motherlode, Freehold, King's Rest, Atal'Dazar, Tol Dagor and Temple of Seth)

So here's the math for your friend's chances:

Probability of success: 4%
# of trials: 20

Probability of getting at least 1 ranged weapon in 20 attempts (That is, 20 completed M+10 dungeons, all of which have a ranged weapon on their loot table): 56%

If he's only done 5 M+10s, then his probability of at least 1 ranged weapon is: 18%

https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/calculators/binomial-distribution-calculator/

But I think everyone here is aware that he's probably done less than 5, because people clearing +10s regularly don't come into GD complaining about loot RNG.
I wanted a shield for my paladin, so i farmed for 4 weeks, and got...none

Then, last week, i got 8 shields from mythic+, arenas and uldir in heroic and normal. And as a bonus, on this week mythic+ chest.....you guess it, another...shield. Thanks Blizzzzzarrrrrddddd.

But this its how RNG works. If you want a 370 weapon, just do content. The more the better.
Get conquest rewards, no RNG involved.
<-
Still have the same bow i bought off the AH, when i hit 120.

It's Depressing
...Your odds over the lifetime of attempts is 'increased' in that the more you do it the more 'chances' you get, yes.
dont expect some to comprehend that.


No, no it doesn't increase. 10% means that you have a 1 in 10 chance EACH time to get the drop. Whether you do it 1 time or 100 times, that probability is still going to be 10%.

On AVERAGE, you should be able obtain the item in 10 tries. That being said, you are not guaranteed to get the item in 10 tries, you could be unlucky and hit that 90% fail chance every time.

But yeah, not having a weapon feels bad.


That is exactly what they just said lol. You are more likely to have had something drop if you’ve done it multiple times. Flipping 2 coins is a better chance at getting a heads than 1 coin. Nobody actually thinks the odds of the next coin flip is 100% heads, ever.
11/07/2018 05:37 PMPosted by Taironn
11/07/2018 05:29 PMPosted by Aewendil
It's not the GM's fault you don't understand the gambler's fallacy, which applies to any event with a probability between 0 and 1.


Are you trying to tell me that doing a thing with a ten percent chance ten times doesnt increase my odds?

Yes, that is what you are being told. Every time that boss is taken down, it is exactly the same chance...and more importantly, the drop rate isn't even 10%. I've looked up the `Bow of Virulent Infection' in two places, and both sites suggest the drop rate is only 1%. Which means your friend will only have one chance in a hundred of getting it, each and every time he tries for it.

Wish him luck for me.
All 3 emissaries are weapons right now. And try weekly warfront when it's your factions turn.
11/08/2018 03:37 AMPosted by Leyami
11/07/2018 05:37 PMPosted by Taironn
...

Are you trying to tell me that doing a thing with a ten percent chance ten times doesnt increase my odds?

Yes, that is what you are being told. Every time that boss is taken down, it is exactly the same chance...and more importantly, the drop rate isn't even 10%. I've looked up the `Bow of Virulent Infection' in two places, and both sites suggest the drop rate is only 1%. Which means your friend will only have one chance in a hundred of getting it, each and every time he tries for it.

Wish him luck for me.


Doesn’t increase the drop chance. But it does increase his chance at having it.
11/08/2018 03:44 AMPosted by Magic
Doesn’t increase the drop chance. But it does increase his chance at having it.

Yeah I don't really get how people don't understand this. Though the drop chance is always the same for each individual attempt, you are more likely to have received it the more you do it.

The fact that your friend hasn't gotten anything yet sucks and is highly improbable. That's just kinda the way rng works though, and if the GM brought up gambler's fallacy it was probably because you're making it sound like he should have been guaranteed to get the weapon by now.

No matter how many times he runs Freehold or kills Vectis, the drop will never be guaranteed.
11/08/2018 03:44 AMPosted by Magic
11/08/2018 03:37 AMPosted by Leyami
...
Yes, that is what you are being told. Every time that boss is taken down, it is exactly the same chance...and more importantly, the drop rate isn't even 10%. I've looked up the `Bow of Virulent Infection' in two places, and both sites suggest the drop rate is only 1%. Which means your friend will only have one chance in a hundred of getting it, each and every time he tries for it.

Wish him luck for me.


Doesn’t increase the drop chance. But it does increase his chance at having it.

Indeed, and the difference is subtle. If I ran that raid a hundred times, my chance of getting the bow would technically still only be 1%...but I would be much more likely to get it than if I only ran it once, since I `rolled' against that 1% chance a hundred times. The OP seems to think the outcome should be guaranteed.
11/07/2018 04:55 PMPosted by Taironn
In short. He cant get a 370 bow and its enormously important to have a good weapon on your hunter.

The long. He has been running Vectis every week and rolling on it and has done dozens and dozens of Mythic+ that could drop him a bow.

What really bothers him, and me, is the response when he puts in a ticket about it.

The GM believes he is falling victim to 'The Gambler's Fallacy.' However, I say the fallacy only applies to systems with unknown results; dynamic systems, unpredictable systems. Things like the stock market, 3 pointers, black jack, etc.

The drop rate in these instances is fixed. My friend is right to have expected a result by now. I to, if I were him, would wonder if I had broke the game.

You have to remember, he isnt upset that it doesnt drop once. He is upset about how is hasnt dropped yet, for which the odds are stacked in his favour.


Your complaint here doesn't fall in all of the other loot complaints right now. Your friend's issue of not being able to get the drop has been in the game forever now. RNG is RNG - to quit over not getting one drop is silly.

Reaching out to a GM over a piece of loot that you never received won't get you anywhere. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Blizz never actually releases the true drop rate of items. A guildie of mine had been farming the polearm off of Zek'voz (I believe he drops) for months, like your friend. He finally got it last week.

You refer to "expecting" a drop. Yes, if the probability is such and such, you can expect to get it in an average of "this many tries". But, expected value doesn't work for everyone. Part of expected value is that some people will inevitably have to try more than others.
11/07/2018 05:00 PMPosted by Gabitha
I just got my 370 bow + socket last night. And from a raiding aspect its not out of the normal for years and years to have to grind weeks on end get weapon that you want out of a raid to drop or BIS item.

So stop whining about the drop rates and play the game the way its meant to be played or quit, no one cares anymore. Specially not Blizzard.
another get over it or quit post. sad.
i choose quit. 1 step closer to playing alone.
GM is right. You are falling to Gamblers Fallacy. You cannot hold the belief that if you do it enough times your chances increase. EVERY run has the same chance. If its a 15% chance, its a flat 15% chance. Ask every mount farmer in the game. We do not believe if we run 100 ICC runs we have an increased chance. We just keep pulling the lever and rolling our shot. I can say that there will be a time he gets his weapon. I had RNG favor me by dropping Jikun then Horridon for me on 2 runs of the same week. First two runs of ToT of the week actually. So giving up is just what RNGesus wants. He favors those that persist with his weak chances and rewards the lucky or the faithful. Thing is, you can never EXPECT it. Just hope.
tell him to get over it . I went the whole of the WoD expansion without getting a weapon drop from a raid when it was the current tier

RnG is RnG . sometimes its smiles on you , sometimes it doesnt . Thats the way it is and the way it should be
11/08/2018 04:48 AMPosted by Sulakin
tell him to get over it . I went the whole of the WoD expansion without getting a weapon drop from a raid when it was the current tier

RnG is RnG . sometimes its smiles on you , sometimes it doesnt . Thats the way it is and the way it should be
totally disagree. in a game that is played for fun, that is NOT how it should be.
at some point, after downing the same boss enough times you should be guaranteed to get that item.
especially given that the bosses are time gated.

maybe people go through your game a bit faster if they get the gear faster, but its better than having them become disgusted with the system and quitting altogether.
11/07/2018 05:21 PMPosted by Nightveil
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11/07/2018 05:05 PMPosted by Kîlljøy
wah wah blizzard won't give me free loot so i have a reason to log in and play wha wah.

Once i get my bow i will log out after i kill my npc in a boring raid every week wah wah.

No one cares, Gear should be hard to get and feel good when you get it.

People like your friend ruined this game.

Gratz on the free ilvl with weekly chests , emissaries WQ's and titan forges!
Crying about somene else cryng? Might I suggest you go google the term hypocrite? You should also learn to read, because you just made a complete fool of yourself.


He's ridiculing someone for crying. Not crying about crying. Reading comprehension much? You should learn to read, because you just made a complete fool of yourself.
11/07/2018 04:55 PMPosted by Taironn
In short. He cant get a 370 bow and its enormously important to have a good weapon on your hunter.

The long. He has been running Vectis every week and rolling on it and has done dozens and dozens of Mythic+ that could drop him a bow.

What really bothers him, and me, is the response when he puts in a ticket about it.

The GM believes he is falling victim to 'The Gambler's Fallacy.' However, I say the fallacy only applies to systems with unknown results; dynamic systems, unpredictable systems. Things like the stock market, 3 pointers, black jack, etc.

The drop rate in these instances is fixed. My friend is right to have expected a result by now. I to, if I were him, would wonder if I had broke the game.

You have to remember, he isnt upset that it doesnt drop once. He is upset about how is hasnt dropped yet, for which the odds are stacked in his favour.


Back when firelands was a fresh raid, my 10 man raid team raided firelands and cleared it 8/8 pretty much every week after about a month. Heroic or normal doesn’t matter, because the forthcoming example is the important thing. We cleared it every week for the entirety of the patch being current content, and we, as a raid, had one healing trinket drop the entire raid. Not one each, one total. The next patch? Each healer (we ran with three in firelands for the first month then two, just two in dragon soul with a third having off Spec healing) had two trinkets by week five.

Welcome to wow. In classic, a priest named Wrigley on aggramar tried for the eye for his benediction staff literally every week for well over a year and a half. Never got it. The drop rate is applied with every down of a boss, not aggregated over a period of time. Each time your friend kills a boss, the drop rate chances apply. This isn’t a finite system, in which your chances go up the more you kill the boss (i.e. bad luck protection), this is a closed system in which each boss kill is treated separately. If your friend kills the boss 10000 times and he hasn’t gotten the drop, then he is both unlucky and on the negative side of the drop chance. The person who kills the boss and gets the bow on the first down? They’re the ones who set the average drop chance on websites like wowhead.
"Why my friend is unsubbing."

Fixed

why no one cares.
RNG at everything s*cks, I don't even try to drop some mounts anymore, there's nothing good about ppl that tries to drop some itens more than 200x...

I wanted to feel joy in conquering something and not feel lucky.

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