3.2mill subs @Launch to Current 1.7mill

General Discussion
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If I suddenly found out that only a thousand people were playing world of warcrat, and my guild was still the way it is right now, I'd go, "meh", and continue playing. The amount of people playing the game or quitting has no inherent impact on my enjoyment of the game. Unless so many people stopped playing that they suddenly announced they were going free to play. Until that time, people can do what people like, I mean, I'm playing the Dragon Age games instead of doing stuff in wow outside of raid preparation. I'll get a wild hair to get back into wow heavily again, but I went real hard at the start so I feel good slowing down right now lol.
10/19/2018 08:31 AMPosted by Derka
You shouldn't believe anything you read on the internet.


I don't believe you.
10/19/2018 09:24 AMPosted by Caledonii
Yeah and some chicken-littleing people were claiming RAF in wotlk was a sign of Blizzard's desperation too.
The eternal optimism of Snowfox is boundless.

When you see people use the exact same types of arguments to claim wow is dying as they did 10 years ago, yeah you tend to roll your eyes at it a little.
Just going to point out it was disproved but lets say it was in fact a fact...so? 1.7 million for a game this old is rather impressive not saying i've not had my issue with bfa I have some annoying some funny like random flying fish in the sky glitches but the game is hardly dead.
10/19/2018 09:20 AMPosted by Sunandi
10/19/2018 08:49 AMPosted by Rastlin
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1.7 million is absolutely a fact.
(Of course, it may have fallen further since release of this fact.)

How do I know this? What is the proof:

Proof: When the information was released, Blizzard shut down the forums for 4+ hours. And they 404'd everything mentioning this information.

If it was fake, they would not panic like this.

My logic is undeniable.
This is the current sub number.


Thought I was the only one who noticed that. They panicked hard and made stupid decisions and got rid of all of the posts that talked about the low subs entirely. They made it so stupidly obvious that those numbers are either correct or near correct. If they were false they had nothing to hide nor worry about.

Anyone who still thinks the numbers are "disproven" youre lips are clearly firmly planted on blizzards lower regions. Logic and reasoning does not support your theories, it supports the low numbers theory.

Otherwise, give some hard proof the numbers aren't real.


You should read up on a concept known as the "burden of proof". In this case, WA twitter parroted some random person on Reddit and later said - "0 proof to this and no way to proof it since the source has vanished". It also appears to have been technically impossible for this to have occurred, given the number of requests that would have had to have been made in the short time this information was stated to have been available.

In this instance, the burden of proof requires that the one making the extraordinary claim (that WoW is down to 1.7 million subscribers) provide the evidence to back that claim. To give you an idea of why this is important, there is absolutely nothing you can do to prove that I did not wake up on the back of a dragon this morning. Does that, in fact, mean that I did? Of course not. The guy vanished, couldn't support his claim when confronted with evidence to the contrary, and there is simply no evidence to support that assertion. "Logic and reasoning" are words that are often misused to mean "my own personal feelings and convictions" these days.
10/19/2018 08:31 AMPosted by Lexindra
Does classic have glowy space goats?

No.

Therefore classic will be inferior.
If I were the dude that uncovered that I'd vanish too, honestly. Not everybody wants to be suddenly thrown into the spotlight for scrutiny/assault of the internet.

Maybe he didn't think WA would post it--which, granted, I think was a bad move on their part, but certainly one they're free to do (and then reap the +/- rewards/consequences from).
10/19/2018 09:16 AMPosted by Zugnificent
Wowhead having 11m users means nothing about active blizzard subs and is as much an extrapolation as my source was. Unique users in and of itself means it could be the same user, but on different devices or after cleared cookies, etc. It's a flawed metric.


It's really only a flawed metric if you had people pushing that 11m users was symbolic of accounts. Most people might use 2 devices. SOME may use 3. Some of those are undoubtedly not playing WoW and who knows why they're there, but hey whatever.

I don't feel it's far-fetched to peg that to around 4 million actively unique people when you shave away some of the chaff. But we'd be left with the assumption that everyone uses wowhead too, so that number is probably higher in reality.

Which also pokes at the flaw with the numbers with 50% of users using weakauras. I mean our raid group had to beat people into using it for mechanics, and that's to mythic raid! The addon is great though, and I've used it for years. But I would eat my hat if the majority were using it.

There are plenty of signs that the "Fact" is off. That's before we consider it's a singular post on a board for exploits/hacks, so unverified and in an environment that's not exactly upstanding either.

As to trying to claim Blizzard clamping down on it is a sign it's true, it's more a sign of protecting the company. Such a false allegation could do damage to the company image, and thus share-holders and at a certain point they're supposed to protect the people with money invested after all.

I'm sure subs aren't stellar compared to the past. But that's not unexpected, as time goes on you have less new people to draw in. People aren't sitting around for 14 years wanting to play WoW and just deciding today is the day after all. If they were interested, they tried it years ago.

I'm also sure there was a big spike, and then drop off. That's kind of been the pattern with new content in WoW for awhile, and not just WoW, FFXIV even commented on that pattern being observed(...especially among NA players).

The game's not perfect, never was, and never will be. If you really have some obsession with 1.7 million being right, all I can think is you want to see Blizzard fail because you're bitter or because you're unhappy and want to be proven "right". Either way, I have to wonder why you're here? It's a game, if you're not enjoying it go do something else. Life is short.

I'm enjoying MapleStory 2 for the moment on non-raid nights. Though probably not for terribly long. I'm looking forwards to the Ultima: underworld successor soon too!

Do what you enjoy man.
10/19/2018 09:29 AMPosted by Zugnificent
If I were the dude that uncovered that I'd vanish too, honestly. Not everybody wants to be suddenly thrown into the spotlight for scrutiny/assault of the internet.

Maybe he didn't think WA would post it--which, granted, I think was a bad move on their part, but certainly one they're free to do (and then reap the +/- rewards/consequences from).


So, do we simply believe people who make extraordinary claims and vanish at the first sight of questioning? Or only when it agrees with our own personal ideas and convictions? "0 proof to this and no way to proof (sic) it since the source has vanished". There is no evidence to support his assertion and it looks technically unfeasible if not outright impossible for him to have acquired such evidence in the first place. The guy likely didn't expect his random reddit post to gain much in the way of attention and then, rightly, feared a corporate entity coming after him for making such an egregiously incorrect and potentially damaging claim (as their earning reports, which are available online, indicate relatively high subscription revenue from WoW).
Until Activision releases sub numbers I'll go with the WA post and assume it's correct.
Lol fanboys gonna fanboy

"1.7 million subs? Pfft most MMOs should be so lucky!"

"750,000 subs?" More people than I can possibly ever meet or fit on a friend's list"

If the game dropped to 1 sub (just theirs) and Bli$$ard shut down the servers and all that was left was a blank login screen, I'm pretty sure they'd still pay the sub fee and defend the game.
10/19/2018 09:25 AMPosted by Mythlor
10/19/2018 08:31 AMPosted by Derka
You shouldn't believe anything you read on the internet.


I don't believe you.

In Siege of Orgrimmar, when you're on the boat about to make landing.. there's always this part where before Jaina summons the portal she says "Question Everything." and I always feel compelled to say out loud "Why?"
10/19/2018 09:26 AMPosted by Youmadbrew
10/19/2018 09:20 AMPosted by Sunandi
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Thought I was the only one who noticed that. They panicked hard and made stupid decisions and got rid of all of the posts that talked about the low subs entirely. They made it so stupidly obvious that those numbers are either correct or near correct. If they were false they had nothing to hide nor worry about.

Anyone who still thinks the numbers are "disproven" youre lips are clearly firmly planted on blizzards lower regions. Logic and reasoning does not support your theories, it supports the low numbers theory.

Otherwise, give some hard proof the numbers aren't real.


You should read up on a concept known as the "burden of proof". In this case, WA twitter parroted some random person on Reddit and later said - "0 proof to this and no way to proof it since the source has vanished". It also appears to have been technically impossible for this to have occurred, given the number of requests that would have had to have been made in the short time this information was stated to have been available.

In this instance, the burden of proof requires that the one making the extraordinary claim (that WoW is down to 1.7 million subscribers) provide the evidence to back that claim. To give you an idea of why this is important, there is absolutely nothing you can do to prove that I did not wake up on the back of a dragon this morning. Does that, in fact, mean that I did? Of course not. The guy vanished, couldn't support his claim when confronted with evidence to the contrary, and there is simply no evidence to support that assertion. "Logic and reasoning" are words that are often misused to mean "my own personal feelings and convictions" these days.


Well aware of what burden of proof is and I read the original tweet before it got taken down (another suspicious thing in this timeline) however in that original tweet there was a link linking to where the information was found. They gave the proof. So, wheres the proof from the people saying its 100% not true? its no where. Not to be found. So please give some proof that those numbers are 100% incorrect because blizzards very quick kneejerk reactions are showing us that those numbers were atleast partially true. Sorry if that hurts your feelings about the game but that's just how life is mate.
10/19/2018 09:24 AMPosted by Caledonii
...The eternal optimism of Snowfox is boundless.

When you see people use the exact same types of arguments to claim wow is dying as they did 10 years ago, yeah you tend to roll your eyes at it a little.
That is kind of a lazy though, because you are using the "boy who cried wolf" point, but in the end there is a wolf and the boy was right and died. So, yeah, the game might be deteriorating.

More over I'd say now you have a situation in which the usual Youtube defenders ect are more or less against the game, the community seems very skeptical, and these decision by Blizzard which seem desperate.
10/19/2018 09:34 AMPosted by Youmadbrew
10/19/2018 09:29 AMPosted by Zugnificent
If I were the dude that uncovered that I'd vanish too, honestly. Not everybody wants to be suddenly thrown into the spotlight for scrutiny/assault of the internet.

Maybe he didn't think WA would post it--which, granted, I think was a bad move on their part, but certainly one they're free to do (and then reap the +/- rewards/consequences from).


So, do we simply believe people who make extraordinary claims and vanish at the first sight of questioning? Or only when it agrees with our own personal ideas and convictions? "0 proof to this and no way to proof (sic) it since the source has vanished". There is no evidence to support his assertion and it looks technically unfeasible if not outright impossible for him to have acquired such evidence in the first place. The guy likely didn't expect his random reddit post to gain much in the way of attention and then, rightly, feared a corporate entity coming after him for making such an egregiously incorrect and potentially damaging claim (as their earning reports, which are available online, indicate relatively high subscription revenue from WoW).


It's all conjectural, naturally, but I figure he probably stumbled on the numbers while working with the API--didn't really have time to look that deeply into them but turned to his also-API-focused friend and said; "Hey, check this out, isn't this wild," and then things spiraled out of control very rapidly.

I don't think there was any nefarious intent, and I could totally see myself making a similar mistake--because that's what it would be, a mistake. Humans make them.

Again, all conjecture, not trying to prove or disprove anything in this thread, just saying that as much as we can slam down 3rd party sources and say that "disproves" it, we can also slam down 3rd party sources that say; "yeah but this 'proves' it." Which is to say nobody can really prove it one way or another.

I do think it's plausible, for reasons I outlined earlier. And that, to me, is kinda interesting in and of itself. Had something similar happened in say, MOP (even LATE MOP during SOO quagmire) I would have said; "Nah, that's not plausible," and laughed. Now in current context I'm saying; "That's interesting, seems a stretch but looking at xyz factors it is at least slightly plausible," and laughing at the absolute circus that resulted.
...
When you see people use the exact same types of arguments to claim wow is dying as they did 10 years ago, yeah you tend to roll your eyes at it a little.
That is kind of a lazy though, because you are using the "boy who cried wolf" point, but in the end there is a wolf and the boy was right and died. So, yeah, the game might be deteriorating.

FFS.

The lesson of the 'boy who cried wolf' isn't to keep believing the boy.

It's for him to stop calling emergency because that has long term consequences.
Snowfox answer a question for me since you have really good knowledge of the game and changes normally.

What was the server changes prior to BfA, was the servers population capacity increased or decreased? Im pretty sure i know but i want to be sure before i say anything.

10/19/2018 09:42 AMPosted by Snowfox
FFS.

The lesson of the 'boy who cried wolf' isn't to keep believing the boy.

It's for him to stop calling emergency because that has long term consequences.


Omg this also. Do people not understand the moral of the story?
10/19/2018 09:44 AMPosted by Iskandi
Snowfox answer a question for me since you have really good knowledge of the game and changes normally.

What was the server changes prior to BfA, was the servers population capacity increased or decreased? Im pretty sure i know but i want to be sure before i say anything.

I'm pretty sure they were increased. You'd rarely want to go the other direction.
Its weird to me why this matters if individually people are enjoying the game? Oh subs are down, now I can no longer enjoy and play WoW?

Subs have been on a decline since their peak in Wrath. You don't even need their reports to tell you that. Are they as low as that leaked info? No one knows but Blizzard. Its a waste of time trying to speculate.
10/19/2018 09:31 AMPosted by Trilanni
The game's not perfect, never was, and never will be. If you really have some obsession with 1.7 million being right, all I can think is you want to see Blizzard fail because you're bitter or because you're unhappy and want to be proven "right". Either way, I have to wonder why you're here? It's a game, if you're not enjoying it go do something else. Life is short.


Hi--thanks for your post, it was a good read. I do agree with a lot of what you said. I think everyone gets sucked into the "FORUMS SRS BIZNS RAAAAWR" trap. For me, I'm reading all this, smiling, chuckling, maybe shaking my head.

I don't really care about being proven right, and seeing Blizzard fail is, I assure you, the polar opposite of what I want. I think Classic enthusiasts are, by and large, rose-coloured-glasses-wearers, but I want to see it succeed. I want to see Blizzard do well. I want to see their communications practices change. I want to see developers learn and grow and for better IPs to emerge and current ones to be revitalized.

I am, to pick the cliche, here because I care. I speculate on the numbers tweets/etc because it was interesting, in the same way that government scandals that don't directly effect the well-being of people is interesting. Etc.

And, to be clear, I would love to see the hard proof that the numbers are wrong. I'd love to see the hard proof that the numbers are right! But I understand why both aren't posting, and that's fine.

We're just here to talk.

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