Numbers are in: Island expedition drop rates

BFA Dungeons, Island Expeditions, and Raids
Drop rate info
Difficulty: Normal (completed 254 times, looted 44 items)
Loot: Item:163816:[Snapper] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163800:[Poro] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163811:[Giggling Flame] - looted 3 times
Loot: Item:163814:[Mischievous Zephyr] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164567:[Miststalker's Hood] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164503:[Saurok Scale Headgear] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163815:[Littlehoof] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164367:[Plundered Blue Captain's Hat] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164559:[Firekin Headgear] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164421:[Geocrag Girdle] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163801:[Octopode Fry] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164399:[Dragonrider's Helmet] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164451:[Swarmfury Waistcord] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164497:[Headshrinker's Shoulders] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163924:[Whiskerwax Candle] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164373:[Enchanted Soup Stone] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164435:[Razorfin Battleplate] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163582:[Qinsho's Eternal Hound] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164351:[Plundered Dragonfist Wand] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164495:[Headshrinker's Cowl] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163797:[Scuttle] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:163813:[Playful Frostkin] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164368:[Plundered Crimson Captain's Hat] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164343:[Plundered Seacrystal Blade] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163804:[Kindleweb Spiderling] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164313:[Plundered Jinyu Spear] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164537:[Bloodwake Sabatons] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163818:[Bloodstone Tunneler] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164509:[Frostwind Gloves] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164493:[Headshrinker's Grips] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163805:[Craghoof Kid] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163795:[Oomgut Ritual Drum] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164425:[Geocrag Stompers] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164469:[Mrrglurggl Grips] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164516:[Voodoo Stalker's Vambraces] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164326:[Plundered Oracle Fin Staff] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164548:[Whirling Dervish Striders] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164462:[Tomb-Keeper's Helm] - looted 1 times

These numbers are post hotfix. I didn't have this addon before the hotfix.

Droprates still extremely low.

Background info:
These islands are run with a friend - hunting rares and killing mobs related to pets. We rarely mine or kill big azerite guy.

Even with this strategy we have 17% chance to get something random, and 83% chance to get nothing.
Heroic numbers so far (we stopped doing heroic due to inability to kill wave 3 spawns without winning or losing too quickly).

Difficulty: Heroic (completed 17 times, looted 3 items)
Loot: Item:163816:[Snapper] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163585:[Surf Jelly] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164312:[Plundered Jinyu Longsword] - looted 1 times
Sounds about right.

I've done way too many of these things. Mostly normal for the same reason, you can't kill the invasion mobs 90% of the time with a random group who is mining and opening the reinforced chests.

I feel like there was a period of time just after they announced the increased drop-rates where I was receiving loot on average around 1 out of 3 expeditions.

Recently though I can easily go 10-20 receiving nothing. Feels like something changed with the drop-rates.
11/13/2018 05:48 AMPosted by Doubleßrutal
Loot: Item:163582:[Qinsho's Eternal Hound] - looted 1 times


I've done as many as you since the drop increase and the fact you have at least this mount is more proof it is entirely RNG. I've gotten 0 mounts so far.
11/13/2018 05:48 AMPosted by Doubleßrutal
Loot: Item:163582:[Qinsho's Eternal Hound] - looted 1 times


11/13/2018 05:57 AMPosted by Doubleßrutal
Loot: Item:163585:[Surf Jelly] - looted 1 times


11/13/2018 05:48 AMPosted by Doubleßrutal
Droprates still extremely low.


you got 2 mounts.. the drop rate for you isnt really low from what I can see from your results, while I did 100 islands on my end some weeks ago I havent got near close to your 2 mounts result.
Sounds about right.

I've done way too many of these things. Mostly normal for the same reason, you can't kill the invasion mobs 90% of the time with a random group who is mining and opening the reinforced chests.

I feel like there was a period of time just after they announced the increased drop-rates where I was receiving loot on average around 1 out of 3 expeditions.

Recently though I can easily go 10-20 receiving nothing. Feels like something changed with the drop-rates.
Fully agreed. Immediately after the hotfix hit, I was getting similar results to what you described. Less than a week later and I'm back to less than what the OP describes.
Yup, feels like drops have been re-nerfed. Was getting a steady but not amazing selection of drops post hotfix but thats stopped as of 1-2 weeks ago.
Blizzard stealth nerfed them with 0 announcement of it.
yea i cant do this anymore, ive ran this a whole lot and the reward for time invested ratio is way way way off, so thats islands added to the list of things blizz messed up for no good reason, and 1 step closer to throwing my sub in the bin and finding a new game.
Your average drop rate seems to be what I am experiencing but your drop rates on the mounts seem a tad high.

From what I have seen the mounts have a drop rate between 1/500 and 1/2000 but my sample size is small and based on experience instead of numbers.

I do not like the way you collected your samples. I.E. 2 people running in the same instances as it skews the result.

We would get a much better sample if we could get 100 or so players to run 100 normal expeditions independent of each other. And tabulate the results from there. Perhaps do the same for heroic and mythic islands as well so we could get solid numbers.

The ultimate goal would be to get a large sample size with all independent runs. The scientist in me thinks that 10k runs per difficulty would give the best numbers on the drop rates. Remember larger numbers = more accurate results.
Out of 100 runs for myself, 21 had non-dubloon loot. If i take out duplicate drops, it goes down to 16
This is my data from my 111 island twink that I run normal islands on. I started doing islands on this toon 2 weeks ago so this data should be accurate for the current drop rates. I'd say for 90% of these Islands I was either running with one or two of my friends or people that I found through the Island community so take that into consideration. I kill 100% of invasion spawns because I stop killing mobs at ~3000 score every island and I specifically target mobs which i know have a loot table. I ignore rares like bears,crocs,wolves, etc. that have no known loot table.

Start Date: 2018/10/30 22:05
End Date: 2018/11/14 21:51

Difficulty: Normal (completed 314 times, looted 63 items)
Loot: Item:164473:[Mrrglurggl Spaulders] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163800:[Poro] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163811:[Giggling Flame] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163814:[Mischievous Zephyr] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:163583:[Craghorn Chasm-Leaper] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164323:[Plundered Sea-Sinew Stave] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163815:[Littlehoof] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164367:[Plundered Blue Captain's Hat] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163820:[Muskflank Calfling] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164431:[Helm of the Tranquil Path] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163805:[Craghoof Kid] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164522:[Voodoo Stalker's Chestguard] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163810:[Thistlebrush Bud] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164354:[Plundered Wingblade Axe] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164512:[Frostwind Anklewraps] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164498:[Headshrinker's Vestments] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163803:[Sparkleshell Sandcrawler] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164434:[Waistcord of the Tranquil Path] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164325:[Plundered Trident Barb] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164469:[Mrrglurggl Grips] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164369:[Plundered Pirate Admiral's Bicorne] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164304:[Plundered Celestial Finblade] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164518:[Voodoo Stalker's Boots] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163582:[Qinsho's Eternal Hound] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163822:[Kunchong Hatchling] - looted 3 times
Loot: Item:164398:[Dragonrider's Boots] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163807:[Tinder Pup] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164430:[Gloves of the Tranquil Path] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164404:[Twilight Dragon's Crushers] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164495:[Headshrinker's Cowl] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163809:[Deathsting Scorpid] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164500:[Saurok Scale Bindings] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164317:[Plundered Sapling Seed] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163812:[Laughing Stonekin] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163797:[Scuttle] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164531:[Bloodwake Breastplate] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164438:[Razorfin Helm] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164352:[Plundered Darkscale Blade] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163819:[Snort] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163798:[Captain Nibs] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164504:[Saurok Scale Greaves] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163818:[Bloodstone Tunneler] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164537:[Bloodwake Sabatons] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164375:[Bad Mojo Banana] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164342:[Plundered Geode Gavel] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164407:[Twilight Dragon's Legplates] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163801:[Octopode Fry] - looted 2 times
Loot: Item:164465:[Tomb-Keeper's Sabatons] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164536:[Bloodwake Spaulders] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164401:[Dragonrider's Spaulders] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164511:[Frostwind Vestments] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:163806:[False Knucklebump] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164519:[Voodoo Stalker's Mask] - looted 1 times
Loot: Item:164462:[Tomb-Keeper's Helm] - looted 1 times

I've done far more islands than this but this is just the data I have since I made this toon and since I downloaded the addon.
11/14/2018 10:22 AMPosted by Sarrlock
I do not like the way you collected your samples. I.E. 2 people running in the same instances as it skews the result.


If you're farming Islands for loot and you're not doing it in a group or multiboxing then you are going to have a bad time, especially if you're not a twink. At least as a twink you kill the mobs so fast that you basically determine what gets pulled and what doesn't. Regardless you should definitely be grouping for these if you want to do it efficiently and not waste your time and get guaranteed invasion kills.
I've been running these and froze xp on this character since about late August. I was very casual with it with the exception of weeks where pirates are present on the rotting mire, which happened 3 times so far. I've done roughly 600 rotting mires with pirates between this character and a druid and shaman and mage. I've killed nothing but pirates, ignored all azerite, and the invasion if I can help it.

Where am I going wrong? Am I just unlucky as fk?

How frequent are you guys seeing pirate invasions? I've gone over 200 before I even saw my first one, and I had a few cases where I had 4 or 5 pirate invasions back to back. Lately I haven't seen any, but I am so determined to get squawks.

People who have squawks, how did you get him to drop? Where did he drop? Invasion or rotting mire? Did you kill dreadbeard?

I have 5 captain nibs and 6 barnaby, about 8 of each hat, and a few xmog weapons from pirates, I kind of feel like I'm getting screwed over here.

11/14/2018 07:14 PMPosted by Támonx
11/14/2018 10:22 AMPosted by Sarrlock
I do not like the way you collected your samples. I.E. 2 people running in the same instances as it skews the result.


If you're farming Islands for loot and you're not doing it in a group or multiboxing then you are going to have a bad time, especially if you're not a twink. At least as a twink you kill the mobs so fast that you basically determine what gets pulled and what doesn't. Regardless you should definitely be grouping for these if you want to do it efficiently and not waste your time and get guaranteed invasion kills.
Also, what do you guys reccomend? I've stayed at 110, and I'm contemplating on doing the quest lines to get my azerite gear, and get into some mythic argus's. Is 111 that much better?

11/14/2018 07:14 PMPosted by Támonx
11/14/2018 10:22 AMPosted by Sarrlock
I do not like the way you collected your samples. I.E. 2 people running in the same instances as it skews the result.


If you're farming Islands for loot and you're not doing it in a group or multiboxing then you are going to have a bad time, especially if you're not a twink. At least as a twink you kill the mobs so fast that you basically determine what gets pulled and what doesn't. Regardless you should definitely be grouping for these if you want to do it efficiently and not waste your time and get guaranteed invasion kills.
11/15/2018 05:59 AMPosted by Doncheedle
Also, what do you guys reccomend? I've stayed at 110, and I'm contemplating on doing the quest lines to get my azerite gear, and get into some mythic argus's. Is 111 that much better?


110 is better if you have Mythic argus level gear. I just went to 111 because I made this toon a couple weeks ago and its easier to just go 111 and craft boe gear. Either is fine but 110 with mythic argus gear is stronger. I had a 110 lock that was 260ilvl but i leveled it so I boosted this to farm islands on. I got squawks on rotting mire week with pirates, maybe I got lucky idk but me and 2 of my friends got it that week. I have 3/5 mounts so maybe I'm lucky but I've also done a lot of islands.
11/15/2018 07:03 AMPosted by Támonx
11/15/2018 05:59 AMPosted by Doncheedle
Also, what do you guys reccomend? I've stayed at 110, and I'm contemplating on doing the quest lines to get my azerite gear, and get into some mythic argus's. Is 111 that much better?


110 is better if you have Mythic argus level gear. I just went to 111 because I made this toon a couple weeks ago and its easier to just go 111 and craft boe gear. Either is fine but 110 with mythic argus gear is stronger. I had a 110 lock that was 260ilvl but i leveled it so I boosted this to farm islands on. I got squawks on rotting mire week with pirates, maybe I got lucky idk but me and 2 of my friends got it that week. I have 3/5 mounts so maybe I'm lucky but I've also done a lot of islands.


Idk if you got lucky, or I just have terrible luck! I've gotten every pirate item and pet several times, so in my head each pirate item I got had a chance to be squawks, rng just kind of screwed me. I'm definitely going to stay 110 and get some buddy's to bring me through mythic argus. I am only farming IE's for this one mount, but with my luck, this could take a long time!

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