Mathematical study of value of Pulverize

So if for example if we start with no shield, boss swing is 2 Secs, and we Maul once per 3 secs, yellow 1 per 1.5 and melee at 2.5 then our average attack per second is = 1/3 + 1/1.5 + 1/2.5 = 1.4 so in the time between boss swings we have 2.8 hits to refresh the shield, which at say 40% crit is 20% to refresh per hit or (1-(1-0.2)^2.8) = 0.46, and this is increased by there being a 40% chance of missing. The continuing sum boosts the chance up to 0.46/(1-0.4*0.46) = 0.56% chance of being there when hit.

Actually I am sure if I dig through Tangedyns spreadsheet that what he does. More or less.
No, that's exactly what he does - and what I did back when I looked into how SD worked back in 3.1.

But like you say, it's not actually 'uptime', and it's not actually accurate compared to a sim. It doesn't do things like simulate overwrites or weird streaks. It's not bad, mind you, and it gives a ballpark idea - but the simulation should be significantly more accurate as far as the actual behavior you see in SD's case.

However Felhoof's number of course doesn't really tell you how often it will be there when you are hit
That's true. The number you want in that case is either the 53.9% number (hits per non-avoided hits) or simply the number of blocked hits/total hits. I personally like the last the best, because you can compare that directly to block% for paladins and warriors and get a much better idea of how they compare directly.

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