How random is random loot?

General Discussion
I know that every piece of gear has a chance to drop.. But after gearing multiple toons I can officially say that Shaman gear drops a LOT.

I swear 80% of the time it will be Mail armor. Anyone else notice how much mail armor drops?

I would expect more plate or cloth to drop if anything..
Honestly I can't say I care much what drops, just...as long as someone in the group can use it. Nothing irks me more than when we do BH and gear drops for a class we don't have. Like, wtf.

No. I had difficulty getting anything to drop for this character. Mostly what I saw while trying to gear through regulars was plate, cloth, leather. Random is random, I suppose.
Does every piece in the loot table have an equal % to drop?
From a pure mathematical standpoint, no computer algorithm can create true/pure randomness. Heck the human brain cannot even generate anything truly random.

Further, randomness does not equate to evenness, in fact just the opposite. In truly random data sets there are "clusters".

And lastly, I think you are seeing only what you want to see. You are probably seeing close to random drops but your brain is focusing in on the shaman gear (maybe because you do not have a shaman).
06/15/2011 09:35 AMPosted by Denestus
Does every piece in the loot table have an equal % to drop?


No different pieces have different percentages. And most of the time, the pieces players want most are the 3-5% chance to drop items
06/15/2011 09:35 AMPosted by Mikebeerd
No different pieces have different percentages. And most of the time, the pieces players want most are the 3-5% chance to drop items


Interesting.. I wonder why? Shouldn't everyone have an equal % chance to get the item they are looking for?

(Excluding things like ultra rare mounts, and epic drops off a normally blue drop boss)
The drop rate of an item is inversely proportional to the needs of the party members.
From a pure mathematical standpoint, no computer algorithm can create true/pure randomness. Heck the human brain cannot even generate anything truly random.

Further, randomness does not equate to evenness, in fact just the opposite. In truly random data sets there are "clusters".


What are truly random data sets and how are they created? Or are they observed?

Explain :) Very interesting!
06/15/2011 09:42 AMPosted by Whend
The drop rate of an item is inversely proportional to the needs of the party members.


So true...

The last 3 runs of ZA/ZG have persisted in dropping Mail Int/Spirit gear, despite the lack of a casting shaman in the party.
06/15/2011 09:57 AMPosted by Diagnose
The drop rate of an item is inversely proportional to the needs of the party members.


So true...

The last 3 runs of ZA/ZG have persisted in dropping Mail Int/Spirit gear, despite the lack of a casting shaman in the party.


I've been trying for the shoulders you are wearing for quite awhile.. I bet I have done it over 35 times. The majority of the time the bracers drop.

I am chasing the gear carrot.. but it is really burning me out. Getting tired of it.
10 ZG's down, haven't seen the hex mask drop once :(
As random as it gets when you need a seed to generate random numbers.
06/15/2011 10:02 AMPosted by Redneckmedic
10 ZG's down, haven't seen the hex mask drop once :(


I saw it drop my first run.. There wasn't even a clothie in the group.
Random: Having no definite aim or purpose; not sent or guided in a particular direction; made, done, occurring, etc., without method or conscious choice; haphazard.

By most people's definition, outcome is completely unpredictable. The unpredictable aspect makes algorithms true and untrue. You would need to know the underlying values and formulas used to derive the number, so it's random enough.

Taken to extremes, events we accept as random are not truely random either. Die rolls, lotto numbers, roulette wheels, lightning strikes, all are seemingly random events, but are not. They are just highly complex events with a lot of factors. If you could duplicate all the factors exactly as they were before, you could reproduce any random event.
We have downed cho'gall like 7-8 times now, and every single time the shaman,hunter and whatever token has dropped. And we only raid with 1 hunter and 1 resto shaman. The healer has 3 sets of shoulders. So freaking rediculous
Unfortunately this has been an issue since the beginning. My preist has what seems to be the worst luck of all while my rogue and mage seem to be extremely lucky. Mikebeerd is right there is no true randon in computer calculations.
I can say that it is very annoying but in the many years i have played this game it has been the same. When you are in a run what you want never drops and when you arent it does :P
And after endless runs and not even leaving with trash or profession loot it gets really annoying but im sure eventually i will get used to it :\

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