Twistedmind explains 5.2 changes (pvp & pve)

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For the following, I ran my spells through the spell breakdown chart and found my original amount of healing done (that's my current gear with reforges), and then found how much of an increase 100 of each secondary stat gave. Then I ran it through again with 0 secondary stats, with 6000 secondary stats in each, and 9000 secondary stats in each.

For my real spell choice in Blade Lord:
total amount healed
original 24,647,785 0.00%
100 mastery 24,682,334 0.14%
100 haste 24,647,785 0.23%
100 crit 24,686,828 0.16%
50 int 24,690,222 0.17%
100 int 24,732,673 0.34%

at 0 5,592,576 0.00%
100 mastery 5,601,502 0.16%
100 haste 5,592,576 0.24%
100 crit 5,601,891 0.17%
50 int 5,624,838 0.58%
100 int 5,657,115 1.15%

at 6000 26,320,634 0.00%
100 mastery 26,357,850 0.14%
100 haste 26,320,634 0.21%
100 crit 26,359,132 0.15%
50 int 26,365,535 0.17%
100 int 26,410,450 0.34%

at 9000 28,664,954 0.00%
100 mastery 28,703,919 0.14%
100 haste 28,664,954 0.19%
100 crit 28,704,862 0.14%
50 int 28,713,625 0.17%
100 int 28,762,312 0.34%

And for Garalon:
total amount healed
original 25,913,294 0.00%
100 mastery 25,948,759 0.14%
100 haste 25,945,063 0.36%
100 crit 25,958,969 0.18%
50 int 25,958,885 0.18%
100 int 26,004,494 0.35%

at 0 10,317,222 0.00%
100 mastery 10,332,743 0.15%
100 haste 10,317,222 0.23%
100 crit 10,337,085 0.19%
50 int 10,372,454 0.54%
100 int 10,407,839 0.88%

at 6000 27,039,139 0.00%
100 mastery 27,076,600 0.14%
100 haste 27,039,139 0.21%
100 crit 27,082,781 0.16%
50 int 27,087,474 0.18%
100 int 27,135,827 0.36%

at 9000 30,424,741 0.00%
100 mastery 30,465,436 0.13%
100 haste 30,424,741 0.19%
100 crit 30,471,085 0.15%
50 int 30,477,599 0.17%
100 int 30,530,474 0.35%

Keep in mind that the factors presented in the previous post aren't modeled very well, and this is theoretical so it isn't accounting for the massive overhealing my atonements and cascades usually do. Also, if you use more or less pw:s during an encounter than my models, my mastery weighting is going to be off. If you use more gheals than these models (I used less than 5 of both encounters), you're haste number weight is going to be bigger and your crit number weight is going to be smaller than what I have listed. If you take these with a grain of salt, you can safely reach these conclusions:

A good all around stat weight for next patch (assuming we have the correct spirit shell formula) is:
Int: 1
Haste: 0.58
Crit: 0.45
Mastery: 0.40

Now, here's what you should do for gemming, reforges, and gearing:

- If you roll PoH for stacking divine aegis (on fights with predictable burst), you're still going to want to stack mastery. This is because haste is only relevant as long as you have time to prep, which is to say it's largely irrelevant. You want to reforge to mastery on all of your gear and gem mastery.

- If you're doing a fight with heavy single target healing, you're going to want as much haste as you can get without going oom, or as much haste as will reach a soft haste plateau for fitting a number of gheals into your rotation for train of thought. After that, you're going to want to grab mastery. You should be gemming int.

- If you're doing a fight with rolling aoe, you're going to want as much haste as you can get without going oom. Then you're going to want all your reforges going into crit. you should be gemming haste unless it will oom you. If you have too much haste, you want to gem int.

- If you're not going into the next tier with a lot of spirit on your gear (ilevel of less than 500), you're going to want to reforge all of your secondaries to crit, and you're going to want to gem spirit until comfortable, then gem int.
To quote my personal reforges/gemming that I was speculating about for next tier:
4717 haste for the holy and spirit shell softcaps
4800 mastery to retain the previous value of mastery scaling
7320+4717 spirit to both make the mana cost of the pw:s mana neutral and to account for haste
and the rest crit (about 2446)
hopefully able to gem for int, but that's depending on how much gear has spirit on it

I'm actually looking at getting closer to 5000 haste, and lowering my mastery to 3482 and bringing crit up to 3482. Spirit should be 7320+5000. I'm going to raise crit and mastery equally, and I'm going to try to gem int.

I'm doing this because I feel that my hps outside of spirit shell is being tested more in these harder heroic modes. I also feel that I can't do enough because of my low haste. I feel tethered to mastery for now (patch 5.1) because of how much it gives. Once freed from this restriction, I'm going to get my 5000 haste and raise it with my 5000 spirit (after the rapture = pw:s softcap). This will also bump me up to the really important holy softcaps. After that, I'm raising crit and mastery evenly because they're too close to put an exact value on which one is more important. Mastery looks great on predictable fights, crit looks good on rolling damage fights. Stacking one at the expense of the other isn't going to break the way you play. You'll probably not even notice a big difference when going between 3500 crit and mastery.

If you're reading this and it's all confusing, you probably won't notice a big change in your hps if you stack 7320 spirit, and then raise spirit, haste, crit, and mastery up 1 point at a time (gemming int). The closest breakdown of this is in my 6000 model above.
About geming, are you saying you're gonna gem as much int as possible or are you just going to gem int into red gem slot? With the double secondary stats vs prime stats wouldn't you still be better off gemming for secondary stats?

Oh and are you saying you'll try to get 12 000 spirit (I'm assuming flasking int)? That seems like a lot even taking into account the haste boost.
Thanks for the data. It seems that Mastery will still be a good stat as long as DA is used to moderate effect.

Still, just checking, did you split your DAs into non-crit PoH DAs and crit DAs when calculating the stat weights?
If I had to guess it doesn't look like it, with those increase trends the majority of his DA came from PoH (over 60%).

Those are some very interesting numbers, especially considering you said your PW:S usage is higher. My only remaining question is if the parses these were taken from were heroic or no? This is especially important in interpreting Garalon.
Yea, I was wondering if he did that because doing so would probably push the stat weights much higher in Mastery's favour.
Thanks, I actually have more rotations numbers that I made up, but I miscalculated in them so I'm redoing it.

When I say gem for int, I do mean red gems slots are int, but purples are more likely to be purified, yellow most likely will be artful or reckless. I'm still going to be using int food and flask, the 12k spirit is going to be on my gear. We should be able to reach that in the next tier, but that's looking at ilevel scalings at the 518 level. Blizz could pull a firelands and neuter our spirit again, which means another tier of gemming spirit.

For how DA is was modeled, I took the sum of all spells cast in an encounter and put that into a time until oom calculation so I could see if stacking too much haste would oom me. Then I took my current live stats and saw what happened if I increased each one by 100. The percent increase to the summed healing (or in the case of haste, the increase in hps) and reported each one in the third column listed. So this does account for crits, but not as well for overhealing. I averaged my overhealing on the spells, and for the ones that were high contenders over the weeks (like cascade and atonement), I was unable to account for every instance or scenario of why I was casting each spell and what was going on. I also can't model the randomness of crits without doing hundreds of sims. This was accounting for the chance of a spell critting and giving it a little more value of the modified crit number (to account for the extra DA and the crit meta gem). I tried to observe when I cast evangelism spells at what stacks, and I tried to look at when I was casting Inner Focus to see if I was trying to use it for the DA portion (guaranteed big bubble) or for the recovery portion (low overhealing). I looked at archangel and grace, but it was a per spell situation for giving different weights to them, so these are largely ignored and may shift haste and mastery to a higher value in some situations.

These were heroic. It could be argued that in heroic modes with more outgoing damage, crit would also have lower overhealing. When comparing mastery to the other stats, it's entirely up to how often you use PW:S. If you only use shields for rapture, and your rapture averages are realistically 20 sec, mastery is probably not the stat you want.
I have no idea why I'm getting different Mastery stat weights from you. On any fight with moderate DA and IF usage (since the 100% Crit portion essentially renders whatever Crit we have useless), Mastery comes up on top by far. It could be that I have higher DA usage as I'm in a 25 man, but it's probably due to the way we calculate these values.

I guess why I asked the question about splitting your DA values is because roughly 60% of your DA come from non-crit PoH (the guaranteed portion), and those DA have zero contribution from Crit. The other 40% of your DA, on the other hand, have a 1:2 contribution from Mastery and Crit respectively.
Well, Inner Focus doesn't render Crit all together useless. It only takes the spells that were cast to be guaranteed off the table when looking at secondary stat gains through crit. There is still the entirety of the other spells being cast, but I get what you're saying.

I picked the two fights where in one, I pad people up with everything I have for burst healing, and the other where I drop my overhealing to a minimum because of the pulsing aura. My theoretical fight is more or less hitting things off cooldown, and demonstrating a fight with heavy strength of soul usage, a heavy train of thought (gheal) usuage, and pure PoH with rapture and pom/cascade spam. I haven't included these because I was more or less dividing a fight time by the amount of spells needing to be cast, and that won't work practically because they could come up at differing times when fiddling with haste.

I don't know why you would have a mastery weight higher than crit either. I was actually quite surprised myself to see mastery as high as it was in my calcs. Just from a basic calc level of PoH, crit will give bigger increases to your whole PoH. Every other spell cast besides PoH has horrible mastery scaling because of the DA only on crits, so it makes sense to me that crit would have a bigger weight. When I was accounting for my overhealing, I took a flat % reduction in all of my gains with crits because I was trying to account for the crits that go into more overhealing. It still makes sense to me that crit is a higher weighted stat even when subtracting overhealing value because our spells cast breakdown isn't just PoH/PW:S spam. It's PoM, Renew, Gheal, Heal, Flash Heal, Binding Heal, Desperate Prayer/Healthstone, Penance, Atonements, Cascade, all of which scale better with crit.

Are you looking at your spells percent breakdowns on your fights and trying to weight them that way? If so, you want to break down your fights by spells cast and then weight those. I don't think it's a 10 vs 25 thing.
Also, you've brought up the ratios of crit PoH's and non-crit PoH's. They wouldn't account for fixed percentages of the logged Divine Aegis numbers because their values could change depending on spell choices.

The way I handled this variance is by taking my actual spells cast in the two real encounters that I felt was stressing my limits. So I have a chart of how many times I cast some spells and what their healing totals are. This accounts for both crit poh da's and non-crit poh da's. Then I look at the totals increased by changing secondary stats' values. I can see that mastery stacking shifts the ratios of your healing % breakdowns into more absorbs instead of more healing, but even with the burst from blade lord I was showing the above percents which favor haste.

If stacking DA or spirit shell is what you would want to emphasize in your spell breakdowns, it wouldn't be wrong to stack mastery. Even when looking at weights from a hps perpective, you should be looking at the most effective healing per second, which might not always be the highest number. Vol touched on this by saying there is such a thing as too much haste, but that same logic applies when comparing crit to mastery.
Twisted, you brought up a good point and I owe you an apology. I've been going this all wrong, and with adjusted calculations, it looks like Crit does trump Mastery next patch.

Based on this log

Assuming 15% crit and 55% mastery raid buffed post-patch 5.2. Assumung spell breakdown of 25% SS, 32% DA, 8% PW:S and 35% other heals; essentially high DA and PW:S usage which should favour Mastery.

% of overall healing from SS = 25%
% of overall healing from SS assuming zero crit/mastery = 25%/1.15/1.1775 = 12.25%
% of overall healing from SS contributed by crit/mastery = 25% - 12.25% = 12.75%

Contribution per point of mastery and crit to SS is in the ratio of 0.833:1

% of overall healing contributed by mastery = 0.833/1.833 * 12.75% = 5.79%
% of overall healing contributed by crit = 1/1.833 * 12.75% = 6.96%

Assuming that IF is used each SS, ~1/6.5 SS casts are not affected by our 15% crit

adjusted % of overall healing contributed from crit = 5/6.5 * 6.96% = 5.35%

On average, 50% of total DA comes from a non-crit PoH, 25% from a PoH crit and the remaining 25% from other spell crits. To clarify, a DA from a non-crit PoH only benefits from mastery only while the other DA benefit from both mastery and crit.

% of overall healing from DA = 32%

% of overall healing from non-crit PoH DA = 32% * 0.5 = 16%
% of overall healing from non-crit PoH DA assuming zero mastery = 16%/1.55 = 10.32%
% of overall healing from non-crit PoH DA contributed by mastery = 16% - 10.32% = 5.68%

% of overall healing from crit PoH DA = 32% * 0.25 = 8%
% of overall healing from crit PoH DA assuming zero crit/mastery = 8%/2/1.55 = 2.58%
% of overall healing from crit PoH DA contributed by crit = 2.58%
% of overall healing from crit PoH DA contributed by mastery = 8%-(2.58%*2) = 2.84%

% of overall healing from DA triggered by other spell crits = 32% * 0.25 = 8%
% of overall healing from DA triggered by other spell crits assuming zero crit/mastery = 0% (obviously no crit = no DA)
% of overall healing from DA triggered by other spell crits contributed by crit = 8%/1.55 = 5.16%
% of overall healing from DA triggered by other spell crits contributed by mastery = 8% - 5.16% = 2.84%

% of overall healing from PW:S = 8%
% of overall healing from SS assuming zero mastery = 8%/1.55 = 5.16%
% of overall healing from SS contributed by mastery = 8% - 5.16% = 2.84%

Other spells:
% of overall healing from other spells = 35%
% of overall healing from other spells assuming zero crit = 35%/1.15 = 30.4%
% of overall healing from other spells contributed by crit = 35% - 30.4% = 4.6%

% of overall healing contributed by crit = 5.35% + 2.58% + 5.16% + 4.6% = 17.69%
% of overall healing contributed per 600 crit rating = 17.69/15/1.03 (to account for the meta) = 1.14%

% of overall healing contributed by mastery = 5.79% + 5.68% + 2.84% + 2.84% + 2.84% = 19.99%
% of overall healing contributed per 600 mastery rating = 19.99/(55/2.5) = 0.91%
Conclusions: Mastery isn't useless, and it's still going to be ideal on fights with high PW:S usage and on fights that allow you to stack tons of DA from PoH. Still, as Twisted has concluded, Haste till certain SS breakpoints is going to be our premier stat. I'm probably going to use the new Solace come 5.2, and having higher Haste is going to allow me to weave it into my rotation much more easily.

The issue with such values is that it constraints Blizzard from fixing the real issues with Disc. I think it's been quite clear for a while that SS has been scaling too well with Mastery, and from the latest GC tweet, it looks like Blizzard agrees. Thus, changing the way SS works in 5.2 allows Blizzard to fix the scaling issue and reduce the amount absorbed by SS, effectively killing two birds with one stone.

However, the side result is the devaluation of Mastery for Disc Priests. What this means is that 50% DA will be here to stay, and I simply do not see Blizzard nerfing it as it will essentially destroy the entire Mastery stat for Disc Priests. Still, I think many Disc Priests can agree that the current play style of DA stacking is neither fun nor engaging.

Ultimately, Blizzard has few alternatives when it comes to Disc, namely:
1) Revert the DA buff to 30% whilst keeping SS the same. This fixes the issue of just how powerful it is to stack DA with PoH, but it brings back the scaling issue with SS whilst making SS and our Mastery too strong.

2) Change our Mastery values as suggested by Volios. The downside is that reducing how much our Mastery contributes to absorbs will result in PW:S and to a lesser extent, DA, scaling poorly.

3) Proceed as planned. However, it doesn't address the most glaring issue of DA stacking via PoH being too strong.

At this stage though, I guess we'll just have to be content with being PoH/DA bots. On the upside, at least we'll still dominate the meters.
Yeah, I'll admit to trying to play the meters for dumb things like lfr or farm just because you can roll PoH when nothing is really happening:

But something I'm also thinking about is what's happening to tanks next patch. They've been getting more and more gear. So much that it's almost weird to me when they take a fully unmitigated hit. As the difficulty is supposed to rise, the patch 5.2 bosses are just going to be wrecking tanks (think 50% of their hp going out per melee hit). This does things for us.

- For one, we're going to have to stay on top of keeping the tank "padding spells" up to closer to 100% uptime. So this, "I only chain cast PoH" or "I only chain cast atonements" playstyle is going to have to go or else your tanks are going to always die on you.

- Spells like grace and rotations with strength of soul, train of thought (gheal version), from darkness comes light, and divine insight will most likely have a much bigger importance than they do now. As for holy, if you haven't been maximizing serendipity after hw: serenity (which is exactly enough time for a serenity->flash->flash->greater), practice using that with from darkness comes light procs and the like. Having the 2 piece bonus also makes this much more forgiving in emergencies.

- Absorbing up a tank can keep them alive through just about everything. However, have you ever had this problem: you load a tank up. Their hp isn't moving, so the tank sits on his mitigation waiting for enough damage to spike. Your cohealers let their padding drop off and attend to other things, even if it's dps. Suddenly your 400k in absorbs falls off, and the tank takes 75% of his hp in mere seconds. Everybody freaks, tank cd's go off, healers spam inefficient heals, all parties involved stand in something they're not supposed to, or they miss something really critical because they're reacting to this new sht hitting the fan.
Mk, that probably doesn't happen often on that large of a scale, but you can see where I'm getting at. On some fights, I feel that it's more "useful" to just layer in a steady stream of heals, whether its aoe or single target, because my other team members can see just how even the incoming damage pattern is. One thing absorbs do that's bad for your raid (and this never gets talked about) is that is screws up the logistics for everyone because of the temporary stops in moving health bars.

Now with that in mind, always keep these thoughts in the forefront:

  • Disc does do more damage because you can do it without neglecting healing. With a glyphed penance and this new solace, you can also be quite mobile and doing dps. But holy in chastice does win at doing the most dps when in it, and it's mana free (unlike disc).
  • People at silly low hps can be reacted to with guardian spirit, lightspring, void shift, or flash heal. But nothing beats actually keeping them alive like an instant pw:s bubble from disc.
  • Disc has two one ups on holy with their mana: Rapture and Inner Focus.
  • Holy does better hps on single targets than disc before grace reaches 3 stacks. I'm saying this even with archangel in mind, and using pw:s. Also, this hps is steady, but can be quickened with serendipity.
  • Disc can do good aoe with absorbs, but always remember that you can't predict everything. You also can't bring people back with low health as disc, and sht happens with bad timers, mistakes, w/e.
  • Holy can bring people back from the dead, and when people are really hurt, holy can do it better by twice as much than disc. And it can do this on the move and outside the party restriction (circle of healing) or spread out (renew, divine insight procs, or divine hymn).

With those thoughts in mind, you actually might actually see me really trying to use holy much more next patch. It's still frustrating to see disc getting more mana next patch, and disc doing so much dps and healing (atonement needs to be axed a bit, like eminence was for monks imo), but I would still recommend keeping holy in your back pocket.
I spent today playing around with the ptr. I can confirm that we do have the correct formula for prayer of healing, it still treats crit as a modifier and not a chance. The divine aegis portion does benefit from mastery and is correctly using the 50% instead of the 30% modifier. So ultimately, spirit shell does still benefit from mastery. Just, not as much as before.

Regarding the single target heals, I'm still guessing at what the formula could be. The single target spells do still benefit from Grace, and they also are consistent (so no chance to crit theories here). When I looked at the values, the number was too big to be modified by just crit, but including divine aegis isn't adding up for me either. I'm still playing the guessing game of figuring it out, but I don't have much in the way for changing my mastery short of stripping down, which affects my int.

I also heavily analyzed the new holy word: solace and put down all my finding here:

That thread and power word: solace gets its own massive thread, and I made sure to put it in the forum where the class designers go to actually read feedback. So perhaps any solace discussion should go there.
01/06/2013 09:54 PMPosted by Twistedmind
Regarding the single target heals, I'm still guessing at what the formula could be.

Does this work?

Non SS PoH = Average Heal * (1 + 0.5 * (1 + Mastery %) * Critical %) * (1 + Critical %)

I ask because in the old formula your SS heals received the DA modifier, mastery modifier and critical strike modifier across the heal. The DA modifier had to be multiplied by your critical strike chance though to account for single-target heals only gaining DA when they land as a critical strike.

In what I posted above the only difference is the mastery modifier across the heal gets moved to just the DA. But again, the DA with the mastery included would have to be multiplied by your critical strike chance to account for single-target heals only gaining DA when they land as a critical strike. And of course the critical strike chance would have to be multiplied across the healing portion of the ability.
I've tried:
Heal = Average Heal * (1 + 0.5 * (1 + Mastery %) * Critical %) * (1 + Critical %)
Heal = Average Heal * (1 + Critical %)
Heal = Average Heal * (1 + 0.5 * (1 + Mastery %) * Critical %)
Heal = [ Average Heal * (1 + 0.5 * (1 + Mastery %) * Critical %) ] + [ Average Heal * (1 + Critical %) ]

What I'm trying to do now is figure out how this stuff changes depending on stat changes. The best way I'm doing this is I have both the Inscribed Red Fan and the Raid Finder Fan of the Fiery Winds. This is a perfect change in 377 mastery without affecting any other stat. Here is what I have for real numbers:

My Toon's Numbers: 16731 int (mysticism already included); 24,269 spellpower (no inner fire); 827 haste rating (1.95%); 1638 crit rating (10.57%); 6265 mastery rating (46.10%) which goes down to 5888 (44.53%) when I switch offhands.

Tooltip readings: Flash Heal 56,895; 71,965 during spirit shell

The comparisons when subtracting 377 mastery from my offhand and keeping everything else constant:
Flash Heal: 56,895; 71,868 during spirit shell
So I can confirm that mastery has something to do with this calculation, whether through Divine Aegis or some other method.

I thought maybe grace was messing me up, but I have (using the offhand with less mastery)
1 stack: 79,055
2 stacks: 86,242
3 stacks: 93,429
So I know it's not grace applying before the spell hits or something like that.

What I'm working on is how the coefficient changes between the offhand and the non-mastery offhand after dividing crit from the values. So I have:
OH w/Mastery: 71,965 / 1.1057 = 65085.466
OH no Mastery: 71,868 / 1.1057 = 64997.739

So if we use an x variable in both of these to get the original value of the flash heal tooltip
OH w/Mastery: 65085.466 = x * 56,895 THEN x= 1.14395757
OH no Mastery: 64997.739 = x * 56,895 THEN x= 1.14241566

So what I'm trying to figure out is what combination of things is getting that 14.4% and 14.2% multiplier when factoring in the change from going 6265 mastery rating (46.10%) to 5888 mastery (44.53%).
What I'm thinking may be happening is that Spirit Shell isn't using the average tooltip value. The range for flash heal is 55,617 to 58,174.

Also, our formula for prayer of healing is very very close to what the actual in game tooltip reads. With my above listed stats and my mastery offhand, I should have a PoH value of 55537.5055 during spirit shell with the formula that we were originally speculating. But in game, I get 55,676 from the tooltip. SO I'm also checking out the potential of rounding error from the in game tooltips. But the PoH spirit shell example is a difference of 0.25% due to rounding. My flash heal is off by significantly more, so I'm still thinking that I have the wrong formula for it.

my actual mastery value: 1.46104166249 0.99751249
my tooltip for poh: 29025
average non crit heal size * [(1-crit%) + (crit%)*(2+(1+mastery%)*meta gem effect)]
Need some more data points (preferably with really low mastery) but that matches the two you gave with a minor difference probably due to rounding.

It gives 71959 and 71862 (high and low mastery respectively) in my spreadsheet.

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