Use of Noxxic, askmrrobot, etc...

Mage
01/20/2013 04:01 PMPosted by Methusulä
Lol you attempt to demonstrate how smart you are in your bs posts and it only serves to further our point that your wrong. Losing 170 secondary stats isn't unacceptable because of the dps you gain, (which is way off btw) but because of how easy it is to avoid the situation. The Draenei example is hilarious and further illustrates the fact that you are simply wrong. It is acceptable to be very slightly over hit cap. .5% is too far and the demonstration of your knowledge of high school statistics is irrelevant for the purposes of this argument.


So what is the gain from 170 of a secondary stat? I think I asked you to cite your in-depth analysis. Do you know the DPS gain? Once you get me the exact numbers and you realize how meaningless the gain is you'll quickly realize that .5% is still the equivalent of a pedantic argument. Edit: This was found to be 78 DPS below. Perhaps when you're asked to cite sources next time, you'll actually do so. You could have inflated figures to make it seem like it was a huge DPS loss but I found it to be a very minor one which, again, points to pedantic arguments.

Edit: The Draenei argument has no bearing on being wrong or not. It just demonstrates that I haven't played the game since WotLK. Did spell hit undergo drastic changes since then? No. Very bad attempt at straw man. Doesn't seem the average intelligence of this board has moved in either direction either..

However: it's a great example of how a particular raid buff could cause you to go over hit cap just like a particular set of gear could cause you to go over the hit cap despite reforging, gemming, and enchanting efforts thereby rendering your arguments inane and invalid.

Of course, you'll probably spend another page blabbering about a moot point and a remedial gain. Go for it! It's amusing to read. It's funny that, despite it being high school statistics, you still manage to screw it up.
01/20/2013 03:09 PMPosted by Hakuren
It's also completely obvious that you're not involved in anything related to the sciences or engineering.


I was published for work I did in high school and and currently attending university to be an aerospace engineer.

01/20/2013 03:09 PMPosted by Hakuren
Again, incorrect.


Show me where I am incorrect.

01/20/2013 03:09 PMPosted by Hakuren
Reforging 40% of a stat still leaves that remaining stat, dear.


Show me where I said otherwise.

01/20/2013 03:09 PMPosted by Hakuren
To deny a situation where someone would not go over it is very poor form.


40 hit/expertise rating is about .12% hit rating. My gear when reforged changes the stats by anywhere from 170-300. You can mix and match reforging off or onto hit in enough ways that you can easily get within .2-3% under the cap. Thats around 1 out of every 333-500 casts will miss.

Its easy cost versus benefit, sure you could be safe and go over but it does not outweigh the benefits of the opposite.

01/20/2013 05:01 PMPosted by Hakuren
However: it's a great example of how a particular raid buff could cause you to go over hit cap just like a particular set of gear could cause you to go over the hit cap despite reforging, gemming, and enchanting efforts thereby rendering your arguments inane and invalid.


There is no raid buff that increases hit. The only possible buff would be if a person ate hit food, which would make no sense because the primary stat is better no matter what.

Like I said already there is no chance that in a gear set a person would be over hit cap by such an extent. Your range is far too wide.
showmeshowmeshowme


Why? It's already laid out for you.

The original claim: Noxxic and MrRobot will tell you to aim for a hit in this range

Pedantic argument #1: No, .5% is too much

My claim: .5% is an acceptable range given the combinations of available gear for any given mage: endgame or gearing up. If I wanted to generalize about all mages, a wide prediction interval is the best case scenario. If I were to use a smaller range (p/m .01%), I wouldn't be able to make such a claim with the same degree of accuracy.

Pedantic argument #2: No it's not. You lose DPS. (no mention of exactly how much DPS is gained or lost)

Me: The DPS loss is approximately 78. Your argument is pedantic. We're done here.

Quite silly since the OP was asking what the actual hit cap was (answered in the first post) and why it was telling her to use expertise (same thing...first post).

Nothing that ensued was necessary. I'm still waiting on your exact net gain/loss of DPS to confirm my assumption that this can be chalked up to pedantry over a remedial gain or loss.

Thank you for providing the exact conversion, though. Approximately 167 loss of a stat based on 15.5% hit max. So which stat would you like to place this in to bolster your claim that it's a discernible DPS gain?

The interesting thing is that only hit can provide the non-linear gain you are hoping to demonstrate. The difference between 14.5% hit and 15% hit would be greater than the difference between 47.5% mastery and 48% mastery.

Like I said already there is no chance that in a gear set a person would be over hit cap by such an extent. Your range is far too wide.


I want you to remember this statement because I'm about to demonstrate something very critical to engineering below.

01/20/2013 05:16 PMPosted by Hiroran
I was published for work I did in high school and and currently attending university to be an aerospace engineer.


Really? Good luck to you. I don't think you'll get very far, though.

As an electrical engineer with his masters, let me give you some advice for general applications of engineering in the real world. When you report to your boss, you will always want to overestimate. You see, working with aeronautics means you're also indirectly working with peoples' lives.

Let's say you're given a material and told that it can withstand x amount of stress before it breaks. Are you going to choose that value when you go to design the structure you're working on and include that value in the report to your boss? No, of course not. You're going to take that range of values (or max value) and amplify it in your designs.

This is why we have prediction intervals. Hopefully they offer a similar class to you at your university. Should be something titled statistics for engineers/scientists..if you even get that far.
01/20/2013 06:02 PMPosted by Hakuren
When you report to your boss, you will always want to overestimate. You see, working with aeronautics means you're also indirectly working with peoples' lives.


And this is one of the spots where, like I said earlier, you dont need to overestimate. I am all about overestimating because there are almost always factors that one does not know to consider and such, but this is an example where all the factors are easy to see and there isn't an error when reforging. Its always 40% of a stat and you can take it from or to a two different stats that give the same thing.

Btw I took that class last winter, it was titled nearly the exact same name as you cited lol.

Part of the reason you include ranges for tolerance and such is to account for error, there isn't an error when reforging.
Fair enough. You're over confidence (unprofessional in real world applications, btw) in your claim that no mage should ever be over 15% hit for a given gear set is obviously flawed. Hence, why we use intervals. Based on this post, I would say it's a could indication as to how you will fair with your engineering undergraduate studies, though.
http://i.imgur.com/EN9yqkp.png

On the left: my current setup (14.98% hit).

On the right: what MrRobot recommends (15.02% hit).

Feels good to be right. Hopefully you learn the cost you pay for making absolute statements soon before you get out there in the real world.
And to drive the irrefutable point home:

http://i.imgur.com/7IMFRLt.png

http://i.imgur.com/rCLvAux.png
01/20/2013 05:16 PMPosted by Hiroran
Like I said already there is no chance that in a gear set a person would be over hit cap by such an extent. Your range is far too wide.


I am just going to repeat something i said, you should probably pay attention to the words a person uses.
You can easily be at 15.5% hit... but there's zero reason to be. Likewise, you can also easily be at 16%, 17%, 18% hit. This doesn't mean that being half a percent above the hit cap is a good idea. I have no idea why you're trying to sound smart with phrases like "prediction interval" or "non-linear gain", Hakuren. We're not really talking about statistical analysis here, just common sense.

The reason why a 14.5%-> 15.5% hit range is unacceptable is simple:

You'll never need to be half a percent from hit cap, because it's always possible to reforge in such a way that you can be within 0.1% of the cap.
Everyday I am astounded by the new ways in which fools try to appear smart, yet ironically the only task they accomplish with their efforts is displaying their stupidity for all to see.

Why on earth would you bring up statistics? It is entirely irrelevant to reforging.

Do you also bring up the topic of statistics when pulled over by a cop for speeding? Or how about when getting sized for a new suit? When making yourself a sandwich?

I'm truly curious now.
Like I said already there is no chance that in a gear set a person would be over hit cap by such an extent. Your range is far too wide.


I am just going to repeat something i said, you should probably pay attention to the words a person uses.


It's interesting that you would tell someone else to pay attention to the words you use when you've constantly had to be reminded of the words I (and several other posters in many posts cross-forums) have used. Double standard much?

However, I'm sorry: you said that AMR wouldn't provide anything over 15% hit:

So you think there is no possibility that any given random mage will fall within that range?

If you plan on taking statistics, stay away from six sigma. Stay away from prediction intervals. And definitely stay away from confidence intervals.


Reforging has NOTHING to do with statistics and probability...

Their is no good reason for a player to ever go to 15.5% hit rating. It should always be 15% or a bit lower and that "a bit lower" is more dependent on what the individual player gains or loses.


No, you will not weasel your way out of this one this time, I'm afraid. Be careful next time, Hiroran, when picking your fights. You won't always be able to 'refute' a point (which you never had) to death where you assume the other person will eventually lose interest and stop responding. In fact, as you can see: I procured a solid example that contradicted everything you have claimed in this post.

And to drive the irrefutable point home:

http://i.imgur.com/7IMFRLt.png

http://i.imgur.com/rCLvAux.png


http://i.imgur.com/EN9yqkp.png

On the left: my current setup (14.98% hit).

On the right: what MrRobot recommends (15.02% hit).

Feels good to be right. Hopefully you learn the cost you pay for making absolute statements soon before you get out there in the real world.


Your entire argument was destroyed in these posts that demonstrate, from my own gear set out of coincidence, that my prediction interval was not only valid but probably should have been wider. It also demonstrates just how much DPS is loss for %hit over cap.

There's this lovely thing called burden of proof. Your turn. :)

You can easily be at 15.5% hit... but there's zero reason to be. Likewise, you can also easily be at 16%, 17%, 18% hit. This doesn't mean that being half a percent above the hit cap is a good idea. I have no idea why you're trying to sound smart with phrases like "prediction interval" or "non-linear gain", Hakuren. We're not really talking about statistical analysis here, just common sense.

The reason why a 14.5%-> 15.5% hit range is unacceptable is simple:

You'll never need to be half a percent from hit cap, because it's always possible to reforge in such a way that you can be within 0.1% of the cap.


Incorrect. I encourage you to take a look around the forums. You can easily find mages that are at 15.1% hit even after gemming and reforging. I probably should have taken screenshots when I came across them...but it honestly isn't necessary given the data I've presented. .5% over hit cap equates to ~78 DPS loss overall.

http://i.imgur.com/rCLvAux.png

Pretty self-explanatory...you would think. As I recall during the Wrath era, the mage forums were never known for their mathematical aptitude, though. :\

Everyday I am astounded by the new ways in which fools try to appear smart, yet ironically the only task they accomplish with their efforts is displaying their stupidity for all to see.

Why on earth would you bring up statistics? It is entirely irrelevant to reforging.

Do you also bring up the topic of statistics when pulled over by a cop for speeding? Or how about when getting sized for a new suit? When making yourself a sandwich?

I'm truly curious now.


No, you bring up relativistic speeds and the inaccuracy of their radar gun that works using Doppler shifts to account for the moving frame relative to the cop's gun, relativistic mass in regards to the suit, and when making myself a sandwich well...can't I just eat my g'damn sandwich without having to think?

Look up prediction interval and then look up confidence interval. When you fail to understand both, report back and I'll try to dumb it down.

My prediction interval was always (14.5,15.5). Here's my confidence interval:

Reforging has NOTHING to do with statistics and probability...

Their is no good reason for a player to ever go to 15.5% hit rating. It should always be 15% or a bit lower and that "a bit lower" is more dependent on what the individual player gains or loses.


Your confidence interval would, by definition, be much smaller. In general, it's perfectly acceptable.

Theoretical mean value: 15%
Prediction interval: (14.5-15.5)
Confidence interval: (14.9-15.1)


I'm 95% confident mages will fall within 14.9% to 15.1% hit. I am able to ascertain, with high probability, that all mages are within 14.5% to 15.5% hit range. Every. Single. One. When you come to understand how claims are made, this should all make sense.

Hiroran was 100% confident that no mage will be over 15% hit for any given gear combination. I demonstrated that there was a gear combination where AMR recommended I go 15% over hit cap. This is why statistics were brought up: to support a valid claim and to debunk an overconfident kid's claim (who wants to pursue engineering, nonetheless) that suggested he could account for roughly 300,540,195 different combinations of gear. The # is actually quite large but this assumes only 16 different pieces of gear for each slot when there are actually upwards of ~72 different gear options/upgrades per slot.

http://www.icy-veins.com/arcane-mage-wow-pve-dps-gear-loot-best-in-slot
http://www.warcraftrealms.com/census.php?class=Mage [~50k mages worldwide @ 90]

which means the actual number is more towards 26,322,377,293,583,730 combinations. So if you're confident in your ability to generalize about any mage stat for the entire population of mages for 26 quadrillion different gear combinations, you're probably doing it wrong and do not understand basic statistics.

Have a good day.

PS: Please don't ask me to explain relativity to you as well. I might cry.
You all got math'd >.>
02/17/2013 05:21 AMPosted by Supersqueeze
You all got math'd >.>


Actually we didn't, Hakuren just doesn't understand how to apply the math.

02/17/2013 02:51 AMPosted by Hakuren
It's interesting that you would tell someone else to pay attention to the words you use when you've constantly had to be reminded of the words I (and several other posters in many posts cross-forums) have used. Double standard much?


Show me where. You made the claim thus the burden is on you. (Hint this is not an example of me not paying attention. This is you saying I am doing something that I don't believe I did.

02/17/2013 02:51 AMPosted by Hakuren
No, you will not weasel your way out of this one this time, I'm afraid. Be careful next time, Hiroran, when picking your fights. You won't always be able to 'refute' a point (which you never had) to death where you assume the other person will eventually lose interest and stop responding. In fact, as you can see: I procured a solid example that contradicted everything you have claimed in this post.


That was simply my initial claim, if you look at every other one it clearly shows that it can be *little* bit higher. Just like the quote I used of myself. You should pick your words "that contradicted everything" a bit better. 0.03% over cap does not justify .5%

02/17/2013 02:51 AMPosted by Hakuren
Your entire argument was destroyed in these posts that demonstrate, from my own gear set out of coincidence, that my prediction interval was not only valid but probably should have been wider. It also demonstrates just how much DPS is loss for %hit over cap.


No actually these support my argument versus hinder yours. Your argument is that its fine to be .5% over hit cap. My argument, like I quoted, was that your range was far too wide.

Also .02% is <<<<<<< 0.5%

02/17/2013 02:51 AMPosted by Hakuren
Incorrect. I encourage you to take a look around the forums. You can easily find mages that are at 15.1% hit even after gemming and reforging. I probably should have taken screenshots when I came across them...but it honestly isn't necessary given the data I've presented. .5% over hit cap equates to ~78 DPS loss overall.


Are you serious right now? He literally just said you can be .1% within the cap and your rebuttal is that he is wrong because there are so many mages that are at 15.1% after gemming and reforging? That is his exact, literal point.

02/17/2013 02:51 AMPosted by Hakuren
Hiroran was 100% confident that no mage will be over 15% hit for any given gear combination

There is only time time of me saying this, every other time it was your range is far too wide. Like I said please pay attention to the wording, because I definitely will pay attention to yours and use it to prove you are wrong.

02/17/2013 02:51 AMPosted by Hakuren
which means the actual number is more towards 26,322,377,293,583,730 combinations. So if you're confident in your ability to generalize about any mage stat for the entire population of mages for 26 quadrillion different gear combinations, you're probably doing it wrong and do not understand basic statistics.

Once again this would be 100% accurate in wrath. With reforging this is hardly a claim as stats can be reforged out of and into different stats.
Why are you bothering to dissect the words of an idiot? Do you think he's going to suddenly change his mind? Idiots are only surpassed by stubborn idiots.

You, on the other hand, have to be pretty stupid to waste your time arguing with one.
The reason he's pulling down your haste is because the way he's designed to optimize Arcane mages is the following:

Hit (to 15%) > Mastery > Haste > Crit


I just ran myself through simcraft recently and it put haste at a higher value than mastery. Is there some sort of mastery soft cap where it's better to swap to haste? I think I'm around 58% mastery raid buffed.
I have been loling so hard to this thread, PLEASE cont.
I probably won't say too much anymore, but I'll just leave this here:

1. Why would you find it acceptable to be 0.5% percent off hit cap when you can just as easily be 0.2% off hit cap with a different reforge configuration?

And in response to your "170 secondary stat = 78 dps loss" claim:

2. Why I bother enchanting my gloves if it's only going to to be a 78 dps loss? Why would I bother gemming a int/hit gem over a int/spirit gem if it's going to be a 78 dps loss? Why do we even bother to min/max in a raiding setting?
02/17/2013 11:06 AMPosted by Napwneon
Why do we even bother to min/max in a raiding setting?


Because we're obsessive completionists and the act of perfecting a character's statistics is more fun than using said character.

Right?
01/20/2013 12:38 AMPosted by Hakuren
Again, pedantry over remedial and insignificant gains and losses.


Hah, I missed this argument when it was going on but I just thought I should say...

Did you really just spend all that time trying to justify going that far over the hit cap?

And you accuse me of pedantry?

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