Blizzard, Sha and Galleon mounts (Part 4)

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What he said was not precise, but it was reasonably accurate. If you flip a coin 2x the odds of it coming up heads one of those times is 75%. Flip it 3x and the odds increase to 87.5%. Keep flipping it and as the number of flips "increases without bound" the odds approach the limit of 100%. That's basic calculus.


Actually it isn't basic calculus, it is gambler's fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Each flip of the coin is independent of any previous flips, and you still have a .50 percent chance of flipping a heads.


What he stated is not the gambler's fallacy. He clearly stated the chances that the coin came up heads for a single flip in the series, not that it would have a greater chance to show heads for any particular flip.
When Blizzard said things would be Rare in this expansion, THEY MEANT IT...

So rare ... no one will ever have one. Epic ... All those whiners who just LOVE things to be ultra rare so no one else can have one.... Well you won. Now Blizzard is making items no one will ever have.

How does it feel to NOT be a special "Heavenly Onyx" snowflake.
I do wonder, as well. This thread has been void of trolling, and everyone has been having adult-quality conversations.

Yeah, there's some argument over statistics, but everyone is well within casual-adult behavior here. There hasn't been any name calling or anything like that. Curious, indeed.

It's possible you just haven't seen it, because all the posts were deleted.


Well, I mean that I had read every post in this thread individually. I've been on my PC since Thread 4 opened, and just don't recall any sniping going on.

Edit: On another note, we're up to 1,723 posts on this topic.


What he said was not precise, but it was reasonably accurate. If you flip a coin 2x the odds of it coming up heads one of those times is 75%. Flip it 3x and the odds increase to 87.5%. Keep flipping it and as the number of flips "increases without bound" the odds approach the limit of 100%. That's basic calculus.


Actually it isn't basic calculus, it is gambler's fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Each flip of the coin is independent of any previous flips, and you still have a .50 percent chance of flipping a heads.


I understand that, and it is calculus. Each individual flip has a 50% chance, but the odds over the entire set approaches 100%.
02/08/2013 02:51 PMPosted by Daltin
I just noticed the mods are pretty active deleting some posts in this thread.. I wonder what those posts were...


I do wonder, as well. This thread has been void of trolling, and everyone has been having adult-quality conversations.

Yeah, there's some argument over statistics, but everyone is well within casual-adult behavior here. There hasn't been any name calling or anything like that. Curious, indeed.


Alas, that isn't true. This post in general is technically against the code of conduct.

http://us.battle.net/en/community/conduct

As is intentionally bumping a thread, and calling for a "blue" is frowned upon as well

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/900930866

And that is just the thread itself, not mentioning the posts they deleted since I obviously have no idea what they said.

All that being said, I enjoy following this thread because I also want to know if someone links an armory page :)


Actually it isn't basic calculus, it is gambler's fallacy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Each flip of the coin is independent of any previous flips, and you still have a .50 percent chance of flipping a heads.


I understand that, and it is calculus. Each individual flip has a 50% chance, but the odds over the entire set approaches 100%.


and it'll get closer and closer to 100% forever

edit: mmm... maths
At least 2 people have offered a reward for an armory link, one of which was substantial.
Been reading through these threads a bit, and wow - realized the drop rate was really low, never actually thought it might have been bugged or not even seriously implemented.

There's an ongoing joke on my realm that someone in our Sha group will get the world first mount drop xD

Haven't ever been able to get into a Galleon group, though. Never killed him.
Yup. I offered to server transfer and pay up to 200,000 gold for someone who obtained the mount previous to February 6th, 2013.
Well, I mean that I had read every post in this thread individually. I've been on my PC since Thread 4 opened, and just don't recall any sniping going on.

Edit: On another note, we're up to 1,723 posts on this topic.

It's possible they're deleting select posts because they don't want the sheeple figuring out THE TRUTH or something.

Blizzard's methodology is largely inscrutable.

But it seems like a waste of time to do so.

On another note, it seems as though people can still post in the 3rd iteration of this thread.

I think Blizzard didn't want any more iterations to be made and just increased the cap.
02/08/2013 02:48 PMPosted by Mirage
I just noticed the mods are pretty active deleting some posts in this thread.. I wonder what those posts were...


Link or it didn't happen!

j/k
This was just posted on my other thread going

https://twitter.com/Warcraft/status/299619824676528128
02/08/2013 02:28 PMPosted by Ravyne
I don't think you understood what I was saying. When you do something that has a 1% chance over and over again, the chance of you getting the object somewhere in that course of runs increases to the limit of 100%. It's never guaranteed. Certainly not with the scheme I provided.


I am sorry, but that is not true. Each roll is independent of every other roll, so no matter at which number roll, the percent is still 1 percent. Take a coin for example. when you flip a coin, you have a 50 percent chance of it landing heads. By your logic, that would mean you would only have to flip it twice to be guaranteed a heads. You know that is not the case.

Yet, if you flip a coin a million times, roughly half the results are heads. That is how percentages work. With Sha having been killed thousands of times LAST MONTH ALONE, we should have at least 1 percent of the population of Sha killing 90's with this mount (yes I know that's not the drop rate/ correct percentage/ whatever, this is just an illustration). I also recall posting that I swore I saw it. However, I have not been able to provide the evidence to back up my claim; therefore, by my own standards, my claim should be considered invalid until evidence can be given. So, with that pre-explained, the mathematical odds of no one being able to provide clear proof of this mount dropping, coupled with the odds of the mount ACTUALLY DROPPING, causes me to believe that there is something causing the mount to not drop. I realize that the drop chance is per person; however, the same can be said of the chance to win the lottery, and multiple people win that each year. The odds that no one will win the lottery at all next year would be so low, that mathematicians would consider it to be an impossibility. The chances of the Sha mount not dropping once is of a similar percentage, and is thus assumed that the whole thing is bugged, unless proof is given that this is not the case. I, for one, will not accept evidence after Tuesday, as a silent buff would not be unexpected, and you would be largely unable to prove that this was not what happened.
I made a similar offer on a server where someone made a claim to have seen someone get it but couldn't provide names.
All I got was people in trade informing me the same things found on these thread, lol..

I guess that means the word is spreading about this issue.
02/08/2013 03:00 PMPosted by Morgam
On another note, it seems as though people can still post in the 3rd iteration of this thread
Once a thread reaches 500 posts it takes a few seconds for the cap to implement its self, that's why thread 3 goes to #502, if you try to post it won't let you.
This was just posted on my other thread going

https://twitter.com/Warcraft/status/299619824676528128


This tweet was established probably close to 65 pages back. Don't expect newcomers to the thread to know that, just letting you know!

The tweet is very non-urgent, and if anything, made people more upset that the only line of communication was on a social networking site, and not the games' official forums.
wouldn't it be funny if someone got it today ^.^

case closed!
posting to keep track.

/wave
Wall of text, just wanted to cover all bases in one post.
02/08/2013 03:03 PMPosted by Bladestorm
Once a thread reaches 500 posts it takes a few seconds for the cap to implement its self, that's why thread 3 goes to #502, if you try to post it won't let you.

My mistake then.

Threads are weird.

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