So, Grand Crusader changes...

Hey everyone, it's late, and I'm thinking again, and this usually makes for some unforgivable stupidity on my part. However, I'm legitimately curious, so forgive me just this once.

As you may or may not be aware, Blizzard - in all of their vast, not-fixing-Sacred-Shield's-6-second-delay wisdom - has modified Grand Crusader. No longer does it have a 20% chance to trigger off of Crusader Strike and Hammer of the Righteous. Instead, it has a 30% chance to trigger off of a successful dodge or parry.

This makes me wonder. For simplicity's sake, we'll say that I have a 30% chance combined to dodge or parry while in my Protection spec and wearing my tanking gear. This means that roughly one in every three incoming melee attacks will be parried or dodged. Since Grand Crusader has a 30% chance to trigger off of a successful dodged or parried attack, that roughly means that each incoming attack has a 9% chance to trigger it.

Nine percent. That's, what, a 1-in-11 chance? Granted when you're tanking a large trash pack, this is understandable considering how often you'll be dodging and parrying. In fact, by my assumptions it should proc more often than it currently does so long as you're tanking three or more mobs.

However, what of boss fights? I personally wouldn't be a fan of Grand Crusader never triggering by virtue of sheer chance working against me. Sure, Avenger Shield isn't an important part of a Prot paladin's single-target priority, but Holy Power is Holy Power.

Is this going to gimp our single-target Holy Power generation? Or am I missing something important here?

I dunno, like I said it's late and I have no business thinking at this hour. Ignore me.
I'm not sure what a typical boss swing speed is, but it's probably faster than ~4s cooldown on Crusader Strike. So just comparing the proc chances may be misleading; sure, 9% is less than 20%, but the 9% gets rolled more frequently, so the gap may not be as large as it appears.

Also, although AFAIK we don't have numbers yet, the most recent word on this is that they're going to try splitting the difference, with Grand Crusader proccing from both CS/HotR and from avoidance, at a reduced rate for each.

Ultimately, Grand Crusader only accounts for a smallish fraction of total Holy Power generation. Even in the absolute worst case, where it never goes off at all, the other ~90% of your Holy Power will still work fine.
The avoidance-only iteration should give you roughly the same number of procs per minute as the live version on a single target, more on multiple targets. It's only a nerf if you're not being attacked.

We don't know the numbers on the current iteration yet, but if they got the avoidance-only one to be that close then the new one will probably be around the same.

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