Rune of Re-Origination bugged

Bug Report
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Going a little deeper into logs and we are seeing something amiss. I'll update when I have more information.
Going a little deeper into logs and we are seeing something amiss. I'll update when I have more information.


Thanks so much for taking a second look. Really appreciate it!
Thank you I knew there was something not quite right, glad to see a blue confirm it and follow up.
I attacked a training dummy for 6 hours. Here is the log:

http://www.worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-knmw3x5inkgxqwgt/xe/?x=sourcename%3D%22Stenhaldi%22+and+spell%3D%22Re-Origination%22+and+fulltype%3DSPELL_AURA_APPLIED

I had 15.02% haste for that test. I have the 522 Rune of Re-Origination, which has a nominal RPPM proc rate of 0.92 [base value] * 1.15^((528-522)/15) [scaling for item level] * 1.1 [10% buff a month ago] = 0.957 . So the haste-scaled proc rate should be 1.101 procs/minute.

First check: mean proc interval.

The mean proc interval in the above log was 64.95 seconds with standard deviation (of the mean) 2.59 seconds.

Without the bad luck streak prevention mechanic, the mean proc interval should be 22 seconds [icd] - 10 seconds [10 seconds of the icd count toward the proc chance of the first attack thereafter] + 60 sec/min * 1 proc/ (1.101 procs/minute) [the haste-scaled proc rate above] = 66.51 seconds.

With the bad luck streak prevention mechanic, the mean proc interval should be scaled by about 88.44%. This is a result of my math at <http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/8197741003?page=4#79>; I and others have also verified by simulations that it is approximately correct. This means the mean proc interval would be 66.51 seconds * 0.8844 = 58.82 seconds.

In summary, the mean proc interval -
Measured: 64.95±2.59 seconds
Prediction assuming no luck streak prevention: 66.51 seconds (matches the measured value)
Prediction assuming luck streak prevention: 58.82 seconds (discrepant with the measured value by 2.4 standard deviations)

Second check: largest interval

Without luck streak prevention, the cumulative distribution for proc interval t is

exp(-k*t)

with k = 1/AverageProcInterval = 1/(66.51 sec), i.e. an exponential distribution.

However, with luck streak prevention, the cumulative distribution function looks like

exp(-k*t*(1+(k*t/2-1.5)*3)-3.375)

for k*t > 1.5 .

The largest proc interval in that sample was t = 312 seconds. Assuming no luck streak prevention, that has associated probability exp(-312/66.51) = 0.00918. That's a one-in-109 chance -- not particularly unlikely.

However, with luck streak prevention, the associated probability changes to exp(-312/66.51*(1+(312/66.51/2-1.5)*3)-3.375) = 2.13*10^-9. That's one in 468 million -- far more unlikely.

Final check: the distribution of proc intervals

I made a quick histogram of the the above data. It resides here:

http://i.imgur.com/w5darGD.png

(Error bars are approximate)

Superposed on the data are two prediction lines: one (blue) without luck streak prevention and the other (red) with that mechanic. These are just the probability density functions

f(t) = k*exp(-k*t)

for no luck streak prevention and

g(t) = k*exp(-k*t) , if k*t <= 1.5
g(t) = k*(1+(k*t-1.5)*3)*exp(-k*t*(1+(k*t/2-1.5)*3)-3.375) , if k*t > 1.5

with luck streak prevention.

Without doing any further numerical analysis, it's pretty evident that that the data is following the standard exponential distribution of the "no luck streak prevention" prediction line, rather than the distribution with luck streak prevention.
Going a little deeper into logs and we are seeing something amiss. I'll update when I have more information.

Can you fix the other Guardian specific bug too?

<3
We're currently working on a new fix for the Rune of Re-Origination's unlucky streaks.
Thanks!

Not fun getting my first rune proc at the end of my second superliminal proc of the fight :(
I have also been experiencing the same faulty behavior with this trinket since the Tuesday maintenance. The change was immediately noticeable and quite a let down.
Any news? Last night I wasn't seeing a proc at all for up to 3-4mins at times....
BiS trinket bugged, raid in 3 hours. GG Blizzard, breaking things that were working before.
I went about 5 mins without a proc tonight.

http://worldoflogs.com/reports/rt-3bvbcidgwszh5itv/details/8/?s=533&e=861
good to know that something is broke and a fix is in the works. i won it last night and after testing it i pretty much just put it back in my bag. got like 2 procs in 15 mins.... was pretty disappointing.
Greg Street ‏@Ghostcrawler 4h
@Tinderhoof This is just a bug. We fixed it but it broke again. It will be fixed again next restarts.


https://twitter.com/Ghostcrawler/status/325031111816261632
It is a shame we have to wait a week before the fix might be applied.
Please restart the servers before Tuesday. I don't want to have to regem and reforge just so I can use Renataki's for a few days of progression.
Hopefully good news surfaces soon, I was happy to see it proc on pull once and my joy turned to sadness as the raid wiped.
Bad juju also appears to be bugged and not procing enough. Not proccing on pull very often (even when out of combat for awhile), and procced less on every single fight this week compared to the one before. Proced twice during a 5:30 Dumuru kill and 3 times during a 7:33 Consorts. Really bad luck or is anyone else having this problem?
Bad juju also appears to be bugged and not procing enough. Not proccing on pull very often (even when out of combat for awhile), and procced less on every single fight this week compared to the one before. Proced twice during a 5:30 Dumuru kill and 3 times during a 7:33 Consorts. Really bad luck or is anyone else having this problem?


Yeah. I'm seeing the same problem as well.

I have a couple of the Agi trinkets and I don't have any problems with their proc rates except for Bad Juju and Rune of Re-Origination.
a restart would be nice.

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